Long Game 64: Choose Your Own Sanderson Adventure!

[StrikerEZ he/him]

37 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I think it was more of a statement in regards to the enjoyment of the game as a whole. Getting rid of an entire faction D1 is a bit bittersweet. Great that we caught a threat and are one step closer to our win-con, but a bit disappointing that an entire part of the game, especially one which causes so much intrigue as a conversion, is gone so early.

Yeah, this is what I meant by that. I think it’s great to find an elim super early because it helps us win, but it is a bittersweet because that means that that player didn’t even get to spend much time scheming.

Also, I think I’m gonna just vote on TGK in order to secure a lynch. Voting on anyone else doesn’t make sense at this point. 

[Kynedath]

51 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Yeah, this is what I meant by that. I think it’s great to find an elim super early because it helps us win, but it is a bittersweet because that means that that player didn’t even get to spend much time scheming.

Also, I think I’m gonna just vote on TGK in order to secure a lynch. Voting on anyone else doesn’t make sense at this point. 

Hmm, this strikes me as suspicious. You haven't really been adding too much to the conversation this cycle. Last cycle you had plenty of thoughts and questions and points to add, but this cycle you adressed your thoughts on TGK in your first post, and this post you defend yourself and just jump on a bandwagon. Yeah, it's a huge bandwagon and almost surely going to go through, but it almost seems like you're hiding behind it so that you can vote and make a small impression this cycle without drawing attention to yourself.

[Shqueeves he/him]

I am not a fan of the voting on TGK, though I do understand where it's coming from.

I am willing to bet that the Smedry has a kill ability. Unless I'm reading it wrong, the Knights can't kill, only convert. A Trouble Magnet didn't die, and that was the only known role that could kill. Assuming that Elkanah was the only Knight (an unfounded assumption) we need to prioritize finding the Smedry as soon as possible. I'm going to be completely honest, I have no idea where to even begin with identifying them. I'd do an analysis, but I'm a little short on time today, so I probably won't be on again until tomorrow sometime. Sorry for silence

[StrikerEZ he/him]

10 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

Hmm, this strikes me as suspicious. You haven't really been adding too much to the conversation this cycle. Last cycle you had plenty of thoughts and questions and points to add, but this cycle you adressed your thoughts on TGK in your first post, and this post you defend yourself and just jump on a bandwagon. Yeah, it's a huge bandwagon and almost surely going to go through, but it almost seems like you're hiding behind it so that you can vote and make a small impression this cycle without drawing attention to yourself.

I haven’t been adding much because I can’t think of anything to add. If one of my PM contacts would be okay with revealing our PM, they could confirm that I’d mentioned voting on TGK either yesterday morning or this morning. I didn’t do it when I said I would because I saw his posts and started feeling bad for him, but I decided to just stick with my guns. I don’t see any other good options for a lynch and I don’t have the mental energy to try and find one. Plus I don’t think there’s gonna be much use in trying to redirect this bandwagon.

[The_God_King]

final thoughts:

people I trust - no one

People I’m suspicious of - straw, Coda, striker, Elandera 

people I’m neutral on - joe, experience

 

if i didn’t mention someone (which is a majority) it’s because I don’t have an educated opinion 

[little wilson she/her]

The turn has ended!

[Elbereth she/her]

LG64: Night 2 - An International Incident

---

The God King was a Librarian Curator! 

Vote Count
God King (6): God King, Joe, Kynedath, Straw, Striker, Xino
Experience (1): Sart
Striker (1): Experience

Night 2 has begun and will end in 24 hours. Get your actions in! 

Player List

1. Experience - Shard
2. Straw - Straw
3. Kidpen - Arthur Smedry
4. A Joe in the Bush - Porona Candemic
5. Coda - ?
6. Striker - ?
7. Kynedath - Bartholomew Prescot
8. Elandera - Rainier
9. Zillah - ?
10. xinoehp512 - ?
11. Ironfire - Liability
12. Sart - ?
13. Elkanah - Karen Crystal Knight Silimatic Engineer
14. Fifth Scholar - Sergey Karjakin, Russian ambassador and secret adviser to the Secretary of Defense Librarian Transporter
15. The God King - Frank Librarian Curator
16. Shqueeves - ?

Edited April 5, 2020 by Elbereth

[Straw he/him]

@Elbereth I believe the press release that is currently in the writeup is an exact copy of the one from D2. Is it a mistake?

Edited April 5, 2020 by Straw

[Elbereth she/her]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

@Elbereth I believe the press release that is currently in the writeup is an exact copy of the one from D2. Is it a mistake?

Yup.  Fixed. 

[Experience he/him]

Not much to say except I told you so! I have a feeling that Elkanah is Calvin, but who knows.

[Straw he/him]

Given that the news report is dated before the actual press release, we either have a spy in the White House or some precognitive reporters.

I propose that we investigate each of these possibilities, as they both seem rather important.

[Ironfire he/him]

Doesn't the press release say that "they may have found the person responsible", indicating that people had already known that the ambassador was dead? It doesn't see like there's anything precognitive about that...?

[Straw he/him]

52 minutes ago, Ironfire said:

Doesn't the press release say that "they may have found the person responsible", indicating that people had already known that the ambassador was dead? It doesn't see like there's anything precognitive about that...?

The news report is dated 11:32 AM. The press release from D2 that announced the ambassador's death was at 12:00PM.

[Shqueeves he/him]

That is a worrisome death pattern, especially for myself and Sart

[little wilson she/her]

Turn is closed!

[little wilson she/her]

LG64: Day 3 - A Coolidge Interruption

Sorry this took so long. There was a miscommunication between the GMs. I'm posting this now and El will add the writeup in in a bit.

Joe was killed. He was a Librarian Jail-Breaker!

The turn will end in ~46 hours.

Player List
Experience - Shard
Straw - Straw
Kidpen - Arthur Smedry
A Joe in the Bush - Porona Candemic
Coda - ?
Striker - ?
Kynedath - Bartholomew Prescot
Elandera - Rainier
Zillah - ?
xinoehp512 - ?
Ironfire - Liability
Sart - ?
Elkanah - Karen
Fifth Scholar - Sergey Karjakin, Russian ambassador and secret adviser to the Secretary of Defense
The God King - ?
Shqueeves - ?

[Sart he/him]

Quote

That is a worrisome death pattern, especially for myself and Sart

Shqueeves, what the heck is this post? It sounds like you knew Joe would be the next murder victim, which is only possible if you are the Smedry. @Shqueeves would you mind responding to this?

[Straw he/him]

7 minutes ago, Sart said:

Shqueeves, what the heck is this post? It sounds like you knew Joe would be the next murder victim, which is only possible if you are the Smedry. @Shqueeves would you mind responding to this?

I think he was talking about the fact that the previous kills/lynches are all clustered on the player list.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Straw

[Shqueeves he/him]

11 hours ago, Sart said:

Shqueeves, what the heck is this post? It sounds like you knew Joe would be the next murder victim, which is only possible if you are the Smedry. @Shqueeves would you mind responding to this?

Straw is right, just a lighthearted comment about how all previous deaths were in between us. What about my statement implied Joe as the next death?

[Straw he/him]

So, there are currently 12 players in the game. I think there's only one Smedry, which brings us down to 11 people who are either librarians or knights. This means that the game state right now is one of the following:

If there was another knight who successfully converted a librarian:

x1 Smedry

x2 Knights

x9 Librarians

 

If there was another knight who has not yet successfully converted a librarian:

x1 Smedry

x1 Knight

x10 Librarians

 

If there was no other knight:

x1 Smedry

x11 Librarians

[Experience he/him]

I think that the bottom one is the least likely, and it is probable that there was at least 2 knights to start the game. I don't know if we can tell if someone was converted or not though. Also, I'm pretty sure that it said there was only one smedry in the rules. 

[Straw he/him]

4 minutes ago, EXPERIENCE said:

I think that the bottom one is the least likely, and it is probable that there was at least 2 knights to start the game. I don't know if we can tell if someone was converted or not though.

I think that the top one is the most likely, as I doubt that the other knight failed to convert twice.

In the case of the top scenario, the worst case scenario for the librarians would be as follows:

N3: x1S x2K x8L

D4: x1S x3K x6L

N4: x1S x3K x5L

D5: x1S x3K x4L

N5: x1S x3K x3L

D6: x1S x4K x1L

N6: x1S x4K

11 minutes ago, EXPERIENCE said:

Also, I'm pretty sure that it said there was only one smedry in the rules. 

It phrases it that way, but I don't believe it outright says it. I'll ask one of the GMs:

@Elbereth can there be multiple people who are a Rogue Smedry?

[Elandera she/her]

5 hours ago, EXPERIENCE said:

I don't know if we can tell if someone was converted or not though.

We are not informed. El confirmed that D1, I believe. 

It's past time we get more than one vote on the board. @Coda (Coda). I don't anything more than a gut read at the moment, so I apologise for that. I'll try tonight to go through and see if I can find what's causing it.

[Experience he/him]

 StrikerEZ. Same reasons as day before.

[Sart he/him]

19 hours ago, Straw said:

I think he was talking about the fact that the previous kills/lynches are all clustered on the player list.

...That would make more sense. Shqueeves.

Moving on to other avenues of discussion, there are two points I want to make.

The first concerns @Zillah They made an odd post that needs some investigating

Quote

I’m not entirely sure what to say at this point, I do agree with the analysis of God King, however their frustration and the guilt trip mechanism is making it hard to knowingly vote on them. One thing I did have as a note is the difference in their playstyle D1 this game as well as the last game I played with them. (Elkanah’s QF) They were very quiet and careful D1, and that game they flipped Elim.

Edit: I did receive an anonymous message last night that indicates God King may have been lying about a PM with Elkanah. However unless two people could confirm that they have PM’s with God King from day one, I wouldn’t trust that message personally. 

Edit #2: This is likely all I’m going to be saying on God King, I’ll post my thoughts on the other players in a bit, I have to get some schooling stuff dealt with right now though. 

I'm curious as to the contents of this anonymous PM. What exactly about it indicated that God King was lying? Since we now know God King was telling the truth, I find it odd that anyone would like to try and implicate him further. The rules also state the Anonymous Contact could send a message to up to two players. Since that's the case, I would be curious if someone else also received the same anonymous message. Also, Zillah never followed up on this post with player analysis. Zillah until you contribute more, my vote is on you.

The second point I would like to make concerns the identity of the Smedry. Namely, I believe that they have a role other than being a Smedry. This theory comes from the ruleset. The Lone Smedry is a faction, not a role. We also know that one of the Crystal Knights had a role to start with. I seriously doubt we have any vanilla players, and so I suspect that the Smedry is also not a vanilla player, with no role other than his faction ability.

This leads me to a corollary point. I suspect that the Smedry is killing people outside of their PM group. It's harder to suspect people you have a PM with, so they may be intentionally leaving people they are chatting with alive. Plus, if they have a role outside of Smedry, that gives them targets for that role. In that vein, it might be prudent to reveal if you had a PM with a dead player. In my mind, that would lower your chance of being a Smedry.