Long Game 70: Reforging Arelon

[Gears]

34 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Interesting. I was assuming that Option 1 was your favorite and the whole reason for your vote. After all, your character said Everything to gain, Nothing to lose. The adjudicator isn't a huge role for us as it generally benefits the village to get their lynch. The only exception in my mind is if it opens a new avenue of information (like opening PMs). Normally, a no lynch benefit the elims marginally more than the village. The village doesn't lose a member, but they also give up info. But we're not really giving up info in the long run by allowing the elims to kill Lotus for two reasons. 1) it doesn't actually have to cost us the lynch. I have no doubt we will reach the 50% of voters this turn and it is far from impossible next turn. 2) If we are worried about not getting a lynch for a turn, Lotus is capable of making that happen more than once by actively blocking our lynch target. Once they have unlocked unimited PMs, adjudicators are more of a liability to the village than than a help as a role.

Option 1 is my favorite and was the reason for my vote, but I had not taken into account 1: the existence of a death penalty and 2: the stipulation that the death is caused by an attack. These two things have cancelled each other out and only incentivised my continued vote on Lotus. [Basically, I'm a fool who was wrong twice over, and I was wrong about being wrong about being wrong.]

11 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I have a slight elim read of Gears for his attack on Lotus, and nothing better to go off of yet. @Gears

I do acknowledge that there is nothing much to go off of and my reasoning was initially based on flawed premises, but I do hope you see the reasoning in my Lotus lynch argument. Just weigh the impacts [assuming Lotus is telling the truth because I can't see a reason why they would be lying as either alignment]

We lynch, elim!Lotus: We get an elim and PMs. I don't think Lotus is an elim, but if they are, great.

We lynch, village!Lotus: We get PMs, don't take a penalty for Lotus dying in the night, and don't lose much. Most likely outcome of the lynch.

We don't lynch, elim!Lotus: We let an elim go. If they don't die in the night, this option becomes more likely. 

We don't lynch, village!Lotus: The elims will probably kill them in the night, causing a death penalty.

If we lynch Lotus, we definitely get PMs and don't take a death penalty. We might catch an elim, though it is unlikely. If we do not lynch Lotus, we either let an elim off the hook or take a death penalty when they are slaughtered in the night unless we manage to plot a rescue mission with King Iadon or a martyr of an Actor [and in that case, we risk protecting an elim]. In my opinion, lynching Lotus causes superior outcomes to not lynching Lotus. 

[---]

14 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Was this for his rash vote for Lotus? What do you think of the analysis he and I have provided since?

I have my reasons, had little to do with his vote on Lotus.

14 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

Ooh this is spicy. wait, which is the elim move? Gears voting for Lotus or Lotus claiming to try to get us to not lynch them? Or you voting for gears?  

But you also misremembered the rules, so Gears is clear?

Yeah sorry. I got here eventually.

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

f we dare to stray into IKYK territory, it's possible elim!Lotus saw the discussion on an elim adjudicator and claimed, thinking there's no way they're gonna think an elim adjudicator claimed after that. But that's pretty specific. I think that's what Gears and maybe Illwei are leaning more towards, which makes Illwei's current vote on Gears interesting as I think they are agreeing on Gears' vote on Lotus. I'm not sure how I view that, I'm probably more on the less aggressive side of Gears' thinking, if there are no other good options, yes we should have a unified lynch and yes, lynching an adjudicator would have some benefits to it. But I'll keep my vote for now

I see both as suspicious things to do.

With Gears: 
(1) He initially voted Lotus simply because she had a role, before he remembered that if someone with the Adjudicator role was NK'd the voting would change. This makes as much sense to me as someone claiming Actor or Burglar, or claiming no role and someone being like "man, that role isn't incredibly useful" and deciding to kill someone because of that. It's not an incredibly useful role for village, but knowing someone has a role isn't a reason to kill them imo. I mean, we don't even know that Lotus has a role. 
(2) After someone points out that if Lotus is killed then the voting rules change. Gears reads this as it will change even if the Adjudicator is voted out, but doesn't retract his vote. Not wanting to change your vote right away seems more like an Elim wanting to appear not suspicious, and not switching off of lotus also seems suspicious because why would you still vote Lotus? you are currently under the impression that if Lotus dies then voting rules will change for the worse? of course you could just be lazy, Or maybe he just thought that no one else would vote for lotus and maybe he would be able to split the vote for the PM benefit or whatever that is. 

It just all seems too much like gears trying to cover his mistakes and it doesn't make all that much sense to me.

Lotus:
Since she said that she's experimenting and this is out of her comfort zone, I can't really assume that she's telling the truth. I have no clue what she is actually trying. I guess in the long run I should completely ignore this like Gear's Elim claim.
(1) She could be a Village Adjudicator, claiming her role to get protection (I mean, pretty sure she didn't claim so she would die...) because no one wants Adjudicator to be NK'd...well, the village doesn't. The Elims probably do. (though if I were an Elim I wouldn't want a dead adjudicator this early) and Idk about the monk. No, the monk definitely wants the Adjudicator dead, huh.
(2) She could be a Elim Adjudicator, both thinking what Matrim mentioned - why would an Elim Adjudicator actually claim after so much speculation, and, I mean, the same thing that ...Vil!Adjudicator!Lotus was thinking: People would want to protect her
(3) She could be an Elim, not Adjudicator, thinking that claiming adjudicator might get her to redirect protection

Basically I should read Lotus' claim as NAI, but it feels more like something an Elim would do - To try and get protection. 

15 minutes ago, Elkanah said:

like the idea of ignoring Lotus for now. If they die, we might get unlimited PMs. If they live an adjudicator isn't that big of a problem to deal with as long as they let us know who they are protecting and murders are available if they don't.

Er, can someone explain why we might get unlimited PMs if Lotus dies?

6 hours ago, Gears said:

I saw no other options for a lynch, considering we have no other suspicions at the moment. If that changes, I might switch off, though given the penalties, perhaps I won't. While I don't think Lotus is an elim, the claim is the best lead we have thus far. Odds are they aren't an elim, but we get PMs, don't get a penalty [which is retroactive reasoning, but no less convincing, hopefully], and might catch an elim Adjudicator. If we assume that an elim Adjudicator exists, then Lotus has a 1/3 [or 1/2, depending on the distribution] chance of being the elim [this probably is affected by the claim, but I don't know enough about people to predict that], which is at least marginally better than the 1/5-1/4 chance of a random person being an elim. As stated, I will switch off if any more pressing suspicions arise.

Again, how does killing lotus get us PMs? 

[+Ed Venture]

Ah wonderful. Thank you for posting Xinoehp.

So. Gears seems to be pushing hard for us to kill Lotus. And I have to say, playing with someone who's goal is to cause chaos is not fun. Your motives are suspect, and your helpful additions are equally dangerous. Lotus, if we kill them yay. If we don't that's bad. But because all of this is coming from a known chaos seeker, here's my compromise. King Iaodon swaps Lotus's roles with someone. We don't have to kill a possible village, and we protect an important role. Y'know...if they are the adujator.

I'm leaving a vote on Gears. They claimed Elim. So kill them. What else is there to say?

[Gears]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Again, how does killing lotus get us PMs? 

According to the rules, a majority vote occurring will get us PMs. Not specifically Lotus, but if a lynch occurs. 

Quote

• Conference - There is a majority vote
  • PMs are unlocked
  • You may create a maximum of two PMs
  • PMs can only be made between two players (for the exception see the Socialite role)
  • Making a PM takes an action
  • Tell the GM whom you would like to open a PM with and that PM will be made for you the following day turn. Please do not make your own PMs
  • If a player with whom you had a PM dies then that PM does not count against your total number of PMs

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

(1) He initially voted Lotus simply because she had a role, before he remembered that if someone with the Adjudicator role was NK'd the voting would change. This makes as much sense to me as someone claiming Actor or Burglar, or claiming no role and someone being like "man, that role isn't incredibly useful" and deciding to kill someone because of that. It's not an incredibly useful role for village, but knowing someone has a role isn't a reason to kill them imo. I mean, we don't even know that Lotus has a role. 
(2) After someone points out that if Lotus is killed then the voting rules change. Gears reads this as it will change even if the Adjudicator is voted out, but doesn't retract his vote. Not wanting to change your vote right away seems more like an Elim wanting to appear not suspicious, and not switching off of lotus also seems suspicious because why would you still vote Lotus? you are currently under the impression that if Lotus dies then voting rules will change for the worse? of course you could just be lazy, Or maybe he just thought that no one else would vote for lotus and maybe he would be able to split the vote for the PM benefit or whatever that is. 

It just all seems too much like gears trying to cover his mistakes and it doesn't make all that much sense to me.

1: I voted Lotus initially because Adjudicator is nearly useless for a villager, elim!adjudicators are very powerful, we need a lynch for PMs, and no other person was a good target. [Votes thus far were pokes or on me.] As I have stated repeatedly, if a better target reveals itself, I would be more than willing to switch off. However, it is D1, so any and all votes will be for flimsy reasoning. We know Lotus has a role because they claimed and I cannot think of a reason why they would be lying. 

2: I kept the vote there because there were no other lynch targets. Sidenote: Maybe I'm the Dakhor Monk Spy and I want to vote on someone no one else would vote for. That would mess up my RP some, but still. It would be interesting. Also, I was on mobile at the time, and it seemed like too much effort since I would have gotten to my computer in about 10 minutes. I think you are perfectly justified in your suspicions. Carry on as usual and do not let this minor mishap in causing my demise bring you much doubt in your capabilities. [Why do I sometimes go into life coach mode? I really need to stop. I am not qualified to advise you on anything.]

5 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

So. Gears seems to be pushing hard for us to kill Lotus. And I have to say, playing with someone who's goal is to cause chaos is not fun. Your motives are suspect, and your helpful additions are equally dangerous. Lotus, if we kill them yay. If we don't that's bad. But because all of this is coming from a known chaos seeker, here's my compromise. King Iaodon swaps Lotus's roles with someone. We don't have to kill a possible village, and we protect an important role. Y'know...if they are the adujator.

I'm leaving a vote on Gears. They claimed Elim. So kill them. What else is there to say?

Your solution does not help if Lotus is an elim. I personally don't think Lotus is an elim, but in the off chance that they are, I would like to be capable of at least preventing their continued existence. If a better target arises, I will be more than willing to switch off. [Also, if I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I'll switch to save myself].

Yes, I claimed elim, but my intent is not to cause chaos. Since claiming elim immediately puts suspicion on me, it disincentivises the elims from killing me. If I then am helpful and useful, people won't lynch me. It also helps as an elim because it provides a handy excuse for why the elims aren't night killing me when I'm being helpful and useful. I am convinced of this strategy's merits. However, each time I have attempted to use it, I have been lynched D1. Hopefully, I can avert that curse this game. 

[+Ed Venture]

4 minutes ago, Gears said:

Your solution does not help if Lotus is an elim. I personally don't think Lotus is an elim, but in the off chance that they are, I would like to be capable of at least preventing their continued existence. If a better target arises, I will be more than willing to switch off. [Also, if I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I'll switch to save myself].

On the contrary, it takes a useful tool out of Elim hands. The ability to negate the lynch, the villages main way of taking out elims, is powerful. And so I feel like it would be in the Village's best interests to either protect Lotus from the elims, by swapping her role. Or protecting the lynch from the Elims, by taking away their ability to manipulate it. So again, I ask King Iadon to swap someone's roles with Lotus.

 

7 minutes ago, Gears said:

I am convinced of this strategy's merits. However, each time I have attempted to use it, I have been lynched D1. Hopefully, I can avert that curse this game. 

*sighs* This feels like the new Poke Voting. Something I dislike, but don't want to take up time arguing about. Perhaps you being lynched...it isn't a curse, but a reality. You get lynched because you're claiming to be the enemy of the majority of players. Just saying

[---]

1 minute ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

*sighs* This feels like the new Poke Voting. Something I dislike, but don't want to take up time arguing about. Perhaps you being lynched...it isn't a curse, but a reality. You get lynched because you're claiming to be the enemy of the majority of players. Just saying

You dislike poke voting but you vote Xino? idk. 
if you don't like poke voting then why wouldn't you have just voted gears for claiming elim back then

[+Ed Venture]

Just now, Illwei said:

You dislike poke voting but you vote Xino? idk. 
if you don't like poke voting then why wouldn't you have just voted gears for claiming elim back then

*nods* You see, I'm trying to understand why people like Poke Voting. I've never liked it, but I'm trying it out this game, as well as trying to vote each cycle, to break a worse habit of never voting ever. I just don't see any benefits to claiming to be elim while village. It only harms the majority. And the Village's most powerful tool is the power of majority.

[---]

Just now, Butt Ad Venture said:

*nods* You see, I'm trying to understand why people like Poke Voting. I've never liked it, but I'm trying it out this game, as well as trying to vote each cycle, to break a worse habit of never voting ever. I just don't see any benefits to claiming to be elim while village. It only harms the majority. And the Village's most powerful tool is the power of majority.

Yeah, that's basically the discussion we had the last game. It's always in Gear's best interests in the long run, but not for the majority, and this is a Team game. 
You can also say that for all the more chaotic players, which is why when in doubt I have no qualms with killing them.

Speaking of- Elkanah, you've been seemingly awfully lawful good so far imo, what's up with that?

[Gears]

3 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

On the contrary, it takes a useful tool out of Elim hands. The ability to negate the lynch, the villages main way of taking out elims, is powerful. And so I feel like it would be in the Village's best interests to either protect Lotus from the elims, by swapping her role. Or protecting the lynch from the Elims, by taking away their ability to manipulate it. So again, I ask King Iadon to swap someone's roles with Lotus.

Your strategy is acceptable. It depends on many unconfirmable factors, but it will suffice. Lotus, I release you. 

6 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

*sighs* This feels like the new Poke Voting. Something I dislike, but don't want to take up time arguing about. Perhaps you being lynched...it isn't a curse, but a reality. You get lynched because you're claiming to be the enemy of the majority of players. Just saying

I personally don't like poke voting either. Just tag the person and be done with it. I know this strategy is probably awful. It will take more games to convince the meta that claiming elim is NAI. However, it seems to be working, since many players have accepted it as a part of my playstyle. There is a risk of it becoming synonymous with my villagerness. Perhaps I should add a random element to my claims. 75% of the time, I'll claim elim. The rest, I won't claim at all. This requires some thought... Most of the votes on me are actually because of my mishandling of the Lotus case, which I find entirely justified.

I shall withhold my vote until a better target reveals itself. If I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I will vote in the interests of self-preservation.

[Wow, I was ninja'd a lot. Perhaps many of my statements were invalidated. Perhaps not. I am going to hit post and see what carnage has been wrought.]

[---]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

Your strategy is acceptable. It depends on many unconfirmable factors, but it will suffice. Lotus, I release you. 

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Absolutely no sense. no sense. none.

Gears
Lotus

[+Lotus she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Absolutely no sense. no sense. none.

Wait, you think Gears strategy makes no sense so you take your vote off him?

Sorry I’ve been quiet. I’m here, I just haven’t had much to say.

[---]

1 minute ago, Lotus said:

Wait, you think Gears strategy makes no sense so you take your vote off him?

I think gears taking his vote off of you right now makes zero sense

[+Lotus she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

3 minutes ago, Lotus said:

 

I think gears taking his vote off of you right now makes zero sense

I mean, I agree. But in that case , wouldn’t you want to keep your vote on gears?

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Absolutely no sense. no sense. none.

Gears
Lotus

Were you not persecuting me earlier for my handling of the Lotus case? I do still think that Lotus should die, but the King Iadon strategy handles the problem well enough to allow it, though I would prefer to lynch Lotus. I simply do not wish to tunnel on a player/strategy/style as I know this is one of my major flaws [see LG67]. I was unaware that anyone agreed with my thought process and thus thought the Lotus lynch was a lost cause. If you are willing to support it, you should have spoken up earlier. I would have been far more confident in my convictions if I felt that I had an ally. I will reserve my vote for a while longer and reread the thread to redraw conclusions. 

[---]

5 minutes ago, Lotus said:

I mean, I agree. But in that case , wouldn’t you want to keep your vote on gears?

Maybe you would :P.

Edited September 27, 2020 by Illwei

[+Lotus she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Maybe you would

*shrug * I just thought it was a odd move. Go for it if it works for you.

[|TJ| he/him]

Gahhhh I'm on a time constraint and shard ate my post. So I'll be extremely brief here.

On 9/26/2020 at 10:06 PM, Gears said:

Standard elim numbers are 20-25%, so 3-4 people. I think an Adjudicator would replace an elim, so if they have one, 2-3. It really depends on how many Kingpins there are. I would expect more Kingpins in the case of an elim Adjudicator.  

Why do you think more no. of elim!Adjudicator depends on no. of Kingpins? Also the Adjudicator replaces an elim theory feels like an attempt to misdirect the village .

On 9/26/2020 at 10:54 PM, Kings_way said:

We definitely don't want the Elims to win, but if we find the spy, we should take them out. That said, I agree that we should focus on elims, because the spy doesn't have a night kill unless they buy a contract.

This is basically repeating what Matrim and Elkanah has told. It's not just saying that "I agree", but it's repeating what they said in the same verbatim. Seems to like wanting to appear helpful. Elim read. 

Some thoughts on other players as I went through the thread:

Devotary - Thoroughly agree with the point that elim would not want to buy insignias as the chances of a lynch with 1 vote difference at this stage of the game is very unlikely and that it would be a waste of money. Other posts felt largely village as well. 

Elkanah - Just one weird point. The fact that he mentioned every villager should buy insignias and it would be recommended to do so. Possible reason as a cover if elim!Elkanah or his teammates are burgled and found to be in possession on an insignia or a ploy to waste the villagers money? Other than this weird point, Elk's been largely LG69-ish. Could you explain exactly what you were thinking when you suggested it, Elk? Null leaning village subject to the reply to my question. 

Illwei - Getting a whole lot of confident vibe from Illwei, which I'm reading it as a village thing. Lots of good points on flippy-floppy nature of Gears as well.

Matrim - Nothing in particular stands out as I recall his posts in thread. Quite helpful and in general, feels like his usual village game. 

Gears - I've previously mentioned my disdain for elim-claiming playstyle. It's not even discouraging the chaotic playstyle, as chaotic playstyle helps the village too. But claiming elim as a villager is purely a selfish motive if it is done with the intent that people might ignore you when you do the same in a future game in which you're an elim. Looking past that, I did not like how quick you were to jump on Lotus' claim but I'm willing to overlook all that because...

Lotus - I cannot, for the life in me, fathom why Lotus would claim Adjudicator is she was the villager. I'm trying to imagine myself as one, and I'm looking at the rules. It clearly states that if I get NK'd, then village needs majority vote for a lynch to be successful. Now why would you read that, then decide to claim, when you know that you'd likely be NK'd which is directly detrimental to the village's cause? I'll have you note the Lotus made a previous post earlier in the cycle which was normal. Only after the discussion about the Adjudicator arose, did she claim as one. If she decided to have a different playstyle from before, shouldn't she have claimed earlier? Lotus

Rollover is early morning again for me (same as LG69/QF47) so I'll most likely not come on again.

Edit: Lots of ninjas, hold on let me read it up and edit again. 

Edit 2: Not...exactly sure why Illwei would changer their vote from Gears to Lotus, while finding that Gears made no sense. Odd.

Edited September 27, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

4 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Why do you think more no. of elim!Adjudicator depends on no. of Kingpins? Also the Adjudicator replaces an elim theory feels like an attempt to misdirect the village .

Kingpins get a discount on contracts. Adjudicators make it difficult to lynch people, forcing them to resort to purchasing assassins. An adjudicator makes an elim immune to the lynch. Is it such a stretch of logic that it would replace an elim?

Now that there is significant support for a Lotus lynch, I will once again throw my support behind that avenue of attack. While this may seem like flip-flopping on my part [and it is, don't get me wrong], a Lotus lynch is far superior to an unconfirmable gambit that might work. 

Edited September 27, 2020 by Gears

[+Lotus she/her]

To be perfectly honest I had completely forgotten about that majority-lunch rule when I claimed.

Actually I originally read that completely wrong too...

[---]

19 hours ago, Lotus said:

Anyway, you know what, I’m going to go way outside my comfort zone and tell everyone right off the bat that I’m a adjuntator.

2 minutes ago, Lotus said:

To be perfectly honest I had completely forgotten about that majority-lunch rule when I claimed.

Okay guys I have a theory: we were operating under the assumption that Lotus had claimed Adjudicator, but it seems that we were wrong. I think there is a secret role we were not aware of: the Adjuntator(tot). this fits with the Majority-Lunch rule that Lotus mentioned. 

I now ask you all to vote lotus, as I am currently hungry and would love some lunch.
--
Okay well if Lotus didn't actually- I- well-

Idk. Anyways so many people viewing the thread at the same time wow

[Mat he/him]

Geez, right when I think it's quiet enough to write up something. Thanks, guys...

37 minutes ago, Gears said:

According to the rules, a majority vote occurring will get us PMs. Not specifically Lotus, but if a lynch occurs. 

1: I voted Lotus initially because Adjudicator is nearly useless for a villager, elim!adjudicators are very powerful, we need a lynch for PMs, and no other person was a good target. [Votes thus far were pokes or on me.] As I have stated repeatedly, if a better target reveals itself, I would be more than willing to switch off. However, it is D1, so any and all votes will be for flimsy reasoning. We know Lotus has a role because they claimed and I cannot think of a reason why they would be lying. 

2: I kept the vote there because there were no other lynch targets. Sidenote: Maybe I'm the Dakhor Monk Spy and I want to vote on someone no one else would vote for. That would mess up my RP some, but still. It would be interesting. Also, I was on mobile at the time, and it seemed like too much effort since I would have gotten to my computer in about 10 minutes. I think you are perfectly justified in your suspicions. Carry on as usual and do not let this minor mishap in causing my demise bring you much doubt in your capabilities. [Why do I sometimes go into life coach mode? I really need to stop. I am not qualified to advise you on anything.]

Your solution does not help if Lotus is an elim. I personally don't think Lotus is an elim, but in the off chance that they are, I would like to be capable of at least preventing their continued existence. If a better target arises, I will be more than willing to switch off. [Also, if I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I'll switch to save myself].

Yes, I claimed elim, but my intent is not to cause chaos. Since claiming elim immediately puts suspicion on me, it disincentivises the elims from killing me. If I then am helpful and useful, people won't lynch me. It also helps as an elim because it provides a handy excuse for why the elims aren't night killing me when I'm being helpful and useful. I am convinced of this strategy's merits. However, each time I have attempted to use it, I have been lynched D1. Hopefully, I can avert that curse this game. 

Couple of things:

First, a village adjudicator isn't useless. If they have a reason to fundamentally disagree with the lynch, they could stop a mislynch. It might not be the most useful role, but no role is nearly useless. 

Second, you kept your vote on Lotus despite being proven wrong, and still didn't remove it even though you said you didn't think Lotus is an elim. I get we need a lynch for PM's, and I get an adjudicator isn't the mostest of hepfullest roles... but voting out the players we think are elims is kinda the point. (This had me ready to put my vote on you, but ninjas.) Saying you're willing to switch off sounds like an easy way out to me.

And finally, don't be surprised that you get voted out D1 for claiming elim, as previously stated. 

16 minutes ago, Gears said:

Your strategy is acceptable. It depends on many unconfirmable factors, but it will suffice. Lotus, I release you. 

See, now that you've switched off I feel like I shouldn't vote on you yet. Sigh. 

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Absolutely no sense. no sense. none.

Gears
Lotus

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Absolutely no sense. no sense. none.

 

But it doesn't. I'd having a very difficult time discerning where this came from.

7 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Lotus - I cannot, for the life in me, fathom why Lotus would claim Adjudicator is she was the villager. I'm trying to imagine myself as one, and I'm looking at the rules. It clearly states that if I get NK'd, then village needs majority vote for a lynch to be successful. Now why would you read that, then decide to claim, when you know that you'd likely be NK'd which is directly detrimental to the village's cause? I'll have you note the Lotus made a previous post earlier in the cycle which was normal. Only after the discussion about the Adjudicator arose, did she claim as one. If she decided to have a different playstyle from before, shouldn't she have claimed earlier? Lotus

That last point is a good one. Though, Lotus could have claimed because she wanted protection (as previously stated), or like she said, just... read the rules wrong, or both. Sometimes strategies do form later than RP posts, but that last point is a good one...

Or she lied about being the Adjudicator altogether, but I don't know what she'd be covering up if that was the case. I believe Elk thinks this.

5 minutes ago, Gears said:

Now that there is significant support for a Lotus lynch, I will once again throw my support behind that avenue of attack. While this may seem like flip-flopping on my part [and it is, don't get me wrong], a Lotus lynch is far superior to an unconfirmable gambit that might work. 

Well, now I'm back on finding Gears suspicious. The flip-flopping is odd, but I still can't get over Gears supporting a lynch he views to be on a villager, reinstated by his switch back. Statistically, on D1, yes, the lynch will probably be a mislynch, but still. Voting on people we find suspicious is the point. You should have some sort of thinking that Lotus is an elim to support this lynch.

I'll tie it by voting Gears. Honestly, I am seeing good arguments for both Gears and Lotus being elims, so it's not super set in stone. PM's aren't looking very likely right now, but if one lynch gains clear favor in everyone else's eyes I'll probably move over (or stay) to get them. I don't have enough of a preference over Gears/Lotus to avoid PM's.

[---]

You know, wait. I don't make sense to me either there. 

I think gears is sus for a few things, but I also think that his reasoning for voting lotus makes sense. I'm not sure that having Iadon switch is great, as 1) trust, and 2) whoever he switched with might not be trustworthy as well. Idk. 

But, I guess following gears' reasoning when he's my other top Elim read doesn't make much sense.

--

Both votes were for info and the info I did get. Unsure if it's useful or not yet, I'll have to wait a few cycles to see probably.

Edited September 27, 2020 by Illwei

[Vapor she/her]

I don't completely get why Lotus is being lynched. Will somebody explain? Also, Gears. He's claiming elim and is making no sense whatsoever. But maybe that's just me, I'm operating on almost no sleep and I've been kinda busy.

[Mist she/her]

I'm inclined to read Lotus as village for claiming Adjudicator. I also forgot about the penalty upon an Adjudicator's death. 

I will certainly support a Gears lynch.

On 9/26/2020 at 3:38 AM, TJ Shade said:

Re-reading the rules as I had initially just rushed through them. We need to be very careful about an elim!Adjudicator and hence be careful about mentioning suspicion beforehand. It would be recommended not to mention any suspicion that would make it obvious to an elim Adjudicator that their fellow elim might be the target of majority of the players to lynch. We'd waste an important cycle that way. If you are afraid that you'll die, mention your suspicions at the last moment of the Night cycle. 

Speaking of Adjudicator, I've got a question. What will happen if an Adjudicator saves a player from the lynch? Will there be no elimination that cycle, or will the player with second highest votes will be eliminated?

Not sharing suspicions also hurts the village to an extent.

22 hours ago, Gears said:

I am bad at analysing people, so I shall instead analyse posts and in doing so, analyse the people. 

1 Matrim: RP

2 Lotus: RP

3 Venture: RP

4 Ventyl: RP

5 Elkanah: RP + questions

6 Kynedath: Answers, all hail.

7 Elkanah: More questions, noble insignia good [Noble Insignia's are definitely not necessary for everyone, especially considering that the double vote is the same price]

8 Kynedath: Answers, all hail.

9 Elkanah: Clarifying questions

10 Kynedath: Answers, all hail

11 Elkanah: Money analysis [The problem is that the elims can just wait a cycle to buy the Murder contract]

12 TJ: Elim adjudicator = BAD NEWS [It's not that bad. Just don't regale the thread with your suspicions, hire assassins in the night, and be not afraid]

13 Gears: Analysis, RP, elim claim

14 Kynedath: Answers, all hail.

15 Venture: Pokes xino

16 Matrim: Noble insignias meh. Gears elim claim NAI [It is working!] Pokes Ash. Wants PMs

17 Ventyl: Votes Gears with weirdly worded reasoning [Chaos = good/bad? "elim too"]

18 Elkanah: General responses to posts. Ignore spy, likes PMs. Pokes Devo.

19 Matrim: Ignore the spy, if spy known protect it.

20 Gears: If elim!Adjudicator, Kingpin++. Agree with Matrim.

21 Elkanah: Agrees with Matrim. Hypothesises role distribution.

22 Kings_way: Thinks should kill spy if discovered.

23 Gears: Further hypothesises role distribution. Protect spy if discovered.

24 Vapor: People analysis.

25 Kynedath: Rule change, all hail.

26 Matrim: Question.

27 Kynedath: Answer, all hail.

28 Matrim: Chatty = village. 

29 Vapor: Mist isn't here.

30 Devotary: Responses. Noble Insignias meh. Ignore spy. PMs = good, no vote = bad. Elim!adjudicator not that dangerous.

31 Ventyl: Question.

32 Ash: RP.

33 Matrim: Ash exists.

34 Mist: Exists.

35 Ventyl: Retracts Gears

36 Elkanah: Reads

37 Ventyl: Was joke vote

38 Elkanah: Ninjas are annoying

39 Kynedath: Answers, all hail.

40 Ventyl: Sadness.

Matrim: I instinctively want to trust them because they think my elim claim is NAI. However, this read is null.

Elkanah: I like the discussion, though they are thus far NAI. Slight village for chit-chat, but objectively a null.

Kings_way: I fundamentally disagree with their spy strategy. Slight elim for that, but they're a newbie.

Summary of posts, reads, but not exactly what I think of when I think of analysis of posts. 

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

Lotus:
Since she said that she's experimenting and this is out of her comfort zone, I can't really assume that she's telling the truth. I have no clue what she is actually trying. I guess in the long run I should completely ignore this like Gear's Elim claim.
(1) She could be a Village Adjudicator, claiming her role to get protection (I mean, pretty sure she didn't claim so she would die...) because no one wants Adjudicator to be NK'd...well, the village doesn't. The Elims probably do. (though if I were an Elim I wouldn't want a dead adjudicator this early) and Idk about the monk. No, the monk definitely wants the Adjudicator dead, huh.
(2) She could be a Elim Adjudicator, both thinking what Matrim mentioned - why would an Elim Adjudicator actually claim after so much speculation, and, I mean, the same thing that ...Vil!Adjudicator!Lotus was thinking: People would want to protect her
(3) She could be an Elim, not Adjudicator, thinking that claiming adjudicator might get her to redirect protection

Basically I should read Lotus' claim as NAI, but it feels more like something an Elim would do - To try and get protection. 

Theoretically, they could be village not Adjudicator, although I doubt that. I'm assuming they're telling the truth about forgetting the penalty and probably about their role. If Lotus is village, I'm guessing they are an Adjudicator. 

 

I think Illwei was saying the reasoning to lynch Lotus makes sense, why are you deciding not to lynch her.

10 minutes ago, Vapor said:

I don't completely get why Lotus is being lynched. Will somebody explain? Also, Gears. He's claiming elim and is making no sense whatsoever. But maybe that's just me, I'm operating on almost no sleep and I've been kinda busy.

She claimed a role that has a penalty if it dies to an attack, so people a) aren't sure why she claimed and would rather have her die to the lynch, with no penalty, than to an attack. 

Do I enjoy putting cool people ( ) in my posts too much? Maybe. 

 

So, reads. Mild suspicion on Gears for claim, Lotus vote, and summarizing but not analyzing posts. Slight village on Lotus for claim. Slight suspicion on TJ for post quoted above.

[Elkanah he/him]

I love the activity!

[2 hours and thirty ninjas later: you are welcome or maybe even encouraged to skip to the part about you. I'll come up with a TL;DR of all of my posts because if I can't parse my own arguments you shouldn't have to.]

As Promised

8 hours ago, Gears said:

I saw no other options for a lynch, considering we have no other suspicions at the moment. If that changes, I might switch off, though given the penalties, perhaps I won't. While I don't think Lotus is an elim, the claim is the best lead we have thus far. Odds are they aren't an elim, but we get PMs, don't get a penalty [which is retroactive reasoning, but no less convincing, hopefully], and might catch an elim Adjudicator. If we assume that an elim Adjudicator exists, then Lotus has a 1/3 [or 1/2, depending on the distribution] chance of being the elim [this probably is affected by the claim, but I don't know enough about people to predict that], which is at least marginally better than the 1/5-1/4 chance of a random person being an elim. As stated, I will switch off if any more pressing suspicions arise.

Interesting. I now have the benefit of analyzing this after you removed your vote... Good thing I ran out of time earlier. I believe your logic here is flawed. It presupposes too heavily that there is an elim adjudicator. While it serves them best, we still are far from sure about that... three ninjas, you have gone back on all of this.

I don't know yet how to read this. I'd vote for you, but this too - I don't know- easy? You are easily my top suspect at the moment, but I really don't want to vote for you because I want you to be village. I also disagree with everyone else's reasons for suspecting you. If I vote for you, does that mean I agree with the others even though I don't agree with their reasons?

Gears Posts

Spoiler

On 9/26/2020 at 6:10 AM, Gears said:

Alas, rollover happens whilst I languish deep in slumber. Do not expect anything out of me for the first 8-10 hours of a cycle. For lack of other things to do, rule analysis commences below.

Factions: The village wants the Dakhor Monk Spy alive since the Fjorden Sympathisers will actively try not to live while this is the case. The Fjorden Sympathisers want the Dakhor Monk Spy dead because they cannot win until this is so. The Dakhor Monk Spy wants the Fjorden Sympathisers to win so they can snatch victory out of their blood-stained hands. Option 1: Actively try to keep the Dakhor Monk Spy alive while they work against the village. Option 2: Let the Dakhor Monk Spy die as it will and just focus on finding the Fjorden Sympathisers. Option 3: Actively try to kill the Dakhor Monk Spy. I personally prefer the second option. 

Roles:

King Iadon: Swap 2 people's role. @Kynedath, what happens if King Iadon targets a faction-specific role? Can KIng Iadon target themself? It is a priority to keep this role alive, not for the role itself but for the consequences upon its untimely demise. If King Iadon dies, the Executive Secretary [our only scanner] loses its abilities and the Markets are shut down. Keep yourself alive, oh great King. We are lost without your royal visage.

Adjudicator: Grants lynch immunity. If an elim has this role, we should all fear the power of judges and decision makers. However, it cannot self target, so we should defenestrate this individual as soon as possible. If you are a villager with this role, do not use it until you are certain of the innocence of your comrade, and even then, hesitate.

Executive Secretary: Our best and only scanner. Stay alive. The longer you live, the more precious you become. Try not to be too obvious with your information. We need you.

Socialite: Chit-chat the rattle-cat. Useless until PMs open. Perhaps we can intentionally split the vote to allow Socialites to create group PMs. The anonymous message feature can be useful if you have anything to share privately.

Actor: Makes players lose money, acts as a stunt double. If you are ever going to be murdered, go body-hunting.

Trademaster: For the sake of our wallets, stay alive. 

Kingpin: For the sake of our wallets, stay alive.

Burgler: Accumulate four items as fast as you can. Then do what you want with them.

Lynch: The only bad scenarios are Martial Law and Anarchy. These strictly benefit elims since they make it harder to lynch people.

Actions: Role, money, purchasing, PMs. 

PMs: We should have a lynch today just to unlock PMs. Then we can decide if we want abstain for a cycle to be free of limits. 

Currency: Useful. Hoard it like the dragons of old. Wealth is power.

Items:

Noble Insignia: If you think you'll be suspicious, feel free to take this. For instance, I am planning on claiming elim yet again in hopes that it will finally work this time.

Trade Rights: Great way to ensure someone's demise. 

Embargo: Roleblock. 

Personal Messenger: A PM for those bereft of actions. 

Contracts:

Murder: Expensive, if you think someone is an elim that won't be lynched, you are welcome to try.

Surveillance: This is good. Get it. Opens up some bus strategies.

Mercenary Bodyguard: A protect. 

Identity Theft: @Kynedath, can this theft steal faction-specific roles? Fascinating. So many possibilities.

---

Kadio grinned as the customers flowed through the markets like water, bringing their wealth with them. Did they know that the merchant guild was colluding to drive up prices? Perhaps, perhaps not. But they spent Deo like it was toxic, and the merchants profited. Abruptly, he coughed violently. Terminal illness. He would not live for very long. He was wealthy, but his wealth could not save him from this. He was the best of the merchants, and yet he was to be struck down. He would not allow it. If he was to die, all others would die with him. The Fjorden priests wished to overthrow the merchants. Ordinarily, he would slaughter them, but now? When his lungs had decided to tear themselves apart? Trying circumstances bring the strangest of allies. 

[For those who cannot tell, I am claiming elim yet again. I promise this strategy has merit. Also, I find it funny. You are welcome to disagree with me, but what's done is done.]

1

2

On 9/26/2020 at 10:36 AM, Gears said:

Standard elim numbers are 20-25%, so 3-4 people. I think an Adjudicator would replace an elim, so if they have one, 2-3. It really depends on how many Kingpins there are. I would expect more Kingpins in the case of an elim Adjudicator.  

Option 2 definitely seems superior in the early game. If the spy is still alive by the late game, we can transition to Option 1. I only brought up Option 3 for those paranoid folks who don't like people actively working against the village that we don't want to kill. 

---

Kadio smiled emptily at the customers. Money may have made him happier once, but only the downfall of the merchants would satisfy him now. The Fjorden priests were in position. Soon, they would strike. However, there were rumors of Dakhor monks in the city. The bone priests were mysterious things, a natural shifting of one's body into something grotesque and strange. Could such twisting save him from the sickness coiling through his flesh? Probably not, and even if it could, the monks were secretive about the art. The monk could snatch victory from the hands of those who sympathised with the enemy. A danger, though not one that could be easily rectified. The bones were not obvious from first glance. Fortunately, the merchants seemed content to ignore the Dakhor monk in their midst, so it would not be too difficult to strike it down once it was found. 

As he handed goods to his customers, his hands shook. The disease was destroying him, one piece at a time. Nothing could save him now. Better to bring down the world with him.

3

On 9/26/2020 at 11:28 AM, Gears said:

Very true. Concerning roles/alignments: I don't think the spy would count as an elim because the elims actively want the spy dead and the village doesn't need the spy dead. 4 elims/3 and an Adjudicator is probably a good bet. There would be the same number of Trademasters and Kingpins, leaning towards an extra Kingpin if an elim Adjudicator exists. Also, the spy is not a role, it's a faction. Given that, either another actor or socialite. 

King Iadon: 1 [VILLAGE]

Executive Secretary: 1 [VILLAGE]

Kingpin: 2, maybe three in the case of elim Adjudicator.

Trademaster: 2.

Actor: 1-2, probably not more than that.

Burglar: 1-2, probably not more than that.

Adjudicator: 2, maybe three in the case of elim Adjudicator.

Socialite: 3-4.

I would argue that if we find the spy, we should actively protect them, or at the very least conceal their identity to the best of our ability, to hurt the elims, especially considering the lack of a night kill. 

4

21 hours ago, Gears said:

I am bad at analysing people, so I shall instead analyse posts and in doing so, analyse the people. 

1 Matrim: RP

2 Lotus: RP

3 Venture: RP

4 Ventyl: RP

5 Elkanah: RP + questions

6 Kynedath: Answers, all hail.

7 Elkanah: More questions, noble insignia good [Noble Insignia's are definitely not necessary for everyone, especially considering that the double vote is the same price]

8 Kynedath: Answers, all hail.

9 Elkanah: Clarifying questions

10 Kynedath: Answers, all hail

11 Elkanah: Money analysis [The problem is that the elims can just wait a cycle to buy the Murder contract]

12 TJ: Elim adjudicator = BAD NEWS [It's not that bad. Just don't regale the thread with your suspicions, hire assassins in the night, and be not afraid]

13 Gears: Analysis, RP, elim claim

14 Kynedath: Answers, all hail.

15 Venture: Pokes xino

16 Matrim: Noble insignias meh. Gears elim claim NAI [It is working!] Pokes Ash. Wants PMs

17 Ventyl: Votes Gears with weirdly worded reasoning [Chaos = good/bad? "elim too"]

18 Elkanah: General responses to posts. Ignore spy, likes PMs. Pokes Devo.

19 Matrim: Ignore the spy, if spy known protect it.

20 Gears: If elim!Adjudicator, Kingpin++. Agree with Matrim.

21 Elkanah: Agrees with Matrim. Hypothesises role distribution.

22 Kings_way: Thinks should kill spy if discovered.

23 Gears: Further hypothesises role distribution. Protect spy if discovered.

24 Vapor: People analysis.

25 Kynedath: Rule change, all hail.

26 Matrim: Question.

27 Kynedath: Answer, all hail.

28 Matrim: Chatty = village. 

29 Vapor: Mist isn't here.

30 Devotary: Responses. Noble Insignias meh. Ignore spy. PMs = good, no vote = bad. Elim!adjudicator not that dangerous.

31 Ventyl: Question.

32 Ash: RP.

33 Matrim: Ash exists.

34 Mist: Exists.

35 Ventyl: Retracts Gears

36 Elkanah: Reads

37 Ventyl: Was joke vote

38 Elkanah: Ninjas are annoying

39 Kynedath: Answers, all hail.

40 Ventyl: Sadness.

Matrim: I instinctively want to trust them because they think my elim claim is NAI. However, this read is null.

Elkanah: I like the discussion, though they are thus far NAI. Slight village for chit-chat, but objectively a null.

Kings_way: I fundamentally disagree with their spy strategy. Slight elim for that, but they're a newbie.

Anyone not mentioned is a null.

[@Ashbringer, you have a talent for prose. Have you ever considered writing a novel? If so, act on these considerations at once. If not, begin considering]

---

The bone fragments that littered the alleyways were made no less disturbing by their multiplicity. There was no flesh, no blood. Only bone, and the acrid scent of burning flesh. Some Fjorden priests had tried to find the spy by their own methods. Trial by fire, they said. Leave the soul for Domi, and we'll take the bones. Kadio wasn't squeamish, but the priests' methods left a bitter taste in his mouth. Or maybe that was the ash he'd inhaled in the brief moments he'd been standing here, in front of these things that used to be people. He turned away, but those bone fragments lingered in his mind's eye for a long time.

5

19 hours ago, Gears said:

I expected at least one village adjudicator. Perhaps two. However, a village adjudicator is not particularly useful, so it would be no great loss if we were to lynch Lotus for being an adjudicator. If no other possibilities appear by the end of the cycle, we should lynch them. 

---

Kadio laughed. As it turned out, Sunwalker the Unlucky was a judge. "Kill them," he said coldly. "Everything to gain if we do, nothing to lose if we don't."

6

17 hours ago, Gears said:

I... completely forgot about the adjudicator death penalty because I'm an idiot and a plebe undeserving of life. I'm keeping the vote there until a better option arises though.

It's mostly a placeholder until any suspicions arise. I don't particularly believe Lotus is an elim. I don't not believe they're an elim, but still.

7

17 hours ago, Gears said:

Alas, I am doubly a fool. Option 1: Lynch Lotus, ensuring that we do not take a penalty. Option 2: Ignore Lotus, most likely allowing the elims to kill them. Option 3: Plan a rescue mission involving a martyr Actor or the great King Iadon. Option 3 is better than Option 1 is better than Option 2, but Option 3 is risky and unreliable because 1: Most people are not willing to be martyrs and 2: The King could swap the role with an elim. Option 1 is guaranteed, but we do lose an adjudicator. We definitely should get a lynch to open PMs, so I'll leave my vote on Lotus for now. If a better lynch target comes up, I'll switch off.

8

16 hours ago, Gears said:

Could you elaborate on your suspicions? I am well aware of the fact that I claimed elim, but I vow upon something valuable that this strategy has merit and will be beneficial in the end. However, other than that, I don't think I've done anything particularly worthy of note.

9

16 hours ago, Gears said:

Alright. I tend to accuse people rather than trust them because I am well aware of my susceptibility to well-reasoned analysis. However, don't listen to me. You're new. You have to learn to stand without the opinions of others supporting you. Do things because they make sense to you, not because they actually make sense. I believe in your capabilities. 

10

8 hours ago, Gears said:

I saw no other options for a lynch, considering we have no other suspicions at the moment. If that changes, I might switch off, though given the penalties, perhaps I won't. While I don't think Lotus is an elim, the claim is the best lead we have thus far. Odds are they aren't an elim, but we get PMs, don't get a penalty [which is retroactive reasoning, but no less convincing, hopefully], and might catch an elim Adjudicator. If we assume that an elim Adjudicator exists, then Lotus has a 1/3 [or 1/2, depending on the distribution] chance of being the elim [this probably is affected by the claim, but I don't know enough about people to predict that], which is at least marginally better than the 1/5-1/4 chance of a random person being an elim. As stated, I will switch off if any more pressing suspicions arise.

11

1 hour ago, Gears said:

Option 1 is my favorite and was the reason for my vote, but I had not taken into account 1: the existence of a death penalty and 2: the stipulation that the death is caused by an attack. These two things have cancelled each other out and only incentivised my continued vote on Lotus. [Basically, I'm a fool who was wrong twice over, and I was wrong about being wrong about being wrong.]

I do acknowledge that there is nothing much to go off of and my reasoning was initially based on flawed premises, but I do hope you see the reasoning in my Lotus lynch argument. Just weigh the impacts [assuming Lotus is telling the truth because I can't see a reason why they would be lying as either alignment]

We lynch, elim!Lotus: We get an elim and PMs. I don't think Lotus is an elim, but if they are, great.

We lynch, village!Lotus: We get PMs, don't take a penalty for Lotus dying in the night, and don't lose much. Most likely outcome of the lynch.

We don't lynch, elim!Lotus: We let an elim go. If they don't die in the night, this option becomes more likely. 

We don't lynch, village!Lotus: The elims will probably kill them in the night, causing a death penalty.

If we lynch Lotus, we definitely get PMs and don't take a death penalty. We might catch an elim, though it is unlikely. If we do not lynch Lotus, we either let an elim off the hook or take a death penalty when they are slaughtered in the night unless we manage to plot a rescue mission with King Iadon or a martyr of an Actor [and in that case, we risk protecting an elim]. In my opinion, lynching Lotus causes superior outcomes to not lynching Lotus. 

12

40 minutes ago, Gears said:

According to the rules, a majority vote occurring will get us PMs. Not specifically Lotus, but if a lynch occurs. 

1: I voted Lotus initially because Adjudicator is nearly useless for a villager, elim!adjudicators are very powerful, we need a lynch for PMs, and no other person was a good target. [Votes thus far were pokes or on me.] As I have stated repeatedly, if a better target reveals itself, I would be more than willing to switch off. However, it is D1, so any and all votes will be for flimsy reasoning. We know Lotus has a role because they claimed and I cannot think of a reason why they would be lying. 

2: I kept the vote there because there were no other lynch targets. Sidenote: Maybe I'm the Dakhor Monk Spy and I want to vote on someone no one else would vote for. That would mess up my RP some, but still. It would be interesting. Also, I was on mobile at the time, and it seemed like too much effort since I would have gotten to my computer in about 10 minutes. I think you are perfectly justified in your suspicions. Carry on as usual and do not let this minor mishap in causing my demise bring you much doubt in your capabilities. [Why do I sometimes go into life coach mode? I really need to stop. I am not qualified to advise you on anything.]

Your solution does not help if Lotus is an elim. I personally don't think Lotus is an elim, but in the off chance that they are, I would like to be capable of at least preventing their continued existence. If a better target arises, I will be more than willing to switch off. [Also, if I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I'll switch to save myself].

Yes, I claimed elim, but my intent is not to cause chaos. Since claiming elim immediately puts suspicion on me, it disincentivises the elims from killing me. If I then am helpful and useful, people won't lynch me. It also helps as an elim because it provides a handy excuse for why the elims aren't night killing me when I'm being helpful and useful. I am convinced of this strategy's merits. However, each time I have attempted to use it, I have been lynched D1. Hopefully, I can avert that curse this game. 

13

19 minutes ago, Gears said:

Your strategy is acceptable. It depends on many unconfirmable factors, but it will suffice. Lotus, I release you. 

I personally don't like poke voting either. Just tag the person and be done with it. I know this strategy is probably awful. It will take more games to convince the meta that claiming elim is NAI. However, it seems to be working, since many players have accepted it as a part of my playstyle. There is a risk of it becoming synonymous with my villagerness. Perhaps I should add a random element to my claims. 75% of the time, I'll claim elim. The rest, I won't claim at all. This requires some thought... Most of the votes on me are actually because of my mishandling of the Lotus case, which I find entirely justified.

I shall withhold my vote until a better target reveals itself. If I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I will vote in the interests of self-preservation.

[Wow, I was ninja'd a lot. Perhaps many of my statements were invalidated. Perhaps not. I am going to hit post and see what carnage has been wrought.]

14

8 minutes ago, Gears said:

Were you not persecuting me earlier for my handling of the Lotus case? I do still think that Lotus should die, but the King Iadon strategy handles the problem well enough to allow it, though I would prefer to lynch Lotus. I simply do not wish to tunnel on a player/strategy/style as I know this is one of my major flaws [see LG67]. I was unaware that anyone agreed with my thought process and thus thought the Lotus lynch was a lost cause. If you are willing to support it, you should have spoken up earlier. I would have been far more confident in my convictions if I felt that I had an ally. I will reserve my vote for a while longer and reread the thread to redraw conclusions. 

 

Post 1 - Rules Recap and elim claim. completely NAI

Post 2 - Prefers to let the spy do as he will. Still NAI

Post 3 - Distribution guessing. NAI

Post 4 - Good post analysis where he almost trusts me and Matrim and almost distrusts Kings Way.

Post 5 -  Votes Lotus

Post 6 - Reconsiders vote

Post 7 - Reaffirms vote

Post 8 - Asks for reason Illwei is voting for him

Post 9 - Offers advice. NAI

Post 10 - This one is the one that starts setting off alarms for me. Lynching someone is important, but... jumping on the first person who you think can get lynched is... disconcerting. I agree lynching an elim adjudicator would be nice. I still am not totally convinced Lotus is an adjudicator. let alone an elim.

Post 11 - This does resolve my concerns from my last post well. Total sense. NAI

Post 12 - No other person was a good target is a big pill for me to swallow. This line of reasoning isn't working for me. I need to do this post more justice so I'll come back to it. There is a lot in here.

Post 13 - Backing off here? Not backing off back at post eight? or eleven? The rest of the post is completely NAI. What changed?! The Iadon plan had already been produced for a while.

Post 14 - Back to consistency. 

Post 15 - Revoted on Lotus. NAI

Posts 10 and 13 have thrown me for a loop. Honestly, I think you're the spy, so I'm not especially out for your blood. Even so, that makes it so neither lynch is especially good for me right now. If it comes down to it I'd probably vote for Gears over Lotus for the moment.

-------------------------------------------

On to the rest of the things.

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

If we dare to stray into IKYK territory, it's possible elim!Lotus saw the discussion on an elim adjudicator and claimed, thinking there's no way they're gonna think an elim adjudicator claimed after that. But that's pretty specific. I think that's what Gears and maybe Illwei are leaning more towards, which makes Illwei's current vote on Gears interesting as I think they are agreeing on Gears' vote on Lotus. I'm not sure how I view that, I'm probably more on the less aggressive side of Gears' thinking, if there are no other good options, yes we should have a unified lynch and yes, lynching an adjudicator would have some benefits to it. But I'll keep my vote for now

@TJ Shade, any thoughts on the current situation? You posted some earlier in the turn and have now vanished. Sorry if you had said you were gonna be less active this game or this turn specifically and I forgot.

hahahahaha. I need to stay out of this one. That leads to so many theories that are just better brought up once we have a few role flips.

Yeah, TJ said he'd have less time this game due to being a functioning person with a job.

1 hour ago, xinoehp512 said:

Here I am, caught up on events...! sort of. 
Here's the vote as I count it:
Xino (2) Venture, Elk
Lotus (1) Gears
Gears (2) Illwei, Xino

I don't have an abundance of time, so here are some quick thoughts. I don't think that Lotus is evil- a claim gains her nothing if she's an eliminator. (Elims generally have the goal of drawing attention away from themselves, in fact.) Losing minority lynch would be a nuisance, but not enough of one to lynch her for it.

I have a slight elim read of Gears for his attack on Lotus, and nothing better to go off of yet. @Gears
 

Hello Xinoehp! Welcome to the fray. Madness-dot-game. It looks like Venture has removed his vote as promised. I'm glad we got you here. I am going to leave my vote on you for a bit longer as you have given two tells of being an elim so far. I do appreciate the vote count, but providing one unprovoked is a good way of looking like contributing without actually adding anything alignment indicative. Also as has been mentioned, you tend to be quieter as an elim than as a villager. 

Generally I agree with your analysis of Lotus and with Gears as the other real lynch choice, I will leave my vote on you for now. I'm likely to remove it if it will get me PMs, or someone goofs.

1 hour ago, Gears said:

Option 1 is my favorite and was the reason for my vote, but I had not taken into account 1: the existence of a death penalty and 2: the stipulation that the death is caused by an attack. These two things have cancelled each other out and only incentivised my continued vote on Lotus. [Basically, I'm a fool who was wrong twice over, and I was wrong about being wrong about being wrong.]

I do acknowledge that there is nothing much to go off of and my reasoning was initially based on flawed premises, but I do hope you see the reasoning in my Lotus lynch argument. Just weigh the impacts [assuming Lotus is telling the truth because I can't see a reason why they would be lying as either alignment]

We lynch, elim!Lotus: We get an elim and PMs. I don't think Lotus is an elim, but if they are, great.

We lynch, village!Lotus: We get PMs, don't take a penalty for Lotus dying in the night, and don't lose much. Most likely outcome of the lynch.

We don't lynch, elim!Lotus: We let an elim go. If they don't die in the night, this option becomes more likely. 

We don't lynch, village!Lotus: The elims will probably kill them in the night, causing a death penalty.

If we lynch Lotus, we definitely get PMs and don't take a death penalty. We might catch an elim, though it is unlikely. If we do not lynch Lotus, we either let an elim off the hook or take a death penalty when they are slaughtered in the night unless we manage to plot a rescue mission with King Iadon or a martyr of an Actor [and in that case, we risk protecting an elim]. In my opinion, lynching Lotus causes superior outcomes to not lynching Lotus. 

Ah right, this post. Thank you for your answer. This helped me to understand your reasoning a lot better. 

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

I have my reasons, had little to do with his vote on Lotus.

I see both as suspicious things to do.

With Gears: 
(1) He initially voted Lotus simply because she had a role, before he remembered that if someone with the Adjudicator role was NK'd the voting would change. This makes as much sense to me as someone claiming Actor or Burglar, or claiming no role and someone being like "man, that role isn't incredibly useful" and deciding to kill someone because of that. It's not an incredibly useful role for village, but knowing someone has a role isn't a reason to kill them imo. I mean, we don't even know that Lotus has a role. 
(2) After someone points out that if Lotus is killed then the voting rules change. Gears reads this as it will change even if the Adjudicator is voted out, but doesn't retract his vote. Not wanting to change your vote right away seems more like an Elim wanting to appear not suspicious, and not switching off of lotus also seems suspicious because why would you still vote Lotus? you are currently under the impression that if Lotus dies then voting rules will change for the worse? of course you could just be lazy, Or maybe he just thought that no one else would vote for lotus and maybe he would be able to split the vote for the PM benefit or whatever that is. 

It just all seems too much like gears trying to cover his mistakes and it doesn't make all that much sense to me.

Lotus:
Since she said that she's experimenting and this is out of her comfort zone, I can't really assume that she's telling the truth. I have no clue what she is actually trying. I guess in the long run I should completely ignore this like Gear's Elim claim.
(1) She could be a Village Adjudicator, claiming her role to get protection (I mean, pretty sure she didn't claim so she would die...) because no one wants Adjudicator to be NK'd...well, the village doesn't. The Elims probably do. (though if I were an Elim I wouldn't want a dead adjudicator this early) and Idk about the monk. No, the monk definitely wants the Adjudicator dead, huh.
(2) She could be a Elim Adjudicator, both thinking what Matrim mentioned - why would an Elim Adjudicator actually claim after so much speculation, and, I mean, the same thing that ...Vil!Adjudicator!Lotus was thinking: People would want to protect her
(3) She could be an Elim, not Adjudicator, thinking that claiming adjudicator might get her to redirect protection

Basically I should read Lotus' claim as NAI, but it feels more like something an Elim would do - To try and get protection. 

Er, can someone explain why we might get unlimited PMs if Lotus dies?

Again, how does killing lotus get us PMs? 

Great argument!

Gears

1) This is true, unless he voted because of the talk of a likely elim adjudicator. Either way that was a fair enough call to vote for him based on the lack of information made in the post with his vote.

2) I'd say Lazy is taking it a bit far. He may not have had a better lynch target and decided to wait a minute until he did. I would be more amenable to lynching Lotus if that did make voting next cycle harder. I'd like open PMs and the adjudicator death trigger is a good way of getting there. I'll explain that in more detail in a minute.

Lotus

A) That is an interesting point. We probably should write Lotus' comment about trying a new playstyle as NAI. However, it has become centerpoint to the lynch and that's why we are digging so hard at it.

1) I'm not sure what protection Lotus would hope to gain. Our best option at the moment is taking their role and swapping it with something else... although there's an idea. 

     1a) Why does the monk want the adjudicator dead?

2) I'm still not seeing available protection.

3) Now there's an idea. This makes more sense than either of the other two.

May I submit: 4) Lotus is an actor trying to draw and redirect an elim kill?

or perhaps:    5) Lotus is the monk and is trying something convoluted that I haven't realized yet?

 

Private Messages Plan

If I vote on either of the current candidates, I break the tie and one of them is majority lynched. This brings the gift of PMs. We are capped at starting two ongoing PMs each. If anything were to prevent us successfully lynching someone once PMs were opened but limited, we lose the limit. One thing that would make it inconvenient to lynch someone is an adjudicator being night killed. Thus we start PMs cycle 1 and remove limits on PMs cycle 2. Therefore, I propose we do nothing to protect Lotus except not lynch them.

52 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

Ah wonderful. Thank you for posting Xinoehp.

So. Gears seems to be pushing hard for us to kill Lotus. And I have to say, playing with someone who's goal is to cause chaos is not fun. Your motives are suspect, and your helpful additions are equally dangerous. Lotus, if we kill them yay. If we don't that's bad. But because all of this is coming from a known chaos seeker, here's my compromise. King Iaodon swaps Lotus's roles with someone. We don't have to kill a possible village, and we protect an important role. Y'know...if they are the adujator.

I'm leaving a vote on Gears. They claimed Elim. So kill them. What else is there to say?

How'd that poke vote feel?

ahh now that's not fair. I've caused my share of chaos and it was great! 

Interesting. I appreciate the clear lines you draw here. You are actively aligning with Lotus and against Gears. such tasty information.

Fair call. Gears knows the risks of claiming elim, so you are welcome to try to lynch him for it.

42 minutes ago, Gears said:

According to the rules, a majority vote occurring will get us PMs. Not specifically Lotus, but if a lynch occurs. 

1: I voted Lotus initially because Adjudicator is nearly useless for a villager, elim!adjudicators are very powerful, we need a lynch for PMs, and no other person was a good target. [Votes thus far were pokes or on me.] As I have stated repeatedly, if a better target reveals itself, I would be more than willing to switch off. However, it is D1, so any and all votes will be for flimsy reasoning. We know Lotus has a role because they claimed and I cannot think of a reason why they would be lying. 

2: I kept the vote there because there were no other lynch targets. Sidenote: Maybe I'm the Dakhor Monk Spy and I want to vote on someone no one else would vote for. That would mess up my RP some, but still. It would be interesting. Also, I was on mobile at the time, and it seemed like too much effort since I would have gotten to my computer in about 10 minutes. I think you are perfectly justified in your suspicions. Carry on as usual and do not let this minor mishap in causing my demise bring you much doubt in your capabilities. [Why do I sometimes go into life coach mode? I really need to stop. I am not qualified to advise you on anything.]

Your solution does not help if Lotus is an elim. I personally don't think Lotus is an elim, but in the off chance that they are, I would like to be capable of at least preventing their continued existence. If a better target arises, I will be more than willing to switch off. [Also, if I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I'll switch to save myself].

Yes, I claimed elim, but my intent is not to cause chaos. Since claiming elim immediately puts suspicion on me, it disincentivises the elims from killing me. If I then am helpful and useful, people won't lynch me. It also helps as an elim because it provides a handy excuse for why the elims aren't night killing me when I'm being helpful and useful. I am convinced of this strategy's merits. However, each time I have attempted to use it, I have been lynched D1. Hopefully, I can avert that curse this game. 

1. If I understand the underlying argument, you voted Lotus to not hit Iadon or the Exec sec more than because an elim might have the adjudicator role? That is a different argument from what you said, but now that I read it for the 27th or 28th time... It's not that adjudicators are not useful, it's that they are less useful than other roles. 

Don't let me put words in your mouth though. I'm not afraid of being wrong or offended when I am. 

2. I mean, I gave you Xinoehp didn't I?  I thought you were the spy!!! Vindication! Ah going to your computer is why you didn't have reasons in your vote post. I absolve you of that one.

3. I think you said it better when you said you didn't think Lotus was an elim, but you  didn't not think that either. 

4. Not to cause chaos? spoilsport . There is a pattern there huh? By all means play how you like. 

33 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

On the contrary, it takes a useful tool out of Elim hands. The ability to negate the lynch, the villages main way of taking out elims, is powerful. And so I feel like it would be in the Village's best interests to either protect Lotus from the elims, by swapping her role. Or protecting the lynch from the Elims, by taking away their ability to manipulate it. So again, I ask King Iadon to swap someone's roles with Lotus.

 

*sighs* This feels like the new Poke Voting. Something I dislike, but don't want to take up time arguing about. Perhaps you being lynched...it isn't a curse, but a reality. You get lynched because you're claiming to be the enemy of the majority of players. Just saying

But see, I think PMs can be as useful a tool as a singular lynch. Especially if we get them early on in the game. 

Claiming elim is the new poke voting? I disagree. If I claim elim I may get a little information based on who is looking for excuses to lynch someone. However, that information is slow moving and frequently no better than circumstancial. It also requires an almost intimate knowledge of each other's playstyles. Some people (as evidenced) don't like the playstyle and will vote Gears out for even considering the playstyle. Of course It worked in a recent game where we caught Vapor for jumping on Gears, so it definitely can be a useful source of information, but it is definitely of the wide-net variety. Whereas when I poke someone, I demand a timely answer that could fluster or trip them up in their words. It's very much fishing with a spear, but the information I find tends to be more focused and I don't have to do as much cleaning to get to the meat.

25 minutes ago, Butt Ad Venture said:

*nods* You see, I'm trying to understand why people like Poke Voting. I've never liked it, but I'm trying it out this game, as well as trying to vote each cycle, to break a worse habit of never voting ever. I just don't see any benefits to claiming to be elim while village. It only harms the majority. And the Village's most powerful tool is the power of majority.

I really appreciate you trying it my way. If it's not to your liking, then by all means go back to yours. I am a fan of voting and lynching.

22 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Yeah, that's basically the discussion we had the last game. It's always in Gear's best interests in the long run, but not for the majority, and this is a Team game. 
You can also say that for all the more chaotic players, which is why when in doubt I have no qualms with killing them.

Speaking of- Elkanah, you've been seemingly awfully lawful good so far imo, what's up with that?

That is a fair call about the claiming elim playstyle, but chaos is waayyy more fun! If I can keep the elims guessing, it takes away their best tool. Their plan. You remember how sacred to me my plan was back in the cultist game?

*puts on my best angel face* I don't know what you're talking about  Lenkai has realized that with law comes order and what is gooder than order?

20 minutes ago, Gears said:

Your strategy is acceptable. It depends on many unconfirmable factors, but it will suffice. Lotus, I release you. 

I personally don't like poke voting either. Just tag the person and be done with it. I know this strategy is probably awful. It will take more games to convince the meta that claiming elim is NAI. However, it seems to be working, since many players have accepted it as a part of my playstyle. There is a risk of it becoming synonymous with my villagerness. Perhaps I should add a random element to my claims. 75% of the time, I'll claim elim. The rest, I won't claim at all. This requires some thought... Most of the votes on me are actually because of my mishandling of the Lotus case, which I find entirely justified.

I shall withhold my vote until a better target reveals itself. If I am still the frontrunner by rollover, I will vote in the interests of self-preservation.

[Wow, I was ninja'd a lot. Perhaps many of my statements were invalidated. Perhaps not. I am going to hit post and see what carnage has been wrought.]

16 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This makes absolutely no sense to me. Absolutely no sense. no sense. none.

Gears
Lotus

I'm with you on this one. Except your vote. which you agree is weird. But you don't change it back . . . .

 

Thank Goodness that's done. Now to decide what it all means