Long Game 54: Cognitive Diversions

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

The main way I see for Rath to currently be a convert is if he used up all but two lives bonding other people, lost a life to the lynch, and then was converted last night, which would mean nobody was converted during the day. I don't think that's particularly likely, so chances are good that Rath is still a villager. The risks of him being converted later are somewhat higher, though I want to think that Rath encouraging the elims to kill him suggests that he has enough lives left to be immune to conversion.

6 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Jokes aside, I think i would be comfortable lynching any of Fura, Sart, Devotary, or Levitaph(probably my top suspect for Sja-Anat at the moment, mostly just because no one else really makes sense to me). Not sure who I'd most prefer to lynch though. I need to do some more analyzing and info digging.

So you've moved Levitaph all the way up on your Sja-Anat suspect list, and are now on the convert hunt. It is probable that a couple of the more active players are converts, though I would not necessarily rule out anyone who's been around to vote and submit actions. I've said that Rath is an unlikely convert, a Cryptic isn't the most valuable role for an elim team, and I've been thinking Sart wasn't evil on D2. That leaves an unfortunate number of players as possibilities, so we'll have to check whose opinions rapidly changed from cycle to cycle.  Also, did you make liquid metal C1 and then gather the essences necessary to make a large fire later on, or did you use your early fire and oil to create the large fire you burned Ark with?

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Lum has been a serious contender for the lynch every single cycle so far.  C1 there was a counter bandwagon away from Lum, C2 it was neck in neck between Fifth and Lum, C3 it was between Lum and Rath.  Someone that, apperantly Dapper thought was the Stormfather all along? I am not sure how he was led to that conclusion, but evil!Dapper likely would have wanted to vote on Rath that lynch then to remove a life. (I am on mobile, so I havent checked his actual vote placement yet).  While we wouldnt gain as much info from a village!Lum as an evil!Lum, that is always the case.

With Rath confirmed Stormfather, I'm pretty sure that the D1 and D2 swings were not both the result of elims attempting to save a teammate(see my D3 post). Dapper voted on Lum yesterday(oddly, with an emoticon that made Sart change his vote. I'm not sure what's going on there). Of the remaining people who swung the D2 lynch, Levitaph barely showed up and didn't vote, while you voted for Rath before anyone voted for Lum. The problem with an information lynch on a village Lum is that if Lopen's guesses are right about the current number of elims, it would be very easy to end up 6-4 next cycle, which could get very ugly if our habitual non-voters are villagers. I don't know how likely it is for Lum to be village though. While elim!Rath+Lum turned out to be a flawed theory, Lum is still a major Sja-Anat suspect.

[+Ark1002]

7 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Also,  Ark confirmed eliminator.

How did he know???

[Lumgol she/her]

2 minutes ago, Ark1002 said:

How did he know???

GAAAAAAAAASP

[Steeldancer he/him]

I am going to change rollover for this cycle to 8PM EDT, so an hour later than it is. Because apparently a ton of things in my life happen at 7PM EDT. I might keep it at 8, depending on what my schedule ends up being in the future. Thanks for being understanding. 

[Sart he/him]

Operating under the assumption that if Lumgol was Sja-Ajanat, they would have converted someone before Day 2, since they were getting so much suspicion. Further, I'm discounting the possibility of Lumgol being a convert. If they wanted a convert who was suspicious as an IKYK, they could have taken me, and gained vote manipulation.

So, if Lumgol is Sja-Ajanat, then who was their first conversion? It couldn't be Levitaph or Ark, since they both voted on Lumgol Day 2. Likewise, Lumgol voted on Dapper, so that is unlikely. Rath is the Stormfather, and also voted on Lumgol Day 3. Lumgol voted on Lopen Day 3. I voted on him for a split second, before panicking due to Dapper's vote, which I assumed was a last minute attempt to save a teammate. Furamirionind and Ark are now voting on him this cycle, although that could be a bus.

Okay, so if Lumgol is Sja-Ajanat, barring any busing shenanigans, their first convert would have to be Snipexe, Devotary, Shqueeves or Xinoehp. Of those four candidates, only Devotary seems to make any sense. Both Snipexe and Xinoehp were inactive Day 1, and Shqueeves only placed a vote on Fifth via RNG. And as I look at Devotary's posts, they have expressed mild suspicion of Lumgol as well.

So, every living player has either expressed suspicion of Lumgol, or has been seriously inactive. Thus, Lumgol is definitely not Sja-Ajanat. Therefore, we need to find an alternate lynch target and fast. I'm going to vote on Furamirionind. Why? Honestly, I'm not sure. I know Elandera was killed early, presumably because of how well she did as an Eliminator in my Mid-Range. The only living players who were following that game are Lumgol, Devotary, and Furamirionind. Since I've cleared Lumgol of being Sja-Ajanat, that leaves Devotary and Furamirionind. I suspect both of them, but I will vote on Furamirionind to start with, as they will be participating in the Mafia Championship soon, and I don't want them distracted with this game.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Sart
Greened out vote

[old man moomba he/him]

3 minutes ago, Sart said:

Operating under the assumption that if Lumgol was Sja-Ajanat, they would have converted someone before Day 2, since they were getting so much suspicion. Further, I'm discounting the possibility of Lumgol being a convert. If they wanted a convert who was suspicious as an IKYK, they could have taken me, and gained vote manipulation.

So, if Lumgol is Sja-Ajanat, then who was their first conversion? It couldn't be Levitaph or Ark, since they both voted on Lumgol Day 2. Likewise, Lumgol voted on Dapper, so that is unlikely. Rath is the Stormfather, and also voted on Lumgol Day 3. Lumgol voted on Lopen Day 3. I voted on him for a split second, before panicking due to Dapper's vote, which I assumed was a last minute attempt to save a teammate. Furamirionind and Ark are now voting on him this cycle, although that could be a bus.

Okay, so if Lumgol is Sja-Ajanat, barring any busing shenanigans, their first convert would have to be Snipexe, Devotary, Shqueeves or Xinoehp. Of those four candidates, only Devotary seems to make any sense. Both Snipexe and Xinoehp were inactive Day 1, and Shqueeves only placed a vote on Fifth via RNG. And as I look at Devotary's posts, they have expressed mild suspicion of Lumgol as well.

So, every living player has either expressed suspicion of Lumgol, or has been seriously inactive. Thus, Lumgol is definitely not Sja-Ajanat. Therefore, we need to find an alternate lynch target and fast. I'm going to vote on Furamirionind. Why? Honestly, I'm not sure. I know Elandera was killed early, presumably because of how well she did as an Eliminator in my Mid-Range. The only living players who were following that game are Lumgol, Devotary, and Furamirionind. Since I've cleared Lumgol of being Sja-Ajanat, that leaves Devotary and Furamirionind. I suspect both of them, but I will vote on Furamirionind to start with, as they will be participating in the Mafia Championship soon, and I don't want them distracted with this game.

I voted for Lum 'cause I wanted to be a cheeky Voidbringer.

I don't see your logic for voting on Fura, though

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

So, every living player has either expressed suspicion of Lumgol, or has been seriously inactive. Thus, Lumgol is definitely not Sja-Anat. Therefore, we need to find an alternate lynch target and fast. I'm going to vote on [Furamirionind]. Why? Honestly, I'm not sure. I know Elandera was killed early, presumably because of how well she did as an Eliminator in my Mid-Range. The only living players who were following that game are Lumgol, Devotary, and Furamirionind. Since I've cleared Lumgol of being Sja-Ajanat, that leaves Devotary and Furamirionind.

Especially since Lum has survived greater lynch tallies than this, I wouldn't necessarily say that the current votes on Lum are a bus even if both she and at least one voter is evil. There would still be 19 hours for them to change their votes, and it's the votes at the end that matter. If you're discarding people as D1 converts based on inactivity though, Snipexe had one post while Ark didn't show up at all.

I'm not really seeing the logic behind saying that Elandera was probably killed for her performance in a game that only four living players participated in, and thus one of those four players must be evil.  There were other plausible reasons for Elandera's death discussed at the beginning of D2, though I do see that Fura agreed that your proposed motivation was possible.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

11 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The main way I see for Rath to currently be a convert is if he used up all but two lives bonding other people, lost a life to the lynch, and then was converted last night, which would mean nobody was converted during the day. I don't think that's particularly likely, so chances are good that Rath is still a villager. The risks of him being converted later are somewhat higher, though I want to think that Rath encouraging the elims to kill him suggests that he has enough lives left to be immune to conversion.

So you've moved Levitaph all the way up on your Sja-Anat suspect list, and are now on the convert hunt. It is probable that a couple of the more active players are converts, though I would not necessarily rule out anyone who's been around to vote and submit actions. I've said that Rath is an unlikely convert, a Cryptic isn't the most valuable role for an elim team, and I've been thinking Sart wasn't evil on D2. That leaves an unfortunate number of players as possibilities, so we'll have to check whose opinions rapidly changed from cycle to cycle.  Also, did you make liquid metal C1 and then gather the essences necessary to make a large fire later on, or did you use your early fire and oil to create the large fire you burned Ark with?

With Rath confirmed Stormfather, I'm pretty sure that the D1 and D2 swings were not both the result of elims attempting to save a teammate(see my D3 post). Dapper voted on Lum yesterday(oddly, with an emoticon that made Sart change his vote. I'm not sure what's going on there). Of the remaining people who swung the D2 lynch, Levitaph barely showed up and didn't vote, while you voted for Rath before anyone voted for Lum. The problem with an information lynch on a village Lum is that if Lopen's guesses are right about the current number of elims, it would be very easy to end up 6-4 next cycle, which could get very ugly if our habitual non-voters are villagers. I don't know how likely it is for Lum to be village though. While elim!Rath+Lum turned out to be a flawed theory, Lum is still a major Sja-Anat suspect.

I did create Liquid Metal C1, yes. I actually used Fire and Plant to make a Large Fire.

At this point, yeah, I'm not sure we can win if we mislynch again. Which makes an information lynch a really bad idea. As for Lum, I do think the only way she's evil is if she's Sja-Anat, but I just don't think she is. That leaves me with pretty much Levitaph I think.

If this were the board game Clue, here is my official guess!

Levitaph - Sja-Anat
Fura - Convert
Devotary - Convert

Sart - Village right now, but the elims aren't going after him in thread because they want to convert him this upcoming Night Turn. They want to use a suicide conversion alongside their kill(s) to hammer next Cycle. I say kill(s) because it's possible they have an Ashspren.

As such, Sart, if you are village, I think lynching Levitaph this Turn is our best shot at winning, so you can't get converted and the village keeps your vote manipulation. I will help lynch Fura if you're not comfortable with lynching Levitaph, but for now I'm voting Levitaph.

Here's some more explanation as to why I think this is the elim team. First of all, Devotary and Fura were trusted by Fifth because they claimed provable roles early on. I think this rules them out for being Sja-Anat. Sart and Snipexe have all but proven their roles. Xino and Shqueeves have been too inactive to be Sja-Anat(in my opinion). Rath is the Stormfather. Ark claimed Stonespren and Burning Snipexe. Lying about your role in thread on D3 is too risky for Sja-Anat I think, because there's a role scanner ability probably out there somewhere. I know I'm not Sja-Anat, and similarly, I claimed to Fifth on D1. That leaves Lumgol, Dr Dapper, and Levitaph. Lumgol and Dr Dapper have both felt to me that they have nothing to lose with their posts. Lumgol has also been under constant suspicion, and is now being voted on by my top suspects. Dr Dapper's posts just seem way too carefree and flippant, and they also apparently have claimed to Rath this Cycle? Rath, an update on that would be nice. Anyways, that leaves Levitaph. A new player who has, in my opinion, seemed fairly competent but hasn't been under much attention at all. They didn't want to claim to Fifth, which isn't condemning evidence by itself, but at this point, with almost everyone else having some transparency with their abilities, definitely draws my attention. I can't say Levitaph has done anything blatantly suspicious, but by process of elimination, he's my best guess.

One more thing to add that is that I think Fura and Devotary have largely ignored Levitaph, and similarly Levitaph hasn't really had any interactions with them either. Something I noticed going back through levitaph's posts is that they mentioned suspicion of Devotary at one point but haven't brought it up again since then.

Vote tally:

Lumgol(3): Ark, Fura, Levitaph
Fura(1): Sart
Levitaph(1): Lopen

[Steeldancer he/him]

There are now just over 12 hours remaining in the turn. Get your actions in, and your votes in early so I have an easier time of rollover. 

[Rathmaskal he/him]

Dr. Dapper has not claimed to me, despite supporting it in thread.  Also, I'll tell everyone what I told Fura in PM.  I did not bond anyone and am now bonded myself, so any more bonding has to come via some good RNG.

[old man moomba he/him]

I forgot. 

Whoops. Gimme a bit.

[Lumgol she/her]

So, I can't really identify much more reasoning behind this than gut feeling, but I just feel like Lopen is a convert. Even if he isn't, he's one of the most active players here, he's mostly being read as village, and he's doing a lot of discussion and that sets him up to be a likely convert for the future, since Sja-anat is obviously still alive and it's been said that they can suicide to convert another player. The suspects for conversion are quickly narrowed down, as people have previously pointed out, and unless an inactive player like Xino or Shqueeves was converted, that leaves only around 2-4 possible suspects. I think that we should go after all of them eventually but Lopen just seems like the obvious choice for an elim to convert.

[Sart he/him]

Well, it's better to get a lynch off on someone I suspect, rather than someone I trust. Furamirionind will have to wait. I'll strategically vote on Lopen, to at least tie the vote up and give Lumgol a chance to survive. I'm unconvinced of the case against Levitaph. He just reads as a new player who is tunneling hard core on Lumgol. Seriously, he voted on Lumgol every cycle.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

So, we have this vote count currently?

• Lumgol (3) - Furamirionind, Ark, Levitaph
• Furamirionind (0) - Sart
• Levitaph (1) - Lopen
• Lopen (2/3) - Lumgol, Sart +1?

I can see the argument for both here.  Lopen rang so strikingly village early in the game that I feel it would have been tough to not convert as Sja-Anat...and has been slightly less helpful since.  Lumgol has been under suspicion all game, but has definitely rang a bit less wolfy recently. So, basically we have two people who have kind of gone opposite directions with regards to their actions.

When I noted that I thought that lynching Lumgol would result in the most possible information for the village, I wasn't quite considering the potential for LYLO.  We're at an interesting point in the game.  Depending on how...generous...Steel was to the elim team, we could be in LYLO at this point, although I doubt that's quite the case.  (We may have room for one more mislynch...which still doesn't bode well for us).  I'm at least mildly surprised that I'm thinking this, but I'm going to have to vote Lopen, more based on how I would have played as Sja-Anat than any other reason.

[old man moomba he/him]

I love being carefree.

I don't see the case against Lopen, but whatever.

I'll be voting Xino 

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

Well dang, I guess I'll move my vote to Lumgol then. I'd really prefer if you guys would decide where to put your votes earlier in the Cycle, since I really don't have time to make a substantial post, so Lumgol(red) Levitaph(green). I'm on mobile so could you GMs maybe just accept that I can't remember the coding and just imagine the names are colored in?  @Steeldancer

Edited April 29, 2019 by TheMightyLopen

[Furamirionind]

['color=green]Levitaph['/color] ['color=red]Lumgol['/color]

without the " ' " parts.

[TheMightyLopen he/him]

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

['color=green]Levitaph['/color] ['color=red]Lumgol['/color]

without the " ' " parts.

Levitaph Lumgol

Edited April 29, 2019 by TheMightyLopen
Thanks my dude

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Vote tally:

Lumgol(4): Ark, Fura, Levitaph, Lopen
Lopen(3/4): Lumgol, Sart/Sart, Rath
Xino(1): Dapper

Well this is not as many votes as we may have wanted.(Though we now have two new votes and two switched votes since I started this post, so maybe it is enough votes) I do see @Snipexe hanging around, so maybe we'll get an extra vote or two in. We've got Lopen and Sart both saying that they trust Lumgol enough not to lynch her, and now they're voting on different people. Having three votes in a row on Lopen is slightly worrying, as while he certainly could be a convert, the main things that point in that direction are his about-face on Ark and increased trust of Lumgol as compared to earlier cycles. On the other hand, it is true that condensing the vote onto a couple of suspects is an advantage when we're potentially at artificial LyLo, so Sart and Rath's votes make sense while Dapper's doesn't. Rath and Lumgol are also presumably not converts, while the same cannot be said for the voters for Lumgol.

Sadly for Lopen, the very text in Sart's signature that would have reminded him of the proper BBC code is invisible on mobile. Luckily, Fura was around to 'help'. My vote now comes down to whether it's more likely that Lumgol started out as Sja-Anat or if Lopen was converted at some point along the way. Of those two, I'm going to have to say that the latter is more likely. Lopen.

[Steeldancer he/him]

The turn ends in half an hour. I may or may not post a close post. Either way it’ll be over then. 

[Levitaph]

Lumgol

Lopen

[Furamirionind]

Lumgol

TheMightyLopen

[Steeldancer he/him]

The turn is over. I’ll get the new turn up as soon as I can.

[Steeldancer he/him]

Night 4- Sudden Death
"You know, that Hjalar fellow. We've almost lynched them every single day so far. How about we actually just, you know, lynch them today?"
"Yes, sure! Let's lynch them!" 
Hjalar did not like this turn of events. She did not like the idea of being stuck in a dank dungeon with a bunch of moaning or insane spren. "I object. I very much dislike this idea, and would rather that that funny looking spren over there get lynched."
All eyes turned to Lymelis who was sporting quite the impressive mustache. Thing was, spren couldn't grow mustaches. Lymelis was, unfortunately, completely unable to explain why he was wearing a mustache. He tried to explain it away as fashion, but honestly, come on. There was nothing more stereotypical than the villain having a long mustache that they could curl and twist as they plotted to destroy Shadesmar. 
They all jumped on him, and ripped off his mustache. To their shock he was...
exactly the same, but without a mustache. 
"Look, my brand new Radiant insisted that I try the mustache on," he finally admitted. But the mustache was offensive to the spren of celebrant, and they locked him up without listening to another of his silly excuses. 
However, they quickly realized that they had made a mistake, and looked around for someone to blame it on. One particularly crazy spren screamed "IT'S ALL SARTRAS'S FAULT! DIE YOU HUMANISTIC SCUM!" And proceeded to burn Sartras beyond recognition. 
And so the day ended, with Snip holding a mustache, wondering what the heck had just happened during that day. 
______
TheMightyLopen (Lymelis) has been lynched! He was a Stoneward Stonespren! 
Sart (Sartras) has been killed! He was an Inkspren! 
Lumgol has recovered from burns. Ark has also recovered from burns. 
TheMightyLopen (Lymelis) (7): Devotary (Meladian the Lightspren), Furamirionind (Fyrul), Levitaph (Lyvit), Lumgol (Hjalar, a lightspren), Rathmaskal (DrizzleFather), Sart (Sartras),
Lumgol (Hjalar, a lightspren) (2): Ark1002 (Nightshade), TheMightyLopen (Lymelis)
Xinoehp512 (Finanik) (1): Dr. Dapper (Ji the crazyspren)
PMs are still open! Make sure to include Mailliw and I in ALL PMS. 

Spoiler

1. Furamirionind
2. Lumgol (Hjalar the Lightspren)
3. Elandera Lightweaver Cryptic
4. Randuir (Alabaster the Inkspren) Cultivationspren
5. Xinoehp
6. Rathmaskal
7. Snipexe
8. Ark1002 (Nightshade)
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Meladian the Lightspren)
10. Levitaph 
11. A Joe in the Bush
12. Fifth Scholar (Rysca) Windrunner Honorspren
13. Coop772 Lightspren
14. TheMightyLopen (Lymelis) Stoneward Stonespren
15. Cadmium Compounder Skybreaker Highspren
16. Dr. Dapper (Ji)
17. Sart (Sartras) Inkspren

This turn will end on 4/30/19, at 8:00 EDT. Here are the rules. 

Edited April 30, 2019 by Steeldancer

[Steeldancer he/him]

In other news, @A Joe in the Bush has agreed to step in for Shqueeves. Thank you Joe.