Long Game 58: A Hidden Threat

[Burnt Spaghetti she/her]

RE solf clearing people in the chain.

Thats a hard no. I agree with stink there. Absolutely not. If anyone in the chain doesnt pass it on or edits the message at all, then its really easy to track where in the chain that happened. Everyone before hand in the chain will instantly be extremely suspicious. The only person id consider soft clearing for the chain would be the first person its sent to because theres a chance they couldve been scanned too, but theres no way of knowing whos first in the chain- the seeker could easily pretend to be a random number in the chain passing ot along and couldve started at any number. So no one in the chain can be cleared or not otherwise.

[Young Bard he/him]

Yeah, we definitely shouldn't hard-clear, or even soft-clear, anyone in the chain. I'd advise against publishing who was in the Chain, though, since the entire point of the chain was to prevent PM spying from occurring and identifying the Seeker. (Rand)

That being said, I'm inclined to think that the Inquisitor might be a newer player, who converted Rand in an attempt to get an experienced player for advice, and not realizing how likely it was that someone like Rand would be scanned. I'm leaning towards Shane or Snipexe as potential Eliminators, though I intend to go through many of the more inactive players and see if there's any strangeness in their behaviour, particularly in the first cycle.

[Lumgol she/her]

Alright, so we now know that Rand is pretty much confirmed elim... and although I might be skeptical in other cases, my gut kinda suspects Rand, especially because the third Tineye message N1 didn't really sound like Rand's writing style.

This makes me trust Doc slightly more. It's been said that the people in the chain shouldn't be revealed or cleared in any way, and I'd say I agree, but I think an elim would probably keep passing on the information or alter it or something, instead of posting it in the thread. Doc could be making a false claim to frame Rand, and there might have been someone in the chain who changed the information that they sent. However, the original seeker or someone else in the chain before Doc probably would have counterclaimed in this case.

So, the only case that would involve an elim!doc is if there was no PM chain in the first place and Doc was fabricating this information. Again, this is purely hypothetical, and I am inclined to trust Doc on this post.

[Elandera she/her]

38 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Doc could be making a false claim to frame Rand, and there might have been someone in the chain who changed the information that they sent. However, the original seeker or someone else in the chain before Doc probably would have counterclaimed in this case.

This would be a dangerous move, considering it would immediately put suspicion back on Doc if he were wrong. Plus, Rand's reaction is pretty much what confirmed it for me. A villager would not just roll with it.

1 hour ago, Young Bard said:

That being said, I'm inclined to think that the Inquisitor might be a newer player, who converted Rand in an attempt to get an experienced player for advice, and not realizing how likely it was that someone like Rand would be scanned. I'm leaning towards Shane or Snipexe as potential Eliminators, though I intend to go through many of the more inactive players and see if there's any strangeness in their behaviour, particularly in the first cycle.

I hesitate to agree with the new player theory. Rand hasn't been around a whole lot recently, so his reputation might not be as well known to someone really new. It could definitely be someone new to being an elim, though, and who's been around long enough to at least be familiar with Rand's reputation. As for him being a seeker target, I feel that was more because of the claim and less because he's Rand. Though it definitely could be both.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

Rand

Well then, I come back from a day of running around in the sun and find this...quite fun.

[+Ark1002]

16 hours ago, Randuir said:

rayofsunshine(formerly known as Ax's Boyfriend)

He has posted very little, but based on him catching my cunningly laid trap and the question regarding whether an unsnapped counted as a misting suggest that he's following along with the game. There's nowhere near enough content for me to form a sold opinion, and more importantly, it doesn't look like that's going to change anytime soon, which is worrisome.

@RayOfSunshine, who do you think is the most suspicious player right now? And who would be the least?

The trap?

Do you mean the message in the thread? I found that by accident

The second was just something I was curious about when I realized that an unsnapped had died.

Sorry about my inactivity. I've been in Mexico for a month now, and I've been having limited WiFi while here. And now I'm leaving, and will be driving with even more limited WiFi access during this time (as I'll be at Universal Studios yay)

 

And most suspicious is probably Randuir for obvious reasons.

[Lumgol she/her]

Wait, I just realized I never actually voted on Rand in my last post... there we go

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

This makes me trust Doc slightly more. It's been said that the people in the chain shouldn't be revealed or cleared in any way, and I'd say I agree, but I think an elim would probably keep passing on the information or alter it or something, instead of posting it in the thread. Doc could be making a false claim to frame Rand, and there might have been someone in the chain who changed the information that they sent. However, the original seeker or someone else in the chain before Doc probably would have counterclaimed in this case.

Any alteration to a message is doomed to failure when the contents are verifiable, as will be the case when Randuir dies. A false message results in the identities of everyone in the chain being revealed and ends up in a 1v1 standoff between at least one elim. Numbering the PM chain limits the Inquisitor's ability to stall via continuously passing the message on, as the person preceding them would ask where the message went. If pressed, the Inquisitor can't lie about their target because the person who contacted the Inquisitor can verify by PMing the supposed recipient, and the truth results in the sender asking the recipient for their number, either of which outs the Inquisitor. 

2 hours ago, Young Bard said:

That being said, I'm inclined to think that the Inquisitor might be a newer player, who converted Rand in an attempt to get an experienced player for advice, and not realizing how likely it was that someone like Rand would be scanned. I'm leaning towards Shane or Snipexe as potential Eliminators, though I intend to go through many of the more inactive players and see if there's any strangeness in their behaviour, particularly in the first cycle.

Experience is likely not the only reason Randuir was converted, though it might well have been a factor. It's possible Randuir was converted partially as a result of him being one of the most active players C1, but that doesn't fit with the fact that Randuir announced his activity was going to decline sharply unless the Inquisitor missed the last eight hours of N1. The fact that there are few players in this game that Randuir has been on an elim team with may have contributed.

[Straw he/him]

The turn is over!

[Straw he/him]

Opal Ghetti had been having quite a nice day, but she hadn't gotten any shinies. However, as Eliza Deveill turned to talk with someone, Opal noticed something shiny sticking out of her back! Now that Opal thought about it, Eliza had been acting quite oddly for the past few days, and had suddenly claimed to be a Mistborn. Just as Opal finished thinking, Galen Aurette burst through the door, claiming to be bearing an important message. The message claimed that Eliza was spiked, and working with the Inquisitor! A giant mob soon formed, and slew Eliza Deveill. However, Opal managed to get a nice shiny spike from Eliza's body.

---

Randuir has died! He was a Vanilla!

Vote Count:

Randuir (14): Haelbarde, Burnt Spaghetti, Snipexe, Araris Valerian, Lumgol, Ax's Boyfriend, Doc12, Elandera, Fifth Scholar, Devotary of Spontaneity, Rathmaskal, Young Bard, Sart, STINK

GM Notes:

PMs are open.

Wow! That's a lot of votes. Let me know if I missed any. 

The Night will end on August 5th, at 4:00 PM EST.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Haelbarde (Spar)

2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)

3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored)

4. StrikerEZ (Variel) Unsnapped

5. Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod)

6. Lumgol (Teraval)

7. Ax's Boyfriend (Voidapple)

8. shanerockes (Bill)

9. Doc12 (Galen Aurette)

10. Randuir (Eliza Deveill) Vanilla

11. Amanuensis (MaiKaal) Soother

12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA) Elandera (TBA)

13. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)

14. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)

15. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)

16. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)

17. Sart (TBA)

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

 

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

That’s near-unanimity, I’m pretty sure. If @shanerockes could have gotten online and provided his thoughts, it would have been even more lopsided. 

As things stand, I propose we vote for Coinshot targets in purple again tonight, and for Seeker targets in orange. While I’d still like to see greater activity from Shane and Ark, I think my preferences have shifted towards killing Doc and seeking Young Bard. They both possess ties to Rand, but I suspect Doc a little bit more right now, and feel as though killing him will be quicker and potentially more effective than Seeking. However, as I’m statistically probably wrong about the two of them, I’d be curious to hear who else people are currently suspecting. The Rand lynch kinda did shut down discussion tremendously, so we need to start it back up again. 

[shanerockes]

31 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

That’s near-unanimity, I’m pretty sure. If @shanerockes could have gotten online and provided his thoughts, it would have been even more lopsided.

I didnt really have time to really read through all of it because I was setting up my little sisters birthday the past couple days and yesterday was her party. Will try and read through a little later and will try and say what I thought sometime later

[+Ark1002]

4 hours ago, Straw said:

 

12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA) Elandera (TBA)

Umm

One: why are these two together.

Two: what role was Brightness.

[Snipexe he/him]

6 minutes ago, RayOfSunshine said:

Umm

One: why are these two together.

Two: what role was Brightness.

Brightness was replaced with Elandera as a pinch hitter.

[Elandera she/her]

Time for the analysis I've been promising. Spoilered for length. A lot of these are musing as I'm reviewing posts.

D1

Vote Count/Order

Spoiler

Stink (Araris)
Aman (Fifth)
Lumgol (Bard)
Shanerockes (Aman)
Aman (shanerockes)
Aman (shanerockes)
Shanerockes, Brightness (Aman)
Brightness, Aman (Aman)
Fifth (Doc12)
Aman (Striker)
Sart (Hael)
Ray (Rand)
Fifth (Sart)
Sart (Hael)
Lumgol (Hael)
Aman (Lumgol)
Aman, Fifth (Aman)
Stink, Aman (Araris)
Aman (BR?)
Aman (Stink)
Aman, Fifth (Fifth)
Fifth (Aman)
Aman, Lumgol (Araris)
Aman (Striker)
Aman (Aman)
Aman (Devotary)
Aman (Devotary)

Aman’s lynch: Possible suspects among those willing to join quickly, since it would give them a conversion right away. That would include shanerockes, Lum, myself, Stink. Other points brought up would be someone in the fringe, such as Devotary.

Spoiler

Young Bard:

• Says they’d be fine lynching an inactive, but doesn’t want it to kill discussion

 

Fifth Scholar:

• First to put a vote on Aman after claiming to be a Misting. Not likely inquisitor, as that might draw a lot of attention in the end

• Later said he was against killing a Misting to attempt to force an Inquisitor conversion, but never removed his vote

• Later removed his vote from Aman, voting on himself, after Aman pointed out the above contradiction. 

 

Pre-Conversion Randuir:

• Cast a bit of shade at Devotary. Possible inquisitor!Devotary saw it and chose to convert, rather than have him suspicious of her?

• Bad gut feeling on Fifth. Same possible reasoning as inquisitor!Devotary

 

Lumgol:

• Casts suspicion on Fifth for starting discussion right away on Inquisitor abilities. Still highly suspect, like he was right and she was trying to discourage it

• Votes on Aman, putting him in the lead, while also saying Inquisitor would possibly want a Soother for vote manip later. Possible Inquisitor trying to make sure there’s a Misting death for conversion.

 

Aman: 

• Gut reads Hael, Doc, Stink as possible inquisitors, followed by Burnt or Brightness. Which of these voted on him?

 

Shanerockes:

• Voted on Aman, then removed it as soon as he was called out. Generally suspicious, but common for new elims. Especially if new elim is alone.

 

Devotary and Fifth:

• Both take strong stances to get rid of eliminators early. According to Aman, “I'm somewhat suspicious of Fifth right now, however, since if he were the Inquisitor, I would expect him to take this exact same stance so he seems the most punishing toward himself, not to mention the end result of delaying conversions working out for the Inquisitor more than it would the village”

 

Rath:

• Cautions against reads based on roles. Possible inquisitor trying to subvert some comments about Uber metals?

N1

One vote on Fifth was soothed. Several people mentioned his vote on himself would be strange unless emotional allomancy was a free action, so not likely Inquisitor. Did Aman soothe?

D2
Vote Count/Order

Spoiler

Bard (Stink)
Bard (Araris)
Bard (Stink)
Shanerockes (Rand)
Bard,Devotary (Araris)
Araris (Sart)
Bard (Rath)
Hael (Bard)
Rand (Fifth)
Devotary, Bard (Araris)
Rand (Doc)
Araris (Striker)
Bard, Rand (Rath)
Fifth (Snip)
Striker (Rand)
Bard (Devotary)
Rand, Striker (Fifth)
Rand, Striker (Doc)
Bard, Striker (Devotary)

 

Spoiler

Converted Randuir:

• Defends Bard and his vote on Lumgol as NAI. Also states Fifth was a bit sus in underselling potential elim power, but also dismissed it with the sacrificial play not likely being an Inquisitor move

• Casts a bit of shade on Devotary for being distant from the Aman lynch discussion. Distancing?

• Reads Fifth as village, and Lum as suspicious based on D1 vote

 

Devotary:

• I can’t really pin it down, but there’s something about this post that gives me a bad gut read. Part of it is what Araris pointed out, the sentiment she wasn’t willing to risk a lynch where only Lum or Fifth died (possible Inquisitor pushing to make sure a Misting died?), and part was the vague stance on voting based on their main suspicion: overly self-protective actions. 

• Attempted protection of Rand against lynch. However, if Devotary were elim, it would be dangerous to go to his defense when they knew a Seeker could throw it off entirely

 

Lumgol:

• I highly disagree with a lot of what she says about voting. She states late-cycle, thought-out votes tend to give more information, but I’ve found mostly the quick votes tend to give the most away. They leave the most breadcrumbs, because they’re more often full of bad reasoning or panic from an elim (speaking from experience here). I also feel it would be in an Inquisitor’s best interest to say it’s better to wait and think out a vote, so it’s not suspicious when she votes late (which is unlike what we usually see from Lum, regardless of alignment)

 

Fifth:

• Definitely village read from this post, knowing Rand was converted. Their interactions in this section could have been concocted, but that’s not likely. (Though I think it was the Princess Bride game where Rand (?) was involved in an in-game debate with their teammate that ended up gaining them some trust for a few more turns

 

Snipexe:

• Makes a comment that later conversions might be less active players. Possibly Inquisitor setting up a diversion for later?

 

N2

Spoiler

Lumgol:

• Inquisitor!Lum attempting to distance, knowing Seeking is a very good possibility?

 

In the end, here's my suspicion list of the players remaining in the game.

Top suspicions:
Lumgol
Devotary

Mild elim reads:
Snipexe
Fifth Scholar

Neutral:
Burnt Spaghetti
RayofSunshine
shanerockes
Rathmaskal
Young Bard
Sart
STINK

Slight village:
Doc12
Haelbarde
Araris Valerian

 

EDIT: If I were the coinshot, I'd probably go after Lumgol tonight. And for Seeker target, I'd say Fifth, just to ease my paranoia.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Elandera
Sorry, formatting got funny. I'm too lazy to fix it. Aaand I fixed it anyway out of OCD.

[Young Bard he/him]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

 

In the end, here's my suspicion list of the players remaining in the game.

Top suspicions:
Lumgol
Devotary

Mild elim reads:
Snipexe
Fifth Scholar

Neutral:
Burnt Spaghetti
RayofSunshine
shanerockes
Rathmaskal
Young Bard
Sart
STINK

Slight village:
Doc12
Haelbarde
Araris Valerian

 

EDIT: If I were the coinshot, I'd probably go after Lumgol tonight. And for Seeker target, I'd say Fifth, just to ease my paranoia.

I find that amusing, because it's almost exactly the opposite of my own reads. Since the Inquisitor is a team of one right now, though, then you can't be protecting for anyone, so it's just interesting. The one person I agree with you on, though, is Snipexe. And I'd say Doc should be scanned.

[Snipexe he/him]

3 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Snipexe

Cool, I guess that makes sense, with my activity or lack thereof and all.

[Doc12 he/him]

Question, do we even have a Coinshot? There has been a distinct lack of dying past few nights besides the attack on fifth. 

Eh, well. honestly, I've sort of resigned myself to being suspected  I've tried to be useful and have tried to think about how I voted, but in the end, if only my death will satisfy you, I'm gonna give the coinshot a tired look and say "Yeah, well, make it quick." I'm only putting up an argument because while me dying isn't the worst, I feel that I have a responsibility to at least try to be a useful and active player, so I won't actively argue for my own death. 

I don't really understand Fifth saying that I have ties to Rand, when I 1) voted on him day 2 because I felt he was playing strangely, 2) was the second vote before it became a bandwagon, and  3) only retracted my vote because Rand claimed mistborn, which Fifth did as well. I suppose another reason Fifth suspects me is because I've defended Bard, who he also suspects. I don't know what to say to that if it's true, I have defended Bard a couple of times - once in day 2 when he accumulated about two or three votes rapidly and seemingly arbitrarily and when I really didn't want to shift the vote to him to save Rand. I believe I've explained my reasons for that adequately. Possibly a last reason that I might be suspected is me believing that the PM chain could be soft-cleared, to which I acknowledge that is a rookie mistake, and I am an idiot  (Seriously, I'm not half as good as this game as some of you think I am)

I'm working on reading backlog and trying to compile a list of trusts and distrusts, but I probably won't get it done today so I'll try to post that on the next day. At the moment, I'm fine with Doc being scanned, and if we do have a coinshot, I'm going to vote that Ray be shot for reasons expressed in previous posts.

[Rathmaskal he/him]

2 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Question, do we even have a Coinshot? There has been a distinct lack of dying past few nights besides the attack on fifth.

Coinshots only get one kill throughout the game, not one a night, so that could be why.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

12 hours ago, Elandera said:

• First to put a vote on Aman after claiming to be a Misting. Not likely inquisitor, as that might draw a lot of attention in the end

• Later said he was against killing a Misting to attempt to force an Inquisitor conversion, but never removed his vote

• Later removed his vote from Aman, voting on himself, after Aman pointed out the above contradiction. 

To clarify my actual position on that lynch, as I feel your explanation distorts it slightly, I was against lynching a Misting for the sake of giving the Inquisitor a conversion, which is what Aman was advocating, wishing instead to hold a normal D1 lynch, voting on those we believed suspicious, which at the time was Aman because I had a fundamental disagreement with his stance, and suspected the Inquisitor had Spike(s) that allowed him to mimic Soothing. 

12 hours ago, Elandera said:

Definitely village read from this post, knowing Rand was converted. Their interactions in this section could have been concocted, but that’s not likely. (Though I think it was the Princess Bride game where Rand (?) was involved in an in-game debate with their teammate that ended up gaining them some trust for a few more turns

It gained them trust for the rest of the game.  

12 hours ago, Elandera said:

Mild elim reads:
Snipexe
Fifth Scholar

I’m a little confused how you go in your analysis from the above two statements, in which you mark me as village/not a likely Inquisitor, and then list me under your mild Elim reads.  I would not mind being Seeked if people have genuine concerns about me, but would personally prefer to see my own suspects targeted  

Sorry for the response to old stuff  Just figured we should bring discussion levels up. 

@Doc12 While I don’t have the time to respond fully to your post, I’d like to quickly address two things: 1) You’re not suspect for defending Bard, as both of you can’t be evil right now, and 2) I’m not sure why you’re advocating that you be Seeked when your claimed role cannot be told apart from the Inquisitor UberCopper Spike. (Sorry to sort-of out you if you’re not evil, but you’d admitted that you told Rand your role, so the village might as well know now as well) 

[Elandera she/her]

16 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

To clarify my actual position on that lynch, as I feel your explanation distorts it slightly, I was against lynching a Misting for the sake of giving the Inquisitor a conversion, which is what Aman was advocating, wishing instead to hold a normal D1 lynch, voting on those we believed suspicious, which at the time was Aman because I had a fundamental disagreement with his stance, and suspected the Inquisitor had Spike(s) that allowed him to mimic Soothing.

That makes more sense. I was misunderstanding your intention.

17 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m a little confused how you go in your analysis from the above two statements, in which you mark me as village/not a likely Inquisitor, and then list me under your mild Elim reads.  I would not mind being Seeked if people have genuine concerns about me, but would personally prefer to see my own suspects targeted

A lot of it, honestly, is paranoia.  You're one of those players I just can't ever seem to shake a gut read on. Which is why, I suppose, you're an honorary elim. The other part, more seriously, was I had a major elim reading on you near the beginning of D1 for the voting, which diminished over time with more interactions. And now that I have a better explanation for the votes (though still not one for a vote on you being soothed), I put you back at a solid neutral. Which also means, Seeker, don't worry about Fifth for now. There are more suspicious people deserving of a scan at this point.

19 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Sorry for the response to old stuff  Just figured we should bring discussion levels up. 

It wasn't super old stuff, just posted last night. And I'm glad. If anyone else has questions about how I reached my read conclusion, please ask away. Discussion is good, and needs to keep going.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

47 minutes ago, Elandera said:

A lot of it, honestly, is paranoia.  You're one of those players I just can't ever seem to shake a gut read on. Which is why, I suppose, you're an honorary elim. The other part, more seriously, was I had a major elim reading on you near the beginning of D1 for the voting, which diminished over time with more interactions. And now that I have a better explanation for the votes (though still not one for a vote on you being soothed), I put you back at a solid neutral.

Fair enough, then.  In regards to my vote being Soothed, I’m 99.9% sure that was Aman working towards saving me after he retracted his vote; if you believe it to be my doing as Inquisitor!Fifth, you’d have to assume that I have Spikes for both extra actions and Soothing, on top of the existing UberTin, UberPewter and almost 100% likely UberCopper. That’s five spikes, which is entirely unreasonable for the current player size. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I just did a read over Randuir's analysis post. Quick summary below:

Spoiler

 

Evil
Hael
Araris
Lumgol
Devotary

Neutral
Burnt
Snipexe
Ray
Shane
Doc
Rath
Sart
STINK

Good
Bard

None
Fifth
BR
Elandera

 

I'd wager that the Inquisitor is in the Neutral category. I'd guess one of Burnt, Snipexe, Doc, or Rath, based on that analysis alone.

Edit: Rath is the only one of these 4 that was in my other list, so I'd prefer a Coinshot/Seeker target him.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Araris Valerian

[Straw he/him]

Sorry about the late rollover, I had to do some stuff IRL.

[Straw he/him]

After getting a spike, Opal had been feeling quite lucky. However, as she was walking back home and inspecting her new shiny thing, a dark figure jumped out from an alley and attacked her! Fortunately, Opal was able to fend off the attacker with her spike, and proceeded to run back and tell everyone about her close encounter.

---

Burnt Spaghetti was attacked, but survived!

GM Notes:

PMs are open.

The Day will end on August 7th, at 4:00 PM EST.

Due to the low number of deaths, I'm implementing an activity filter. Every player must now make a post every two cycles.

Tineye Message #1:

Two little Spiked buddies plotting in the night;
One got themselves spotted, and then there was one.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Haelbarde (Spar)

2. Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti)

3. Snipexe (Cutting Bored)

4. StrikerEZ (Variel) Unsnapped

5. Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod)

6. Lumgol (Teraval)

7. Ax's Boyfriend (Voidapple)

8. shanerockes (Bill)

9. Doc12 (Galen Aurette)

10. Randuir (Eliza Deveill) Vanilla

11. Amanuensis (MaiKaal) Soother

12. BrightnessRadiant (TBA) Elandera (TBA)

13. Fifth Scholar (Lerdar)

14. Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene)

15. Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal)

16. Young Bard (Beattie Buvidas)

17. Sart (TBA)

18. STINK (Fonar Redacted)

 

Edited August 5, 2019 by Straw