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Long Game 26: Cognitive Dissonance


Nyali

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So if we follow the pattern so far, does that mean that there is no 'eliminator' kill, just actions? If so far, all the deaths are caused by either the lynch, Joe, or by STINK Suicide, then that seems like maybe the People of Odium or whatever don't really have any kill actions. If that's the case, then they probably use vote manipulation or something close to that instead. These are just some thoughts I'm tossing out.

Also, I'm not quite ready to jump on the Joe bandwagon yet, as he does seem to have made some good points. I'm waiting for some more information as it is.

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7 minutes ago, Bridge Boy said:

That seems like maybe the People of Odium or whatever don't really have any kill actions. If that's the case, then they probably use vote manipulation or something close to that instead.

Umm...so your reasoning is that the PoOoW  haven't used kill actions, so they don't have them. But nobody's used vote manipulations, either, so I'm not sure where you're going with this.

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Just now, Paranoid King said:

Umm...so your reasoning is that the PoOoW  haven't used kill actions, so they don't have them. But nobody's used vote manipulations, either, so I'm not sure where you're going with this.

We're not sure they haven't used vote manipulations. Just because who died didn't change, doesn't mean that the votes haven't changed. Either that, or we're just killing all the wrong people, and they don't need to manipulate it. (The previous is based on my earlier rambling of vote manipulation possibilities.)

And besides, I mentioned in my post that this was a theory that I had, not that I think it's correct, or that I'm working under the assumption. I believe that the PoOoW(Is this the actual acronym?) do have kill actions of some sort, and maybe just haven't used them or something. Or Joe is one of them, and he's the one doing all the killing, and just targeting ghostbloods first. (Or he is really lucky.)

Again, this is just speculation and theory.

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Inactivity could be a factor. Can someone at some point today go through the player list and see who hasn't been participating much, if at all? I doubt Investiture is a problem for Rayse or his Champion (the two players who I reckon would be making the kills). Rayse himself would likely have an ability that can empower his Champion (apparently Wax gained a sudden burst of Investiture from Harmony last turn, so I'm guessing that other shards with Champions can do the same). I wouldn't be surprised if Joe was Odium's Champion, given the fact he doesn't seem concerned with Investiture or laying low (not that he had much of a choice after failing to kill PK). Harmony also informed me that if Wax is killed by the Champion of Odium, he loses all of his Investiture, but if Wax dies by any other means he can select a new one from whoever's alive, at the cost of a decent chunk. As you might guess, the same thing applies to Rayse and his Champion, but I doubt he could convert anyone who wasn't already on his team, apart from maybe those Independents that have an [Evil] tag

 

 

Edited by Amanuensis
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In response to that, Victor(?) I know that Orlok has been pretty inactive. I was in a WPM with him last cycle, and he never said anything, day or night. I can't really remember him posting in the thread either, but he must have, since he hasn't been kicked for inactivity yet. Hope this helps?

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Purple text is Aman speaking :P I'm mobile right now and half asleep so I can't bother to do in-character stuff at the moment. That being said, the inactivity filter in this game is very soft. If there is a pinch-hitter available a player will be replaced after 5 turns of inactivity. However, last I checked, Daniyah was the only pinch-hitter after Burnt, and Iohn was considerably more inactive (hasn't said a single thing all game, unlike Orlok).

Edited by Amanuensis
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For clarification, I'll call anyone with 5 or fewer posts inactive.

  • Mage: Active
  • Doc: Active
  • Iohn (Daniyah): Inactive (0 posts)
  • Conquestor: Inactive (1 post)
  • Stick: Inactive (3 posts)
  • Joe: Active
  • Rae: Active
  • PK: Active
  • Silverblade: Active
  • Mint: Active
  • Ecthelion: Active
  • Bard: Active
  • Wilson: Active
  • Elenion: Active
  • Darkness: Active
  • Araris: Inactive (5 posts)
  • Wonko: Active
  • Sheep: Active
  • Straw: Active
  • Aman: Active
  • Bugsy: Active
  • Orlok: Inactive (1 post)
  • Dowanx: Inactive (5 posts)
  • Sart: Inactive (4 posts)
  • Lopen: Active
  • Mark: Active
  • Legend: Inactive (5 posts)
  • Clanky: Active
  • Bridge: Active
  • Dalinar: Active
  • Hael: Inactive (4 posts)
  • Luckat: Active
  • Stink: Active
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2 hours ago, Paranoid King said:

So 2 nights have gone by without a GoH kill, and 1 day has gone by without a lynch.

This could mean a few different things:

  1. Either the GoH don't have a kill,
  2. the GoH don't have a goal related to killing people,
  3. the GoH have a goal to kill the ghostbloods,
  4. Or the eliminators are all inactive.

I'm suddenly nervous that it's the third option. Joe.

It could very well be that like me, the GOH are all pursuing their own personal goals at the time, and don't want to risk killing the wrong player. Have you thought of that?

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

I am going to vote for Joe as well, partly because I am suspicious of the fact he is described as "malicious darkness" in the write up, and partly because of a culmination of other factors I will have to articulate later since I really should be asleep right now. Mostly, I would like some context about why he is hunting down the Ghostbloods.

Speaking of, @Dalinar Kholin, am I right about you being the last Ghostblood, or at least one of? I swear i saw you post their name in pink before anyone else, and then noticed you edited it to black shortly after. On D1 I accidentally did the same thing when I colored Adonalsium with the Children's green, so it made me believe you went through a similar "oh crap" moment. I then told my PM about it, which included PK, who promptly asked Joe in thread, to which after a short delay he said pink, which meant either he was telling the truth or that one of the very few players at the time were a spy for him. Bard later confirmed he saw pink when he scanned Mage.

If I'm right about you being a Ghostblood, I am willing to help you avenge your teammates by lynching him in exchange for a public release of your factions win con and all of the characters that your PM suggests are in this game. I would also love to hear anything else you're willing to share, but those are the two things I'm interested in primarily. If I'm wrong about you being a Ghostblood... well, then you have a LOT of explaining to do about why you used that particular shade of pink.

I asked Elbereth about that last night, and she said it was supposed to be describing Death in general. 

1 hour ago, Arraenae said:

Joe, how much Investiture do you have? You attacked two people in a row, and your attack cost between 3 and 7 Investiture each time. Assuming 3 each time, that cost 6 total. Assuming 7 each, that cost 14 total. That's a lot more Investiture than what I started with.

Yeah, i'm going to abosrb stromlihgt from a shere I have before i take any other action. I've blitzed through 14 investiture already, so I need to recharge. (The 14 didn't come just from kills though)

1 hour ago, Wonko the Sane said:

I will second that vote for Joe, because I want him to tell us more about who he is. Joe, right now you are the only player who has killed someone. That's a little worrying. Is there anything you can tell us to set our minds at ease?

I won't be killing tonight. That's about all I can offer.

 

5 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

Joe, do you have anything to say in your defense?

I woke up like twenty minutes ago PK. Be patient.

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23 minutes ago, The Only Joe said:

It could very well be that like me, the GOH are all pursuing their own personal goals at the time, and don't want to risk killing the wrong player. Have you thought of that?

That seems fairly unlikely. Most of the time, I doubt faction goals will disagree with personal goals. (For example, I don't think Dalinar will be asked to give Sadeas his sword if Sadeas is a GoH.) So killing Children won't hurt.

On the subject of killing children, if they have a kill but aren't using it, why wouldn't they? If they use it now then people might be able to guess the planet they're on. But if they use it later, more Independents and Ghostbloods will be dead, so they'll be even more likely to be found.

And on the subject of not knowing who's a child, plenty of people have claimed. Just aim for one of those people. After all, why not aim for Joe? He's claimed child, and he has the ability to kill people. Seems like a dangerous role to leave lying around. The fact that they haven't killed you makes me more suspicious.

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There are dozen's of reasons I can think of to not kill a child with a kill role. What if they have a role redirect and want to control me? What if they can convert players? What if There were no GoH on Roshar? What if they also want to kill the  Ghostbloods, and are perfectly happy with letting me kill them all?

Point is, we don't know why they're not killing. We don't have near enough information on them.

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3 hours ago, AliasSheep said:

Yes.

Well, I hate to ruin this lovely conversation about death and killing, but I'm going to respond to this now. Kay? Kay.

Yeah, I'm an independent. I posted last day cycle who I was exactly, and what some of my goals are as well, so that might be worth checking out.

As you were, gentleman.

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2 hours ago, The Only Joe said:

Yeah, i'm going to abosrb stromlihgt from a shere I have before i take any other action. I've blitzed through 14 investiture already, so I need to recharge. (The 14 didn't come just from kills though)

I won't be killing tonight. That's about all I can offer.

So you don't have enough investiture left to make a kill then? You seem to be trying to avoid Arranaes question about that.

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I just woke up and got stuff to do, but I just wanted to inform everyone that an Awakener has told Harmony that when this game started, Joe was the only player on his planet to begin with a Blinding amount of investiture. As Harmony's confidant, I will also inform you that he has a good amount of investiture (over 200) and the innate power of a Vessel makes it so any situation that they would die, including the lynch, they lose 100 investiture instead. Unfortunately Awakeners can't get exact numbers, but based on Joe not hesitating to kill and the fact that he is now claiming he wants to save his investiture to survive, I think he might be Rayse himself. As far as I'm aware, there aren't any other abilities that save someone from the lynch, so...

Joe, why is your goal to kill the Ghostbloods? Why did you start with over 30 investiture? So far you have described nothing about yourself that points to anything but GoH, if not Rayse's Champion or Odium himself, so really, I would like to know more.

Edited by Amanuensis
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