Experience he/him Posted April 14, 2020 Report Share Posted April 14, 2020 Well, I don't know what Elandera is, but I'll vote on them for self-preservation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw he/him Posted April 14, 2020 Report Share Posted April 14, 2020 Okay, to break the tie, I'll vote on Elandera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted April 14, 2020 Report Share Posted April 14, 2020 The cycle ends in about 45 minutes, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elandera she/her Posted April 14, 2020 Report Share Posted April 14, 2020 This is certainly a strange and sudden turn of events. Does it feel weird to anyone else that there was a sudden surge to protect Experience? Almost as if his teammates finally jumped in? 15 minutes ago, Straw said: I talked with Sart, and if someone else changes their vote to Elandera, I'll vote on her. This post in particular made me wary of her: If the Smedry dies, we're in a lot of trouble. They have just as much of an interest in destroying the Knights, and if they die we'll only be able to use the lynch, which is troublesome considering how close the Knights are to parity. I do agree we need to kill the Knights first, which is why I haven't been joining the lynches on you. As I've posted previously, I suspect you are the Smedry. That post was more a suggestion that if we're certain of the Smedry and have no leads on a Knight, we shouldn't wantonly kill villagers. It was also made under false assumptions that there may not even be a Knight left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson she/her Posted April 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2020 The day is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson she/her Posted April 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 14, 2020 LG64: Night 5 - The Press Secretary's Tweet Elandera is dead! She was a Librarian Criminal with Madness Lenses! Elandera (3): Experience, Sart, Straw Experience (2): Elandera, Kidpen Night 5 has begun and will end in about 22 hours. Get your PMs and actions in! Player List Experience - Shard Straw - Straw Kidpen - Arthur Smedry A Joe in the Bush - Porona Candemic Librarian Jail-breaker Coda - ? Librarian Oculator Striker - Striker Librarian Therapist Kynedath - Bartholomew Prescot Librarian Trouble Magnet Elandera - Rainier Librarian Criminal with Madness Lenses Zillah - ? xinoehp512 - ? Librarian Criminal and Anonymous Contact Ironfire - Liability Crystal Knight Gossiper with an Airplane Spoon Sart - ? Elkanah - Karen Crystal Knight Silimatic Engineer Fifth Scholar - Sergey Karjakin, Russian ambassador and secret adviser to the Secretary of Defense Librarian Transporter The God King - The God King Librarian Curator Shqueeves - ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Well. Crem. Player List from most to least Trusted: Sart Experience Shqueeves Zillah Kidpen Straw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson she/her Posted April 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 This turn is closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
little wilson she/her Posted April 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 LG64: Day 6 - This is Above My Pay Grade Kidpen was killed. He was a Librarian Criminal and Paper-Tosser! Day 6 has begun. It will end in about 47 hours, at 6:00 PM PDT on April 16th. Get your votes and PM orders in! Player List Experience - Shard Straw - Straw Kidpen - Arthur Smedry Librarian Criminal and Paper-Tosser A Joe in the Bush - Porona Candemic Librarian Jail-breaker Coda - ? Librarian Oculator Striker - Striker Librarian Therapist Kynedath - Bartholomew Prescot Librarian Trouble Magnet Elandera - Rainier Librarian Criminal with Madness Lenses Zillah - ? xinoehp512 - ? Librarian Criminal and Anonymous Contact Ironfire - Liability Crystal Knight Gossiper with an Airplane Spoon Sart - ? Elkanah - Karen Crystal Knight Silimatic Engineer Fifth Scholar - Sergey Karjakin, Russian ambassador and secret adviser to the Secretary of Defense Librarian Transporter The God King - The God King Librarian Curator Shqueeves - ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 41 minutes ago, little wilson said: Player List Experience - Shard Straw - Straw Kidpen - Arthur Smedry A Joe in the Bush - Porona Candemic Librarian Jail-breaker Coda - ? Librarian Oculator Striker - Striker Librarian Therapist Kynedath - Bartholomew Prescot Librarian Trouble Magnet Elandera - Rainier Librarian Criminal with Madness Lenses Zillah - ? xinoehp512 - ? Librarian Criminal and Anonymous Contact Ironfire - Liability Crystal Knight Gossiper with an Airplane Spoon Sart - ? Elkanah - Karen Crystal Knight Silimatic Engineer Fifth Scholar - Sergey Karjakin, Russian ambassador and secret adviser to the Secretary of Defense Librarian Transporter The God King - The God King Librarian Curator Shqueeves - ? Umm... Why are Coda's and Kidpen's names not crossed out? It was messing up my count. With only five players left alive, if we're in the worst case scenario, the Crystal Knights now have a majority of the players. I think that's the wrong assumption to make though, or at least it does no good for us to assume it. I'm going to hope for the best, and assume the Librarians still have a chance of winning this. To that end, Straw, I think it's likely you're the Smedry. Based on the kill pattern, you appear to be the last likely candidate. I understand if we have Crystal Knights still left alive this is a risky play, but if Ironfire went well and truly inactive, then lynching you should end the game. If it doesn't, we're still dealing with at least one Crystal Knight, and we can try to pivot from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) I do think that Straw is the Smedry, but it might not be best to Lynch them just yet. The knights could have converted someone last night successfully. If so, there would be 2 knights, 1 Smedry, and 2 librarians. If we kill the Smedry, then next day, the two knights have at least a tie lynch. Worst case scenario, librarian is lynched. Then they win. If a Knight is lynched, then they still win. So if there was a successful conversion last night, and we lynch Smedry, we lose. There is a 0% chance we win(even in the best case scenario). Now, if we kill a Knight today, then it's probably 1 Knight, 1 smedry, 2 librarians. Worst case scenario, During night, Smedry hits librarian. This makes it one of each, then if librarian is lynched, Smedry wins, or if Smedry is hit Knight wins. I can't do the calculation in my head, but it's around 9% I believe. I'm pretty sure the only way we can win is if we kill a Knight today, Smedry kills knight the next night, then we lynch Smedry. This is all assuming that there's two knights. If there's 1 Knight(which would be if they tried to convert kidpen as well, I'm pretty sure) then there's 3 librarians and 1 smedry. If we lynch Smedry, then during next night nothing happens. Then, next day worse case scenario, we lynch a librarian. That's 1 Knight and two librarians. Next night Knight converts and wins. There is a 25% chance we win this way at this lynch. Now if we lynch a Knight, then it's three librarians and a Smedry. During night a librarian dies. Then there's a 33% chance of lynching Smedry. In both cases, it's better for us to Lynch a Knight. Of course theres the chance that we hit a librarian, and there's also that small chance that Straw's not even the Smedry. This is why I'm going to place my vote on Shqueeves because I'm pretty sure they are a knight. Sorry about the long rant. Edit: Also, the chances go higher because I'm pretty sure Straw is Smedry, so if we kill the knights we can feel pretty good about being right about them. Edited April 15, 2020 by Experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Sart said: Umm... Why are Coda's and Kidpen's names not crossed out? It was messing up my count. With only five players left alive, if we're in the worst case scenario, the Crystal Knights now have a majority of the players. I think that's the wrong assumption to make though, or at least it does no good for us to assume it. I'm going to hope for the best, and assume the Librarians still have a chance of winning this. To that end, Straw, I think it's likely you're the Smedry. Based on the kill pattern, you appear to be the last likely candidate. I understand if we have Crystal Knights still left alive this is a risky play, but if Ironfire went well and truly inactive, then lynching you should end the game. If it doesn't, we're still dealing with at least one Crystal Knight, and we can try to pivot from there. I highly, highly, doubt that Ironfire didn't convert anyone. He was active N1 and N2, both turns during which he could have converted or been converted. I find it significantly more likely that the Knights missed a conversion at some point. For example, tonight the elims had a 1/2 chance of either hitting the Smedry or Kidpen. Also, if Experience redirected to a Knight, that could also cause them to miss. Personally, I'm pretty suspicious of you, Sart. There's little point to taking risks at this point, and it's ridiculous to imply that we could pivot into a win if there are one or two Knights. Your behavior feels like a Knight who has a conversion coming up on N6 and is trying to lynch a Librarian or Smedry to solidify your victory. There's also the possibility that Kidpen used their paper toss and hit a Knight, and you're waiting for the conversion to finally come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 (edited) Hey, @Straw. Do you think that @Sart is more likely a Knight then @Shqueeves and why? As of now I would need to move my vote on to you, because I feel like Sart is slight librarian lean to me. Edited April 15, 2020 by Experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Experience said: Hey, @Straw. Do you think that @Sart is more likely a Knight then @Shqueeves and why? As of now I would need to move my vote on to you, because I feel like Sart is slight librarian lean to me. Since Shqueeves is inactive, I am more inclined to lynch him than Sart. My vote was mainly a poke to get Sart to respond as to why he thinks that lynching the Smedry would be better than trying to find a Knight. I was also slightly suspicious that he might have been trying to pocket you by saving you from the lynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 @Zillah @Shqueeves We haven't see you for a while. It would be sort of nice to hear your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Straw said: Since Shqueeves is inactive, I am more inclined to lynch him than Sart. My vote was mainly a poke to get Sart to respond as to why he thinks that lynching the Smedry would be better than trying to find a Knight. I was also slightly suspicious that he might have been trying to pocket you by saving you from the lynch. Let's examine the scenarios. There are 3 Knights. They have a majority of the votes, and the only thing preventing the win is inactivity. It's a possibility, I suppose, but that would make me the only Librarian. At that point, all I'm doing is playing spoiler. There are 2 Knights. Before Ironfire died, he got off a conversion. Then, in the following cycles, another conversion was fired off. Let's break this up into sub-cases. The Knights do not have a conversion tonight. Unlikely, but perhaps they only succeeded last night. We lynch a Knight. Great! It's 2 v 1 v 1. However, the Smedry gets a kill. If they kill the last Knight, they die to the lynch. Instead, they'll kill a Librarian. We're stuck at 1 v 1 v 1, and the last Librarian gets to play spoiler, again. The Knights do have a conversion tonight. We lynch a Knight today. It's back to 2 v 1 v 1. If they miss their conversion, it's back to sub-case 1. If they manage to convert a villager, they have enough to tie the lynch. Even if the last Librarian works with the Smedry to lynch a Knight, it's 1 v 1 v 1. The Smedry kills again, bringing us to a 1 v 1. No lynch occurs due to the 2-vote minimum, and the Smedry wins. There is 1 Knight. If we lynch the Smedry, the Knight presumably gets a conversion off. It's 2 v 2. If we win the toss-up, the Knights go down to one, and then we win the next day. If we lynch the Knight, the Smedry kills one of us tonight. It's 1 v 3, and the Smedry gets lynched. This is the best case scenario, but it's also the one I find the least likely. If Ironfire truly managed to convert someone on Night 1 or Night 2, I find it extremely implausible that in the 4 remaining nights, no conversion took place. There are no Knights. We lynch the Smedry, and we win. If there are two or more Knights, the Librarians cannot win the game, barring Transporter shenanigans. If there is one Knight, we can still win, even if we lynch a Smedry today. If there are no Knights, it's pointless to lynch anyone besides the Smedry. Plus, we do not know 100% if Straw is in fact the Smedry. All signs point to yes, but he could still technically be a Knight, or even a Librarian. If he's just bluffing Smedry, the real Smedry couldn't reveal themselves, otherwise they would be on the chopping block. Perhaps this analysis is too cynical, and there is an outcome where lynching a Knight candidate is a better option. However, I think that time has passed. Yes, lynching Straw is a gamble, but it's one I'm willing to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 @Sart I think your forgetting that the knights only convert on odd numbered nights(I'm pretty sure). So they can't convert the next night, they would have to wait for two nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw he/him Posted April 15, 2020 Report Share Posted April 15, 2020 Here's my analysis. Three Knights. I don't think any of the remaining players are inactive enough that they'd be unable to lynch, so if this is the case then we're probably in trouble. However, in this scenario the best option for the Librarians is to try and lynch a Knight. Without the Smedry's kill there's no way to even have a chance of winning unless there are multiple inactive Knights. The best option for the Knights in this scenario would be to lynch the Smedry. Two Knights. If the Librarians lynch the Smedry, the Knights will win unless they're inactive. If a Knight is lynched, the Smedry will win unless they accidentally hit the other Knight. Personally, betting on the Smedry missing is better than betting on the Knights being inactive and not converting. Lynching the Knight would bring it to 1 v 3, and the Librarians could lynch the Smedry in a 1 v 2 the next day. Lynching the Smedry would make it 2 v 2 on D7. Since 50% is an imprisonment, the Librarians would only have a 25% chance of winning the game. If there are no Knights, the Librarians would still want to try and find a Knight to kill, just in case. Even if a Librarian died to the lynch, and another died to the Smedry's kill, there would still be enough Librarians to lynch the Smedry and win. Personally, I don't see any situation where it would be preferable to try and lynch a Smedry over hunting for Knights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 @Straw @Sart I would change votes in next two hours unless you want a chance of dying. Also, @Shqueeves @Zillah you have gone silent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart he/him Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Experience said: @Straw @Sart I would change votes in next two hours unless you want a chance of dying. Also, @Shqueeves @Zillah you have gone silent. We need a lynch. Shqueeves instead of Straw. Here's my worry. What if Zillah stays inactive? Straw kills me, which I can't stop. No lynch occurs tomorrow, and Straw gets a 50/50 shot at killing you. Hope you can beat those odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 Yes. It will help that I'm a transporter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straw he/him Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 I'll switch my vote from Sart to Shqueeves. Hopefully they're a Knight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sart he/him Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Experience said: Yes. It will help that I'm a transporter though. That's why I said it's a 50/50. It all comes down to mind games There's 4 outcomes: You don't transport yourself, and Straw kills you. You transport yourself with Straw, and Straw still tries to kill you. Straw dies instead. You transport yourself, and Straw, being clever, targets himself. You still die. You fake transporting yourself, and Straw targets himself. Straw kills himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Experience he/him Posted April 16, 2020 Report Share Posted April 16, 2020 (edited) Or straw just kills zillah and it's a 50/50 lynch. Edited April 16, 2020 by Experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zillah she/her Posted April 17, 2020 Report Share Posted April 17, 2020 I’m still here, unfortunately i won’t be able to put much out at this point, yesterday was a real rough day mentally. After reading through the thread I’m going to vote for Shqueeves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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