Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Quinn, it’s mostly just the phrasing for me in absolutes. Elims will do XYZ or won’t do XYZ instead of something like you’ve seen it more often with one team. Idk it’s not that big of a deal I just have a gut reaction against those kinds of phrasing because I’ve specifically used that as an elim to do things that “elims won’t do”. 

I phrase in absolutes because I've literally been C1-misexed for not doing so, and also because it's just exhausting and a waste of space to qualify every single statement I make. Also, (like I said in the original post,) if any assumptions I've made are proven wrong I will readjust every conclusion I made off of them. 

[Mailliw73 he/him]

6 minutes ago, Tani said:

Quinn said there was an elim in our group.

You agreed and said you'd be looking more closely at all of us.

Y’known what, you’re right. I apologize for that, I misremembered that because of the context. Stick mentioned that it would suck for our plan if Illwei survived the kill and in response to that, Quinn said that there was an elim directing the group and she’d look at me. I took that to mean that if Illwei survived, then she’d think that. Not that she already thought there was an elim. But she’ll have to clarify what she meant but now I see why you interpreted it that way. I agreed to it in the way I understood it. 

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

I phrase in absolutes because I've literally been C1-misexed for not doing so, and also because it's just exhausting and a waste of space to qualify every single statement I make. Also, (like I said in the original post,) if any assumptions I've made are proven wrong I will readjust every conclusion I made off of them. 

That’s fair. Like i said, just a gut reaction and a general warning to people that elims will do whatever. (Especially the chaotic players in this bunch). 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

12 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Your main objection to my analysis at this point seems to be that I assume certain behaviors to be elim indicative, even though you've seen villagers do those things too, right?

Not quite. It more has to do with the statements like "elims won't do X". And my main objection is that elims will do X, precisely to take advantage of village assumptions. Basically the same thing Mailliw is saying.

With regards to what you find suspicious about me, I think you are sort of forcing my behavior into a box that fits what you consider an elim profile, when I haven't actually done what you describe. I'm not sure I've done a great job of contributing to the discussion this game (largely due to RL stuff), but what I have given is an honest attempt to find elims.

[Stick. she/her]

Here’s an idea: someone make a group PM with everyone currently alive, excluding the four of us, and discuss this turn’s exe to exert vengeance  

(joking) 

((but also, do it if you want to :P))

34 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

I took that to mean that if Illwei survived, then she’d think that.

Yeah that’s how I interpreted it too

[---]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Yeah that’s how I interpreted it too

Well here I am, having technically survived :eyes;

I've decided that that ISO of Maill is all I'm doing this cycle. Maybe more. Expect no more. but maybe there'll be. who knows.

Edited March 6, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

I somehow only grabbed two quotes for my post here from the part of the thread I haven't read yet. That means a lot of the discussion there went over my head :P. If you want my input on something I missed @ me.

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

[1] And this seems very opposite to what Tani has done so far in this game? I'm finding it difficult to think of reasons why a new player who rolled village!Mistborn is going around mass claiming, tbh. That's Mailliw and Quinn separately, then together with Stick in the group, then to Illwei, then to Matrim? That's..too much to overlook. I would have expected the complete opposite i.e. reserved about role and paranoid about trust. I would like to vote them out this cycle, but I think asking out Seeker to scan them would be better, in case they are actually telling the truth but it causes IKYK about elim!Smoker hiding village!Mistborn!Tani, so I'd like input on this from everyone. If you are reading them as village, why?

[2] Gear's post does NOT help my suspicion on him. He spends time saying something that is obvious (or should be) and then proceeds to say that he'd be willing to kill everyone and anyone, which isn't entirely helpful.

[3] I find Ashbringer's vote on TUO last cycle very suspicious by the way. And the fact that it stayed there till the end of the cycle as well. Don't get the Stick or Illwei grinch, don't want to enlarge Mailliw's lead just yet, cause that makes players hesitate to come up with alternate trains like what happened last cycle. Would vote for Tani, but as I said, I wanna know your thoughts first. Ashbringer

[1] I don't exactly agree with the reasoning against the claim itself- I don't find that super strange and it just boils down to a difference in personality rather than alignment imo. And Tani has said she's a Dustbringer  

The scanning seems smart though- @Seekers, consider scanning Tani this cycle- if she shows up as Reg Vil we'll know something's up. Though there's always the IKYK of if the elim!Smoker will smoke Tani just for confusion . 

*Realizes you already said that*

I'm reading them as village because of the claim tbh. A very tentative village, but still village.

[2] Just putting here I generally agree with the Gears suspicion. It started for me about the Maill/Gears possible connection that Illwei mentioned- yes, I'm shamelessly trusting most of that iso until I have a reason not to- but the other points on Gears stand true as well.

[3] I... don't, really :P. Ash just poking someone there doesn't seem too out of character for him. I'd mark it as NAI.

---

For this section, I'm writing directly on the quote in bold. Note I'm commenting as if they're proven right, which they're not.

3 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Conclusions (this section assumes that the assumptions I've made are correct. If any of them are proven wrong later on I'll adjust my conclusions accordingly):

Maill/Illwei not e/e Agree, reading this e/v
Maill/Tani not e/e Same as above
Maill/Biplet not e/e Same as above
Maill/Fifth not e/e Same as above
Maill/TUO not e/e Same as above
Matrim/Tani not e/e This one is v/e or v/v- going with the latter for now.
Biplet/Illwei not e/e I'm thinking this is v/v
Araris/Ash not e/e Hmmm I think this is e/v

One (and only one) of [Maill, Illwei, Biplet] is elim. Of these, Maill
At least one of [Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Ash] is elim. Of these, Araris
At least one of [Gears, Stick, Ash, Devotary, TJ] is elim. Of these, Gears- maybe Devo if we're talking to paranoid!Mat
At least one of [Araris, Stick] is elim. Tbh I'd put both
At least one of [Araris, Illwei, Devotary, TJ] is elim. Araris (Maybe Devo again)
At least one (probably more) of [Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Fifth, Tani, Stick] is elim. Maill, Stick. Possible Supreme.

Araris is elim (started the vote on Reading, voted on Ash but then started the vote on Pyro as soon as the Ash train lost steam). Can concurr- something else I remember about Araris from D2 that I'll go look for.
Ash is village (I don't think Ash is elim with Araris, only stands if Araris is actually evil and aside from that he didn't self-pres on Striker when he had the chance; instead he voted on TUO, whom he suspected). Also not AI, so while I think Ash is likely village it's not because of this reasoning.
Reading is village (Araris started the train on him) Only valid if Araris is evil, so I don't exactly agree here.

Matrim is elim (this is a bit more tentative, but... well, look. Matrim has voted exactly one person this entire game So? (Plus, now it's three), and expressed strong suspicion of exactly one person this entire game Not true, and that person flipped village. And then Mat didn't really... stop and reconsider, exactly? Then you weren't paying attention- let's reiterate. I though Striker was evil, and made connections to construct a whole elim team prediction. When Striker flipped vil that shattered that and I literally reconsidered everything. Like, if you're a villager and you're tunneling hard enough on someone that they're the only person you ever have a vote on for the first two cycles, then you're gonna need to do some pretty serious rethinking once they flip village, right? Yep. I did. And I don't recall really seeing that from Mat. Last Night the only two suspicions he mentioned were on Tani and Maill.) Those didn't change after Striker's flip- they're the only ones. A lot of my rethinking I didn't put in thread. But it happened. And again, how is any of that AI?

Tani is village (again, tentatively, because it's partially dependent on Mat. How so? But also... just, new-player vibes? idk, I get that some people think she's sus for the whole claiming thing, but can you really see elim!her doing that without asking her team first? And can you really see her team saying that's a good idea? Technically, yes. Since it wasn't even her idea to Coinshot Illwei in the first place, and the rest of us approved XP, if one of us had outed her to the thread she would have had that as a response. It just seems like genuine newness to think that you have to claim over a single badly-targeted vig kill.) I do agree here.

Maill is elim. I'm incredibly unsure about this one, but I tried to write out reasons why I think he's village and then realized I had none except that Matrim is voting him. Lol And honestly, I might even have kept him down as village anyway were it not for one really... kind of strange exchange I had with him last Night? I mentioned that I was looking at final VCs and that from them I'd concluded that Stick was sus because she was sheeping the final trains. This is not, in fact, what was happening (if you look at the progression of votes) but I didn't realize that at the time because I'd only just started my analysis, and when I mentioned it to Maill he kind of... seized on it? Like, sort of overeagerly, if that makes sense. Told me like three times in the same 4-sentence-ish PM message that it was interesting or useful or something like that : P the tone felt super off to me, and that combined with his general... openness to me, Tani, and Stick, which seems to me now to have been kind of arbitrary since he claimed to us D1 or beginning of D2 and since then he hasn't real-claimed to anyone else (that I know of), whereas he's told us about a few other people he fake-claimed to. So... hmmm this is making me less sure about my elim-read on Matrim. Then again, he was the most recent person to vote for Maill so that could very well be distancing. No
This means--and I'm fairly certain about all five of these if Maill is elim, particularly the first three--that Illwei, Tani, Biplet, Fifth, and TUO are village. On all that, I can't comment as it's about a PM exchange. That's a different reason to why everyone else is voting Maill, though.

So that leaves me with Gears, Dannex, Elandera, TJ, Devo, Burnt, STINK, Stick, and Daisy as the pool from which to draw the remaining three elims. Or 4 elims, if I think Matrim is village Assume that. (Tani would be village if either Maill or Matrim is elim, so nobody else's alignment thus far is dependent on Matrim's alone.) Maill's flip would clear/condemn Tani in my eyes, then? According to you.

Of these, I know nothing about Daisy, and honestly I doubt we're going to find anything out about her any time soon, either. She might be a good Coinshot target, just so we don't have to waste a cycle's vote figuring out whether the person who's never said anything is elim. Was there no activity filter?

I haven't the faintest idea about STINK theoretically, but also he's actually had some decent, if short and unelaborated, points... so leaning away from him as elim. 

Dannex hasn't really said much since D1, when he voted me... notably seems to be keeping a low profile, which is somewhat unusual for him but also he could be busy. So, leaning elim but he's not at the top of my list-of-people-to-exe. He hasn't made any controversial ideas... elim tell? :eyes:

Windrunner... I'm gonna just mark them village tbh. No reason for that. Idk if this is really the best idea and by going for precision I'm definitely sacrificing some amount of accuracy, but they haven't... voted elimmy, They've made one vote total on a person you have marked as unsure elim. and haven't been acted much different than normal (which is to say, they haven't been acting much at all) so I'll just go with it here. Inactivity is NAI

TJ just posted and made an incredibly valid point about Gears--that he's basically been stating the obvious all game--so I might lean towards Gears being elim. <-This Unfortunately, I'm also currently leaning elim on TJ for being the last vote on a long train in both cycles <-Not this... but he was elim in the QF so I can definitely understand v!him here not being able to keep up very well. Speaking of that- based on how I saw elim!TJ acting, I think he's different in this game. That's totally meta but I'm going with it :P.

I'm leaning away from Devo being elim because she's doing what is apparently normal for her (voting last-minute). Of course, she did that in LG73 (when she was elim) as well. So I guess it's literally NAI for her but I have to narrow this down somehow. NAI is still NAI Quinn.

Burnt and Elandera I have legitimately no idea. Stick I should have an idea but I don't, so I'll go with elim because they've voted every cycle and I've talked to them a lot and I still have legitimately no idea, which seems wrong to me. Not a fan of how you got to the read, but I agree with it :P.

So. People I think are most likely to be elims:

Araris, Agree(ish) Matrim Hard no, Maill Agree, Stick Agree generally, TJ Disagree, Gears Agree(ish), Dannex Probably not, and possibly one of the near-inactives/nulls (Daisy, Burnt, Elandera) I'd be surprised if the entire team was active.

People I think are less likely to be elims: Everyone else.

If I had to guess an elim team of 6 right now, I'd say Araris/Maill/Stick/Gears/Dannex/Daisy, but obviously that's mostly just randomly picked from my list so I don't expect it to be right. Interesting you didn't stick me in there.

Apart from my suspicion on Maill for the reasons listed above, I kind of need to know his alignment before I can pursue a lot of the rest of this analysis with any degree of certainty. I would also be perfectly fine voting Matrim or Araris this turn though, since my reads on them have nothing to do with Maill. Noting that a whole lot of your reads are dependant on Araris too.

My team prediction would be

Maill/Stick/Araris/Gears/[Supreme/OtherInactive]/VillageTrustBecauseThat'sHowThisGameWorks

Order of confidence is Most - Least.

Not sure how I feel about that Quinn post tbh. A lot of the analysis feels very dependent and I don't like that. But this is from the guy who literally had an entire suspect list based off one assumed elim :P. So take that with a massive grain of salt.

Edit:

I think this is the vote count:

• Illwei (2): Burnt Spaghetti, Mailliw73
• Mailliw73 (5): Tani, Illwei, The Windrunner Supreme, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential
• Quintessential (1): Araris Valerian
• Ashbringer (2): TJ Shade, _Stick_

Edited March 6, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Quintessential she/her]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Those didn't change after Striker's flip- they're the only ones. A lot of my rethinking I didn't put in thread. But it happened. And again, how is any of that AI?

Okay actually fair point : P (this is in response to... basically everything you said in regards to you). tbh I guess it just... it feels off, but you are by no means highest on my suspect list and also you and Maill being e/e... doesn't work so well, unless the team decided to bus him this cycle or something XD (so that's the answer to your question about why I'm not including you both in my full-team guess)

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

only stands if Araris is actually evil 

Right, that's the bit where I'm assuming everything I previously concluded to be true. I did warn you

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

On all that, I can't comment as it's about a PM exchange. That's a different reason to why everyone else is voting Maill, though.

I'm not voting Maill because I think his flipping elim will clear five people (or at least that's not the primary reason). : P

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Maill's flip would clear/condemn Tani in my eyes, then? According to you.

At this point, I'm assuming that Tani is vil anyway(edit: reading Tani vil, whatever. phrasing is annoying. why do I bother.)--after I made that post, Elandera called Tani out for the Mistborn claim being elimmy, and I started writing up why I thought it was vil and then realized that Tani is... basically acting the way I did in MR46. New-player-with-important-role-gets-in-over-her-head-in-PMs-and-messes-up, kinda? It's not the exact same thing but... idk. That's my independent reason to read Tani vil. But then yes, there's also the relationship with Maill.

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 Was there no activity filter?

There was not; I went back and checked.

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Speaking of that- based on how I saw elim!TJ acting, I think he's different in this game. That's totally meta but I'm going with it :P.

 you were elim in that game XD so unless you're elim again....

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

NAI is still NAI Quinn.

*sigh* ik ik... I just didn't want to have 10 people in my list--which I'm now realizing is only 4 more people than are probably in the actual team okay nvm I'm broadening that list somewhat:

Araris, Maill, Stick, Gears, Dannex, Matrim, TJ, Daisy, Burnt, Elandera, Windrunner, Devo.

There, that's probably better : P

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Noting that a whole lot of your reads are dependant on Araris too.

My reads on Ash and Reading are dependent on Araris. That's two reads, as compared to five. 

Don't yell at me for reconsidering Matrim so easily. As I wrote the stuff about him I was realizing that some of it might not... actually... be accurate... idk. Anyway. Matrim wasn't exactly priority on the list of sus people anyway.

(should I be worried that you agree with a good half of the things I said? xD)

Edited March 6, 2021 by Quintessential

[Mat he/him]

Replying-in-bold thing again. I like doing that, it turns out...

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I'm not voting Maill because I think his flipping elim will clear five people (or at least that's not the primary reason). : P Then what is?

At this point, I'm assuming that Tani is vil anyway--after I made that post, Elandera called Tani out for the Mistborn claim being elimmy, and I started writing up why I thought it was vil and then realized that Tani is... basically acting the way I did in MR46. New-player-with-important-role-gets-in-over-her-head-in-PMs-and-messes-up, kinda? It's not the exact same thing but... idk. That's my independent reason to read Tani vil. But then yes, there's also the relationship with Maill. As I GMd MR46, I can affirm this is a fair enough reason  

My reads on Ash and Reading are dependent on Araris. That's two reads, as compared to five. Alright, fair.

Don't yell at me for reconsidering Matrim so easily. As I wrote the stuff about him I was realizing that some of it might not... actually... be accurate... idk. Anyway. Matrim wasn't exactly priority on the list of sus people anyway. *raises hand* I won't yell at you for reconsidering Matrim

(should I be worried that you agree with a good half of the things I said? xD) I'm worried that I agree with a good half of the things you said, so... probably? xD

 

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Then what is?

...did you read the whole paragraph I had about Maill? Combination of tone and the fact that Maill claimed to me, Stick, and Tani after like 1 cycle as his village trusts and then false-claimed to everyone else thereafter? Like, if he was willing to claim to us three after one cycle, then why wouldn't he be willing to claim to like... Bard for example, who he told us he relatively trusted later on? (so, PM reasons except I'm actually explaining them lol)

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

 I'm worried that I agree with a good half of the things you said, so... probably? xD

Well, I mean, you and Illwei have the whole "mindmeld=v/v" thing going, right? Why couldn't that be a thing with us too?  but yeah, now I feel like you're trying to pocket me by agreeing and if so it's definitely working

[Araris Valerian he/him]

"Now hold on just a moment young miss!" Arenta glared across the street at Tesse, who had just finished accusing Arenta and several of her tenants of being Spiked. "For starters, there aren't any spiked in this here town. Why in the Lord Ruler's name would someone stab themselves with a spike? No, what we have here is just common people making common trouble. False accusations and misinformation is the game they're playing. And I think it's just possible you might be mixed up in it as well!" Arenta jabbed a bony finger at Tessa before continuing.

"On a totally unrelated note, I believe you are behind on the payments for your shop." Arenta fished around in her pack for a ledger and began leafing through it. After a few moments she glared at the paper, and then back at Tessa. "Hmph. Guess you are caught up after all." After a moment's hard think, a smile touched the corner of Arenta's lips. "Of course, you did just admit to consorting with Marl, Sunny, and Daux on tpoics including the discussion of Allomatic abilities and the ruthless murder of one of my... less reliable tenants." She rooted in her bag for a rumpled form and gestured to the text on it. "According to this here, you owe me an additional 10% on your rent, effective retroactively, plus you've inherited an equal share of Shard's debt, which was quite substantial." The smile broadened into a crooked, slightly sinister grin. "You now owe an additional 47 boxings and 7 clips. Perhaps you should consider paying more respect to your elders, especially when you're indebted to them by this much."

With that said, Arenta began to head back home as fast as her old bones could handle.

[---]

12 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

I'm not voting Maill because I think his flipping elim will clear five people (or at least that's not the primary reason). : P

...wat?

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

...did you read the whole paragraph I had about Maill? Combination of tone and the fact that Maill claimed to me, Stick, and Tani after like 1 cycle as his village trusts and then false-claimed to everyone else thereafter? Like, if he was willing to claim to us three after one cycle, then why wouldn't he be willing to claim to like... Bard for example, who he told us he relatively trusted later on? (so, PM reasons except I'm actually explaining them lol)

Sorry, I assumed the part I quoted there was the reasoning... brain a bit mushed today  

5 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Well, I mean, you and Illwei have the whole "mindmeld=v/v" thing going, right? Why couldn't that be a thing with us too?  but yeah, now I feel like you're trying to pocket me by agreeing and if so it's definitely working

I point you to QF51 :P. But I guess that's your point.

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

...wat?

Allow me to rephrase (yes I realize that phrasing is confusing : P):

The reason I'm voting Maill is not that I think it'll clear five people if he flips elim (or at least it isn't the primary reason)

[Mailliw73 he/him]

This is most likely my last substantial post of the turn since I've got some homework that needs to get done and then we have plans tonight and then I'll be sleeping till rollover.

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Now, Fallion's Four (yes, I'm calling you that, it's the Shadesmar Eight of this game, deal with it :P), please give your reads on every other member of the group (not just like vote placement suspicions, but everything as a whole) [ @Mailliw73 @Quintessential @Tani @_Stick_ ]

Current trust of Fallion's Four:  Quinn >= Stick > Maill > Tani

Honestly, I think Stick has a point. The more I think about this, the more it feels like a bunch of villagers getting together and then falling apart from miscommunications. I think I've gotten frustrated with the whole scenario and I'm kinda sensing the same from Quinn. Stick has kinda thrown up her hands from what I can tell. So I'm going to back out of this whole thing for now. Illwei. There you go, first greened vote from me. I don't trust myself to accurately evaluate the complications between Illwei, Quinn, Tani, Stick, and I, so I'm going to back off any suspicions there for now. I'll let a Seeker scan Illwei before I try to go there again... 

If I had to pick one of the four in the PM I'd suspect, it'd be Quinn then Tani then Stick. But like I said, I'm not going to move on anything there for a little while (assuming I don't just die here, which isn't looking likely) because I feel like it very well could be just villagers messing up.  

3 hours ago, Quintessential said:

Maill is elim. I'm incredibly unsure about this one, but I tried to write out reasons why I think he's village and then realized I had none except that Matrim is voting him. And honestly, I might even have kept him down as village anyway were it not for one really... kind of strange exchange I had with him last Night? I mentioned that I was looking at final VCs and that from them I'd concluded that Stick was sus because she was sheeping the final trains. This is not, in fact, what was happening (if you look at the progression of votes) but I didn't realize that at the time because I'd only just started my analysis, and when I mentioned it to Maill he kind of... seized on it? Like, sort of overeagerly, if that makes sense. Told me like three times in the same 4-sentence-ish PM message that it was interesting or useful or something like that : P the tone felt super off to me, and that combined with his general... openness to me, Tani, and Stick, which seems to me now to have been kind of arbitrary since he claimed to us D1 or beginning of D2 and since then he hasn't real-claimed to anyone else (that I know of), whereas he's told us about a few other people he fake-claimed to. So... hmmm this is making me less sure about my elim-read on Matrim. Then again, he was the most recent person to vote for Maill so that could very well be distancing.
This means--and I'm fairly certain about all five of these if Maill is elim, particularly the first three--that Illwei, Tani, Biplet, Fifth, and TUO are village. 

Bolded the things I want to address. Sounds like you don't have any real reason to suspect me either though from that first line, so I don't understand how I went from you writing that post and wanting to put me as village to then becoming your number one suspicion. I think I'm just missing something there. 

The strange exchange you mention is because that was the moment I suspected you most. I didn't know how to respond, except that I genuinely did find it interesting (and my vote analysis is only based on final votes, not progression) but I also felt like you were trying to sow more distrust, so I agreed with you to avoid you coming after me. 

Again, my openness is just a style thing. I play pretty open, even if I lie about my role or something, I'm usually pretty honest about everything else. I don't get how being open is anything suspicious, I've always been a proponent of the idea that more information helps the village more than the elims, so I do my part to encourage and help with that. Also, why my flip is tied to five of your other reads, I don't get... I just have PMs with a lot of people. Also, just saw the recent message about me claiming to you on D1 and then falseclaiming after that. I claimed to almsot everyone that I PMd on D1. That's kinda a thing for me and I typically claim at least 3 different things. I do it to gauge reactions. But I pick which ones I'm willing to real claim to and which ones I'm not and that's how I decide. It's not that thought out, honestly. 

3 hours ago, Elandera said:

Reads for now:

  Hide contents

Matrim's Dice: Mild village

Gears: Neutral (can never read them)

Quinn: Mild elim

Fifth: Mild village

Reading: Neutral

Araris: Mild village

Dannex: Neutral

Ashbringer: Neutral to mild elim

TJ Shade: Village

Illwei: Mild elim

Devotary: Neutral

Mailliw: Mild elim to neutral

TUO: Neutral

Windrunner: Neutral

Burnt Spaghetti: Neutral

STINK: Village

Stick: Mild elim to neutral

Biplet: Milid village

Daisy: Neutral

Tani: Mild elim to elim

I'll return later today once I've had some food and a mental break.]

So all your elim reads are everyone involved in the Fallion's Four Illwei Kill and then Ash?

2 hours ago, Tani said:

 Also Maill is scary.

Just want to note, this is the second or third time that you've said this and I still don't understand why. I'm scary because people suspect me? Like what makes me scary? All I've seen from you is just following Quinn's reads and beign against me because of this "scariness". 

@Matrim's Dice I also thought it was weird that you referenced Quinn's post and then agreed with the entire first half... but looks like you've already realized that while I was typing this. 

Anyways, final thoughts about the day (except maybe a couple brief posts will come later?):

Quinn, Tani, Stick, and Illwei are people I'm not going to go after anymore because I'm getting too invested in this idea and it's become frustrating, I think there's a chance we're all village, and I don't trust myself to do an objective analysis. 

There's clearly a difference in how I play versus how a lot of others do (which has always been the case), I think it's noteworthy that not a player I've played with before has a vote on me, but only players who haven't interacted with me before. Generational difference? Just a playstyle difference that hasn't been around or gotten used to yet? Idk, but there's something that's causing a problem. 

This took way too long... I honestly don't even want to vote, but I don't want to die. I'll see if there's another option later if I get a chance. Farewell if I die, O7 ( I liked that salute, Bip. )

[Stick. she/her]

8 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Honestly, I think Stick has a point. The more I think about this, the more it feels like a bunch of villagers getting together and then falling apart from miscommunications. I think I've gotten frustrated with the whole scenario and I'm kinda sensing the same from Quinn. Stick has kinda thrown up her hands from what I can tell.

yus

I feel like we put up a good show for the elims xD

[Quintessential she/her]

11 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Honestly, I think Stick has a point. The more I think about this, the more it feels like a bunch of villagers getting together and then falling apart from miscommunications. I think I've gotten frustrated with the whole scenario and I'm kinda sensing the same from Quinn.

Sorta ig. idk, I feel like there's gotta be something we can get from the whole thing, given that it's been basically the topic this cycle. But... I'm just not sure what. 

*is already doubting everything I decided on in that analysis*

er

VC:
Illwei (1): Burnt
Maill (5): Tani, Illwei, Windrunner, Matrim, Quinn
Quinn (1): Araris
Ash (2): TJ, Stick

Great, so the only person in that count that I'm even a little bit sus of is Maill at this point. And idek about Maill anymoreeee why is this so hard ;-; 

Maill Araris

Hmmmm... 

yeah idk at this point. I'm tired (who am I kidding I've been tired all day, no wonder my analysis was awful) and probably even if I weren't I'd have no clue what to do here. 

Whatever, I can always change it later : P

[Elandera she/her]

Quinn

Kas

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I find Ashbringer's vote on TUO last cycle very suspicious by the way. And the fact that it stayed there till the end of the cycle as well. Don't get the Stick or Illwei grinch, don't want to enlarge Mailliw's lead just yet, cause that makes players hesitate to come up with alternate trains like what happened last cycle. Would vote for Tani, but as I said, I wanna know your thoughts first. Ashbringer 

... huh?

The three main vote trains D2 were Me, Striker, and Pyro. I was quite adamant that I didn't want to vote Striker, because I read him Village (both from his reactions in thread D1/D2 and a PM he sent asking me if I was [ROLE] because (assumedly as a Vanillage) he wasn't suspicious enough of me to vote me out if I was [ROLE]).

I didn't want to vote Pyro because I had a nearly entirely null read on them, and never really got why people were voting for them besides being generally inactive. And in hindsight, the reasons were 1) gut from D1 (Araris), 2) None Given (Illwei), 3) alternate Self-Pres (Striker), 4) ACTUAL listed reasons (Devotary), and 5) "felt weird he shaded Elandera right after her first OOC post about not OOC posting, and shading me" (that would be you, TJ).

I really didn't want to vote out me, for some reason.

So, I voted for someone I found suspicious even if they weren't one of the main trains. Because that's what I do. That's what... a lot of people do.

So how is that supposed to be suspicious?

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Yup - I think village!Ash probably would've voted for self-pres like both Striker and Pyro did, whereas elims!Ash can rely on their teammates to lead the exe away from them. Ash for now

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

I also disagree with your reasoning on Ashbringer, in fact I read him as elim for the exact same reasoning you gave. Not voting in self-preservation is a very good way of earning village cred, and I think there's a chance he's done this here. Why would a villager not self-preserve when they know only their alignment with 100% certainty? He claimed he read Striker as village, then why didn't he vote on Pyro to save him? You say he voted on his suspicion who was...TUO? And the vote looked more like a poke? Like "Hey TUO, what are your thoughts?" That's what I meant in the original post when as I said it was suspicious that he left the vote on TUO at EoD. Elims actually have a reason to not self-press if they know a teammate is going to save them, as they get village cred. 

... you know you can get Village credit as a Villager, right?

I had done essentially nothing for the first few cycles, because I flat out didn't have time, and honestly I really wanted to write as Derrick instead of try to analyze 25 different people, a third of which I've played with once or never before. Striker was being active, forcing discussion, and his mistakes didn't make sense from an Elim perspective. In other words, being a whole lot more helpful than little old me. 

Also, yeah, I wanted to hear more from TUO. Because they had been doing a lot of small, under-the-radar posts. That seems to be their MO, maybe, but they did it as an Elim in LG73 and it worked well until they kept 'forgetting' to do the action they promised. So I wanted to hear more from them, and voted them as an alternate train to Striker because I didn't have time to figure out where all the one-votes came from. (Pyro train didn't exist at this point.)

So yeah, a bit of a poke vote, to see if my vague impression changed based on what they said. Problem is, TUO didn't post at all for the rest of the turn. So... yeah, not exactly the best way to get a poke vote off of yourself.

 

Also, if my "Elim teammates" saved me, I think it would be fairly obvious who it would be. Here's a bit of the vote counts Quinn collected (thank you) from D2 (because we obviously haven't seen enough of those today ). Purple is Confirmed Village from death, Bold means they voted on me. I won't Blue myself because that's mostly irrelevant to my point (for now)... well, actually it's kind of the opposite of my point 

Before my main Defense Post:

Spoiler

Striker (3): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill
Ash (5): Bard, Stick, Quinn, Striker, Araris
Tani (1): Illwei
Illwei (1): Tani
Quinn (1): Ash 

Vote on Quinn from me was a bit of a joke/poke for reasoning, honestly. Thought it was weird she agreed that it was exhausting to keep up while busy and then voted me for not analyzing, but her later distinction made sense. I... do RP much more often than analyze  but that's besides the main point. The people who voted on me are Bard and Striker (both Confirmed Village), then Quinn, Stick, and Araris.

After my TUO Vote:

Spoiler

Striker (3): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill
Ash (4): Bard, Stick, Striker, Araris
Illwei (2): Tani, Quinn
Araris (2): Illwei, XP
Gears (1): TJ
TUO (1): Ash

Not much here. Quinn moves to Illwei. I move to TUO. I didn't really want to vote either Illwei or Araris or Gears. Hence the TUO vote. Continuing.

End of Day:

Spoiler

Striker (8): Matrim, Windrunner, Maill, Quinn, Fifth, Tani, Pyro, Stick
Ash (1): Bard
TUO (1): Ash
Pyro (5): Araris, Illwei, Striker, Devotary, TJ
Maill (1): XP

TL:DR, there were at most 5 votes on me: Bard, Stick, Quinn, Striker, and Araris. Of these, Bard and Striker are both dead and Village. Araris moved over to Pyro; Quinn and Stick moved over to Striker. Meanwhile, Fifth Scholar and Tani moved to Striker never being on me. I'm discounting Mat, Windrunner, and Mailliw because they were on Striker since the beginning.

So, lets assume TJ's right, and I avoided self-presing because I knew my Elim friends would save me. Well, here are my Elim friends. Araris, Quinn, Stick, Fifth, and Tani. 

But you may say, Ash! Wait a moment! These people can't all be Eliminators, it wouldn't make any sense! So let's narrow it down.

Quinn, Stick, and Tani (together with Mailliw) form the Fallion Four. They do things. Mainly their thing was deciding to kill Striker. Mailliw claims it didn't have anything to do with me, specifically, but that's a grain of salt and a half... but I can't believe they're actually the Elim team as that would likely fall apart. So, I'll go with only one of these was an Elim, maybe two. I don't think Tani is, as claiming Mistborn D3 is bold... and I'd be very jealous of a new player getting Elim!Mistborn  not that I'm one to talk. Plus, just gut. Maill's getting voted out as of now... I gut read (past tense) him bad but I'd have to check why, and he did have a fair point in that most of us don't really know how to gut read players we've never seen before. So if I had to guess, Quinn or Stick, leaning Stick for reasons I'll get to later.

(This is why the whole Faillion Four thing makes me nervous; not only does it feel shady, it also looks like what Elims do, which makes it hard to figure out where the Elims are... or in other words it makes it real easy for an Elim to pocket en masse )

Araris explicitly stated their vote on me was based on a good read of Striker and not a bad read of me. They then moved to Pyro once they got a better read on me. I don't know if it's Elim, but there's much simpler ways to save me than creating a whole new train. Plus I read them village.

Fifth sticks out, somewhat. Partially because Striker got a VC wrong and stuck his vote on me when it was on him. Fifth thought the train onto me was weird and voted Striker for that; a reason, if a vague one.

 

So, if anyone moved to save me, it was Araris, Quinn, Stick, Fifth, and/or Tani, with me personally thinking the group is Stick and/or Fifth and/or maybe-Quinn. Possible Elim teammates, possible Elims without me being Elim.

So... if you think the swing off of me is weird, why not start there?

 

(Plus... you know, I'm village. I know that. Take it with a grain of salt, but it makes sense. But a weird swing off of me is not necessarily dependent on my alignment. If I'm village and telling the truth, then all the major D2 trains were on villagers which means the Elims do what they want.)

Got to go on a walk, will be back.

[---]

wait

Wyrm

...

whoa that's a long post from ash

pog

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

... you know you can get Village credit as a Villager, right?

there's a difference between a) doing things as a villager because you're a villager and either 1) trying to find other villagers or 2) trying to find the Elims, and b). doing things specifically to get village credit imo.

I'm village reading Ash rn so? /shrug

[Stick. she/her]

7 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

TL:DR, there were at most 5 votes on me: Bard, Stick, Quinn, Striker, and Araris. Of these, Bard and Striker are both dead and Village. Araris moved over to Pyro; Quinn and Stick moved over to Striker. Meanwhile, Fifth Scholar and Tani moved to Striker never being on me. I'm discounting Mat, Windrunner, and Mailliw because they were on Striker since the beginning.

So, lets assume TJ's right, and I avoided self-presing because I knew my Elim friends would save me. Well, here are my Elim friends. Araris, Quinn, Stick, Fifth, and Tani. 

I would include the people that voted on Pyro in this list too (Devo, TJ, illwei) - we know that Pyro was a villager, so dumping votes on him could also be elim teammates attempting to save elim!Ash. To the elims it wouldnt have made much of a difference whether Pyro or Striker got exe'd as long as it meant they'd save a teammate.

[Biplet she/her]

35 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Farewell if I die, O7 ( I liked that salute, Bip. )

Glad I could be of service.

Apologies for lack of contribution to the thread today. Quite a bit of homework still left to do, but I'm making my way through it. I'll hopefully have some thoughts later tonight.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

19 hours ago, Illwei said:

I'm not a huge fan of this, tbh. Maybe you think you have a group of 4 people you can trust, but that doesn't mean that our opinions shouldn't matter? I would understand it if it had another purpose, like baiting something else, or like...I could probably think of reasons if I tried.

but 4 of you coordinating to kill striker can definitely control the thread, and who we vote out should be a discussion from all of us- I could go on a small rant here but I don't really want to :P. 4 people coordinating can really control the thread, especially when they're not worried about being seen as connected to each other.

Add onto that that I'm not a fan of anyone planning the grinch in advance :P. And it sure seems like that's what you four did :P.

So long as they didn't try to get people outside of the PM group to join with Striker, this doesn't seem too different from sharing suspicions in PMs. I don't think it's a good idea to vote on someone just because your PM group agreed and the person getting voted on deserves to have the reasons for that consensus addressed in thread, but this isn't the same thing as a PM group saying 'X is evil, everyone go vote for them'. Probably more of the problem is the 'we'll vote for Striker no matter what even if there's a decent chance he's village' thing.

19 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

I'll make this clearer hopefully because there's a lot of questions about this. I started a group PM with Tani, Stick, and Quinn. I had already claimed my role to all of them (which, no, I'm not claiming here. ) , Tani had already claimed Mistborn to Quinn and I and told us she had Steel and asked who she should kill. I made the group because at the time, they were three of my highest village reads and I had already claimed, so I wanted to start to bounce ideas and suspicions off of stuff in a group.

Why were Tani, Stick, and Quin your top village reads? Stick especially had been one of your suspicions for vote placement as of the beginning of D2 with gut village. Quinn you'd suggested D1 that you would be okay if she died and didn't fully retract and Tani you already knew her role when you claimed?

18 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yes, those four. Though yesterday only my ones with Tani and Quinn were active. I heard about the plan to kill Illwei from... Illwei... and preferred a kill on Maill or Exp- that I told Tani after she claimed to me. I talked with Illwei about it and we both sorta came up with Exp, but Maill would have been my first choice. Since Quinn didn't want to kill Maill I guess Exp was sorta the compromise. Like I said though I had slight-meta read Exp village but I didn't know how reliable that was.

So Illwei preferred XP over any other kill? They did mention a bad feeling about XP during the D2 vote and tried to vote XP today, but voted for Araris and then Pyro D2 which could have been higher priorities for her.

For all the vote count things, it does tend to be true that elims will split their vote, including no-votes, especially if they aren't desperate to defend a teammate. That doesn't mean that people who cast unimportant votes either because all options are the same alignment or because the outcome is also concluded by the time the vote is cast are more or less likely to be evil.

57 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I would include the people that voted on Pyro in this list too (Devo, TJ, illwei) - we know that Pyro was a villager, so dumping votes on him could also be elim teammates attempting to save elim!Ash. To the elims it wouldnt have made much of a difference whether Pyro or Striker got exe'd as long as it meant they'd save a teammate.

An attempt to save elim Ash would have happened well before the Pyro wagon started. The vote count was 7-3 Striker-Ash when Illwei voted Pyro, and then after Striker switched from Ash to Pyro, Ash was no longer the main alternative to Striker.

[---]

6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

tried to vote XP today

:|

[STINK he/him]

Ngl I'm at this point where my vibes are not feeling good still 'bout the four that have a name that I can't quite remember rn

Not only that but I'm hearing Quinn is mad active in PMs and stuff yet I got a solid 3 words from them before I guess my value to them wore out so

Cheers to the other 3 for having at least like 10 PMs

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

Ngl I'm at this point where my vibes are not feeling good still 'bout the four that have a name that I can't quite remember rn

The Fallion Four or something like that XD

2 minutes ago, STINK said:

Not only that but I'm hearing Quinn is mad active in PMs and stuff yet I got a solid 3 words from them before I guess my value to them wore out so

Sorry? I mean, it's not like we ever rly talk in PMs... and the last time we did (in LG72) you used them to inform me that I was evil and deserved to be exed (which happened and I definitely did not deserve it) so like... sure ig? XD