Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[Alvron he/him]

9 minutes ago, Sapphire Elephant said:

If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine. 

You won't be struck down. Oh no. You're going to live. You're going to live a long, long time.

[xxGaea]

Turn has ended, no posts after this one will be considered valid!

[A Joe in the Bush]

---

Guest103492 was lynched! They were a Roleless Spammer!

Player List

 

(3) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Metabardnition, Crimsn
(1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind,
(1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
(1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
(1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
(1) Aranduensis: Mailliw772,
(5) Guest103492: HPoLT, tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Gammalv. Jon

Edited March 24, 2019 by A Joe in the Bush

[I think I am here. he/him]

Oh, yay! Spammer is gone! This makes me want to recheck stuff happening last cycle, and next Week (Day) do we still want to lynch Road?

Something I thought of: if Road was a spammer who had a powerful role, then it makes me think to save him the elims wouldn’t just swing the lynch to a villager, but would probably bus one of their non-role teammates to keep the suspicion firmly off of Road for a while, as they were lynch competitors.

This bus could especially work if the theory discussed earlier last Week (Day) were true, that there is a larger amount of elims than usual. It’s an interesting tactic I want to discuss.

And also: My vote from Road is gone. @A Joe in the Bush is that a mistake? Because if it isn’t then that means the opposing side also had some sort of vote manip available.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Just now, I think I am here. said:

My vote from Road is gone. @A Joe in the Bush is that a mistake? Because if it isn’t then that means the opposing side also had some sort of vote manip available.

That is not a mistake.

[Furamirionind]

Hahahahaha.

Ok, Guest being a spammer means makes Rae and Wilson look pretty good right now. So unless the spammers are going to use their convert/extra kill N1, that seems pretty good.

I feel like those last minute vote shifts by Gammalv would be unlikely to be from a spammer knowing they could be condemning a teammate. Especially having left the vote on Guest.

Ninjad

5 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

This bus could especially work if the theory discussed earlier last Week (Day) were true, that there is a larger amount of elims than usual. It’s an interesting tactic I want to discuss.

Hmm, I Didn't think of that

5 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

And also: My vote from Road is gone. @A Joe in the Bush is that a mistake? Because if it isn’t then that means the opposing side also had some sort of vote manip available.

Well, that means there is a village vote manip role... Granted, that isn't super surprising.

I did a quick search for guest in the thread, but I will probably do a more thorough reading... ... Umm, maybe not. Tomorrow I have a 12 hour robotics meeting so... We will see when I have time.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Elandera she/her]

7 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

And also: My vote from Road is gone. @A Joe in the Bush is that a mistake? Because if it isn’t then that means the opposing side also had some sort of vote manip available.

What do you mean "opposing side"? We know all of the roles of the Spammers (which I can't find any direct vote manipulation), so are you then opposed to the village? Also, I doubt spammers would remove a vote from the only other valid target available when theirs was second in line.

[Sapphire Elephant]

Well that turned out a lot better than I was imagining it would go. Alrighty then. 

[I think I am here. he/him]

47 minutes ago, Elandera said:

What do you mean "opposing side"? We know all of the roles of the Spammers (which I can't find any direct vote manipulation), so are you then opposed to the village? Also, I doubt spammers would remove a vote from the only other valid target available when theirs was second in line.

I meant opposing side as in those lynching Guest as opposed to Road. Meaning that the vote manip had to belong to one of them, I assume.

[Elandera she/her]

6 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

I meant opposing side as in those lynching Guest as opposed to Road. Meaning that the vote manip had to belong to one of them, I assume.

That makes more sense. It's possible someone village voting on Guest had a good hunch on them, and opposed killing Road for inactivity. I'm up far past my bedtime, so I may have been reading a bit too much into your word choice.

[I think I am here. he/him]

3 minutes ago, Elandera said:

That makes more sense. It's possible someone village voting on Guest had a good hunch on them, and opposed killing Road for inactivity. I'm up far past my bedtime, so I may have been reading a bit too much into your word choice.

No worries. Do you think we should still lynch Road after. I say if nothing substantial gets revealed we do, but of course between this Night and next Day something will lead our suspicions to another player.

But I’m still wondering about the things I said in my original post, about a potential bus to get suspicion off of Road.

有沒有很早以前就知道了⋯⋯但不知道要做什麼事也是有人認為吃過飯店級的比賽真的要說清楚、他自己也很早以前我也想要

一樣產品是安全無毒有機的人不要把持的確會長⋯⋯你也可以的時候才來幾時要記的女人們

都不

知道是否會談。ㄉ的

[Elandera she/her]

40 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

But I’m still wondering about the things I said in my original post, about a potential bus to get suspicion off of Road.

It's possible, but the manip to me seems village, since we know the elim roles and not need seem to have apparent manipulation. However, that's based on a quick refresher skim, so I could be wrong. 

A bus off Road toward Guest if they're both elim doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Up until the last 12 hours or so, there were plenty of other, better candidates to attempt that kind of move that wouldn't include killing their own. It's still possible that some elims bussed (knowing they'd lose a roleless), but I don't think it was to save Road.

I hope that all makes sense. Again, still up way past my bedtime.

[I think I am here. he/him]

17 minutes ago, Elandera said:

It's possible, but the manip to me seems village, since we know the elim roles and not need seem to have apparent manipulation. However, that's based on a quick refresher skim, so I could be wrong. 

A bus off Road toward Guest if they're both elim doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Up until the last 12 hours or so, there were plenty of other, better candidates to attempt that kind of move that wouldn't include killing their own. It's still possible that some elims bussed (knowing they'd lose a roleless), but I don't think it was to save Road.

I hope that all makes sense. Again, still up way past my bedtime.

No worries, but yeah, it makes sense. Something to consider as well is the fact that while my logic that Sapphire could be a Babaji target (he’s the conversion one, right?) doesn’t quite hold up, I still think that Rae and Wilson could possibly be targets for tonight, seeing as to how the lynch has somewhat made them trusted villagers.

We can PM, right? I think I might try that out, though PMing is not my usual style in these games.

[DeTess she/her]

So, it's going to be one of those games, is it? 

 The final vote tally on Guest was HPoLT(Rae), tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Gammalv and Jon

@A Joe in the Bush, I assume 'Jon' is jondesu? If that's the case, some interesting vote manipulation happened there as well.

I feel pretty good about most of the initial vote train (Rae, tiny wilson, steel and Gammalc), but we should keep in mind that it's happened before that an elim snuck on an early wagon like this to get themselves set for the rest of the game.

I'd like to highlight @Crimsn Chanarach's vote, however, as they where the only one involved in the tie shenanigans that only voted to create a tie in favor of guest. Though they did a decent amount of analysis of the situation in the spot before their vote, they never seemed to seriously consider the possibility of guest being evil, and suggested that the voting happened more because of the village ' hating counterproductive roleplay more than inactivity'. This makes me pretty suspicious of them,as I'm seeing a bunch of low-key and not so low-key defenses of guest here.

 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Wow! Great job for those of you who voted for Guest. I don't remember anything off the top of my head about them so I'll go read all of their posts and posts directed at them to see if I can glean any meaningful analysis. Kinda feel bad I didn't participate at all but was a bit busy last night 

EDIT:

Only 6 posts, and the first 3 were entirely unrelated to the game 

Oh yeah. Pretty weak vote on Rae, which means there's like a 70% chance of her not being a Spammer too (random calculation to represent my feelings on the matter). The fact that she immediately called it out as Bandwagoning before he decided to back off in the last two posts could mean it's a distancing attempt, but... eh. I think it's fine if we trust her for now.

For Guests' following two posts:

 

Edited March 23, 2019 by Adavantos

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

*sigh* This game is super active, which is excellent, but there’s also a lot of content to go through. I’ll see if I can get a short post together, especially with analysis of Guest. 

EDIT: So Guest’s posts themselves really didn’t turn up much at all. As many had correctly identified, he was mostly trolling, and tried to get Rae lynched on a bandwagon, which was essentially the entirety of what he posted. He did seem to soft-defend Roadwalker, though as Road was inactive, and as he had equal incentive to pocket Road as to defend a teammate, I’m not reading too far into that. 

Of more interest is Guest’s lynch. I’d say I’m most suspicious of Devotary, Alv and Steel for their roles in last cycle’s lynch, in roughly that order, and will elaborate further when I have more time. 

Edited March 23, 2019 by Seventh Saint

[Steeldancer he/him]

I feel vindicated. I said last day that trolling would be used as a screen to prevent suspicion. And that’s EXACTLY WHAT GUEST WAS DOING. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

Okay so, I'm going to do some vote-by-vote analysis to see if there's anything more we can learn. For conveniences sake, I'll start with the last vote tally I wrote up.

Quote

• (4) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Sapphire Elephant, ITIAH, Metabardnition, 
• (1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind, 
• (1) Elandera: Aranduensis,
• (1) A Joe In The Bush: Jondesu,
• (1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
• (1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
• (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw773,
• (1) Guest103492: HPoLT,

First change that happens is Arand removes his vote from Elandera, which doesn't really change anything.

Quote

• (4) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Sapphire Elephant, ITIAH, Metabardnition, 
• (1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind, 
• (1) Elandera: Aranduensis,
• (1) A Joe In The Bush: Jondesu,
• (1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
• (1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
• (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw773,
• (1) Guest103492: HPoLT,

Next change is that wilson joins High Priest's vote on Guest, putting them in second place. Then, in very quick succession, Steel follows wilson's example and Gammalv creates a tie while praying to the Gods of Luck and Chance as if he was Alv himself.

Quote

• (4) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Sapphire Elephant, ITIAH, Metabardnition, 
• (4) Guest103492: HPoLT, tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Gammalv Fiend, 
• (1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind, 
• (1) Elandera: Aranduensis,
• (1) A Joe In The Bush: Jondesu,
• (1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
• (1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
• (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw773,

Of the three votes, Gammalv's looks the cleanest. I don't really get wilson's, if I'm honest, since it has no real explanation. And what's even weirder is Steel's vote! He specifically says he's "inclined to agree with Tiny" when literally the only thing wilson said was "My best guess is Guest". If there were any Spammers trying to get some cred from Guest's lynch, my bets would be there.

Anyway, next Sapphire switches their vote to Guest, breaking the tie in favor of the Spammer. In response, Gammalv brings the tie back by switching his vote as well.

Quote

• (4) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Sapphire Elephant, ITIAH, Metabardnition, Gammalv Fiend, 
• (4) Guest103492: HPoLT, tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Gammalv Fiend, Sapphire Elephant,
• (1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind, 
• (1) Elandera: Aranduensis,
• (1) A Joe In The Bush: Jondesu,
• (1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
• (1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
• (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw773,

Now this is where things get a little chaotic. Sapphire returns their vote to Roadwalker and Crimsn joins the vote against Roadwalker as well, who says he's getting involved just to prevent any more back-and-forth voting. While I might consider doing the same thing if I were a villager, I want to note that this could be Crimsn attempting to save his teammate, Guest. In response, Gammalv also switches his vote back to Guest, bringing it to 5 v 4.

Quote

• (5) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Sapphire Elephant, ITIAH, Metabardnition, Gammalv Fiend, Sapphire Elephant, Crimsn Chanarach, 
• (4) Guest103492: HPoLT, tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Gammalv Fiend, Sapphire Elephant, Gammalv Fiend,
• (1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind, 
• (1) Elandera: Aranduensis,
• (1) A Joe In The Bush: Jondesu,
• (1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
• (1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
• (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw773,

And if not for Sapphire's last minute retraction from Roadwalker, the Spammers might have gotten away with it, too! Instead things end up as a tie in the end...

Quote

• (4) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Sapphire Elephant, ITIAH, Metabardnition, Gammalv Fiend, Sapphire Elephant, Crimsn Chanarach, 
• (4) Guest103492: HPoLT, tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Gammalv Fiend, Sapphire Elephant, Gammalv Fiend,
• (1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind, 
• (1) Elandera: Aranduensis,
• (1) A Joe In The Bush: Jondesu,
• (1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
• (1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
• (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw773,

Except... what's this?

10 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

• (3) reklawdaoR: Elandera, Metabardnition, Crimsn
• (5) Guest103492: HPoLT, tiny wilson, NotASteelClone, Gammalv, Jon
• (1) High Priest of Lord Tekiel: Furamirionind,
• (1) Gammalv Fiend: Araris Valerian,
• (1) ITIAH: Cadmium Compounder,
• (1) NotASteelClone: Seventh Saint,
• (1) Aranduensis: Mailliw772,

Two votes have changed! ITIAH's vote was removed from Roadwalker, and Jondesu's vote was moved from A Joe In the Bush to Guest! Surely the Spammers didn't see this coming. But does that really mean they could have been involved? Personally, I'm not so sure Crimsn would go out of the way to save a roleless teammate. The suspicion on Guest might have been de-fusible, but if it meant dragging another player down along with him later... I don't really believe that would be worth it. Especially since they probably wouldn't be roleless too.

So what do I think? I think Crimsn, Steel, and to a lesser extent, wilson, all should be looked at with a bit of scrutiny going forward. I think Sapphire is undeniably village (which is sad since that's confirmed by game mechanics already), and I think Gammalv is most certainly a villager too. High Priest can go either way depending on if it was distancing or not, but I really don't think we have enough on High Priest to say either way.

Edited March 23, 2019 by Adavantos
Missed a justification

[Steeldancer he/him]

19 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Steel

I’m confused. Why am I suspicious again? I didn’t get that out of your analysis. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

6 minutes ago, NotASteelClone said:

I’m confused. Why am I suspicious again? I didn’t get that out of your analysis. 

It's the context of your vote, explained here, that confuses me.

26 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Of the three votes, Gammalv's looks the cleanest. I don't really get wilson's, if I'm honest, since it has no real explanation. And what's even weirder is Steel's vote! He specifically says he's "inclined to agree with Tiny" when literally the only thing wilson said was "My best guess is Guest". If there were any Spammers trying to get some cred from Guest's lynch, my bets would be there.

Considering the only thing Wilson said regarding Guest was that he was his best guess, I don't understand why you would be inclined to agree with him. There's nothing to agree with there.

[Steeldancer he/him]

27 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

It's the context of your vote, explained here, that confuses me.

Considering the only thing Wilson said regarding Guest was that he was his best guess, I don't understand why you would be inclined to agree with him. There's nothing to agree with there.

Oh, yeah, that wasn’t what I was agreeing with Tiny about. I was agreeing about Roadwalker possibly having a role that prevented him from talking. 

[Amanuensis he/him]

1 minute ago, NotASteelClone said:

Oh, yeah, that wasn’t what I was agreeing with Tiny about. I was agreeing about Roadwalker possibly having a role that prevented him from talking. 

Ah, hah, sorry. That was a fault of me not reading the whole post. No idea how I skimmed over the rest. My bad 

[Walin he/him]

Uh, I know I'm not on the player list and I didn't post on Week 1, but I signed up before signups were over--can I join the game and never post again? Or if I'm not a player, can I still post in the thread, giving cryptic feedback and analysis without making actions?

[Steeldancer he/him]

45 minutes ago, Walin said:

Uh, I know I'm not on the player list and I didn't post on Week 1, but I signed up before signups were over--can I join the game and never post again? Or if I'm not a player, can I still post in the thread, giving cryptic feedback and analysis without making actions?

Rip walin

[Amanuensis he/him]

48 minutes ago, Walin said:

Uh, I know I'm not on the player list and I didn't post on Week 1, but I signed up before signups were over--can I join the game and never post again? Or if I'm not a player, can I still post in the thread, giving cryptic feedback and analysis without making actions?

Honestly if the GM's can't add you in because of conflicts with game balance, I would happily give you my slot. I'd rather someone else have fun over me if it means them missing out otherwise. @xxGaea @A Joe in the Bush

Edited March 23, 2019 by Adavantos