Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[StrikerEZ he/him]

16 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Smokers make people show as vanilla villager.

I mean...yes, I know. But it shouldn't be too hard to figure out if someone is actually a vanilla villager or not. And you're more likely than not to scan someone correctly than incorrectly. There's probably...2, maybe 3 smokers in the game. Your odds of hitting anyone that's been smoked are only 3/14. Obviously the odds increase as players die, but smokers are just as likely to die as anyone else in the game.

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I meant contradictory in that you were using the length of the game with 6 elims (8 cycles) as a reason to think it's a larger team, but with coinshot kills every cycle the time it would take for them to win would be lessened, thus making a 6 person team more likely.

I mean...they were two separate thoughts. My guesses for the elim team don't take into account roles. And even accounting for roles, it's not like a coinshot's kills are only going to affect the village negatively. They can hit elims too. And I'm not advocating for coinshots to kill randomly. I'm saying that if they have suspicions, no matter how small they are, they should go for them. It's how I've operated any time I've had a kill or a scan or something like that. Waiting around for the right opportunity to use a kill helps no one because you could be dead by the time you were planning to use it, and the village (assuming coinshots would only be village) would lose out on their kill.

28 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

Striker's post does seem suspicious to me, but it seems almost too suspicious to be made by an elim. As an elim, if you want to suggest a bad plan it shouldn't be discovered in minutes, but his post had enough bad ideas and fallacious reasoning that he should've known that at least one would be caught instantly.

I mean...it could just be that I made my post in a rush and was mostly just trying to get discussion out there and get people talking. Which, look: I succeeded.

17 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I do agree with the reasoning, but encouraging the coinshot to kill N1 is kinda useless because how much interaction could you really even get within one cycle? I think the coinshot shouldn't kill until N2 unless theyve got some solid suspicions

Eh, agree to disagree. I don't think it's useless to avoid killing N1. The elims aren't going to avoid it, so why should we? Even if the odds of hitting an elim are low, they're not 0. There's still a 21-25% chance (slightly higher because someone should be dead by the end of today) that you'll hit an elim. And coinshots should be going for people they think could be an elim. People that have been doing stuff in thread that people can get reads off of when they flip. No matter what, any coinshot kill gives information to the village, which is the most valuable resource the village gets in a game.

Also, I meant to quote more of Mat's big post from last page in response to me, but I was rushing and forgot to. I have to go now, but someone remind me to go back and respond to some of his points from that post later. Don't want to risk this post by going back a page.

[Flyingbooks]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean...yes, I know. But it shouldn't be too hard to figure out if someone is actually a vanilla villager or not. And you're more likely than not to scan someone correctly than incorrectly. There's probably...2, maybe 3 smokers in the game. Your odds of hitting anyone that's been smoked are only 3/14. Obviously the odds increase as players die, but smokers are just as likely to die as anyone else in the game.

If there's an elim Smoker (which I think is pretty likely), they'lll scan as a normal villager for the entire game, plus they'll also protect some of their fellow elims as well. They have a zero percent chance of dying to an elim kill because they're elims plus if people trusted their scans of them they probably wouldn't be coinshot-killed or executed either, so they'd die at a much lower rate than any other role. If somebody registers as an elim or as a non-vanilla villager then the scan should be trusted, but all vanilla villager scans should be taken with a grain of salt because they could likely be elims.

[---]

Smh. there's role claiming going on and it's not to me? This is how you all got killed last game, smh :P.

39 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

An early D1 train is always great to analyse in hindsight after an elim or two have been outed in some way  Good content

As long as people don't stick with it, and then get to Rollover and then end up thunderdoming Striker and someone else because - sgh. anyways-

40 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

FlyingBooks - they have posted once so far and it was solely to jump in and defend Gears. Nothing wrong with what they said - just something I'm going to be thinking about  

Defending Gears is a pretty standard tradition about now... :P.

41 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

But... why would a villager post anything that they know has bad ideas or fallacious reasoning? Except as a reaction test, and I don't think that's what that was  just because something doesn't seem like an elim thing to do doesn't mean that it is a villager thing to do. 

I-

Quinn

this is bad reasoning. therefore you must be an Elim. :P.

--

welcome to bad reads with Illwei, the show where we...idk. Badly read people.

22 minutes ago, Gears said:

Stop ninja'ing me! Your top sneaky ways are too much for my shoddy perception!

I like this line. Locktown.

Spoiler

54 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

Striker's post does seem suspicious to me, but it seems almost too suspicious to be made by an elim. As an elim, if you want to suggest a bad plan it shouldn't be discovered in minutes, but his post had enough bad ideas and fallacious reasoning that he should've known that at least one would be caught instantly.

this whole thing. Locktown.

Spoiler

11 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

If there's an elim Smoker (which I think is pretty likely), they'lll scan as a normal villager for the entire game, plus they'll also protect some of their fellow elims as well. They have a zero percent chance of dying to an elim kill because they're elims plus if people trusted their scans of them they probably wouldn't be coinshot-killed or executed either, so they'd die at a much lower rate than any other role. If somebody registers as an elim or as a non-vanilla villager then the scan should be trusted, but all vanilla villager scans should be taken with a grain of salt because they could likely be elims.

............mmmmmmmmmmmm

Spoiler

54 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I was gonna vote on you for this until I realised you're a new player xD so some hesitation in voting is warranted  I think everybody else should definitely vote or at least voice their opinions regarding any suspicions 

mmmmmmmmmmmMMMMmmm

--

Quinn

Stick

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Quinn

Stick

What happened to Stick being locktown?  

[---]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

What happened to Stick being locktown?  

Maybe she still is :ph34r;

[Quintessential she/her]

Striker

Illwei

This is purely gut. Like, completely 100%. But I can't remember v!Illwei ever joking that I was elim (like "oh, isn't it too bad you rolled elim this game" or "Quinn please stop bussing me" or stuff like that), whereas she did it in the MR and she just did it to me now in PMs. 

[Stick. she/her]

34 minutes ago, Gears said:

Most of it was [about 80%]. I wrote some last night but didn't finish it, and then I got the PM and finished it up, along with some touch-up to get 1600 words exactly. The RP was pre-written though.

The timestamps say you posted 5 minutes after the thread started, so this checks out

34 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

 I don't think it's useless to avoid killing N1.

Wait so...you agree?  

jk I getchu 

36 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

slightly higher because someone should be dead by the end of today

You assume it's gonna be a villager 

28 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

If there's an elim Smoker (which I think is pretty likely)

I think this is a dangerous assumption to make because I'm p sure I've been falsely lynched in the past just for being a smoker lol sometimes the GMs be sneaky and straight up do not give the elim team any Smokers at all.

17 minutes ago, Illwei said:

mmmmmmmmmmmMMMMmmm

--

Quinn

Stick

mmmmMMMmmm

FlyingBooks

Because of your hesitation to provide a firm stance on Striker plus the stuff about the smokers just seems like an elim planting a seed of suspicion for later against seekers coming up with vanilla village. Apologies if that seems like a stretch or too nit-picky, but it's D1 and I gotta do what I gotta do  Might change vote if someone more suspicious appears

 

[danex he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I think this is a dangerous assumption to make because I'm p sure I've been falsely lynched in the past just for being a smoker lol sometimes the GMs be sneaky and straight up do not give the elim team any Smokers at all.

I would be very surprised if the Elims don't have a smoker, it seems like a very Elim-oriented role. How would a Vill smoker even use the role? Copperclouding other players seems like it would be generally a bad idea for a Vill smoker, am I wrong?

[---]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

I think this is a dangerous assumption to make because I'm p sure I've been falsely lynched in the past just for being a smoker lol sometimes the GMs be sneaky and straight up do not give the elim team any Smokers at all.

Or because the Elim smokers claim Vanilla Villager? :P.

Btw kinda unrelated, if anyone claims Vanilla Villager I will have no hesitation in killing you :P.

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Might change vote if someone more suspicious appears

I'm not doing a good enough job? ;-;

1 minute ago, Dannex said:

I would be very surprised if the Elims don't have a smoker, it seems like a very Elim-oriented role. How would a Vill smoker even use the role? Copperclouding other players seems like it would be generally a bad idea for a Vill smoker, am I wrong?

Honestly my thought? the only reason I can see village smokers being useful is in some sorta balance that I'm too tired to speculate about rn :P.

 

my dog has been howling at the top of the stairs for the past hour I both am incredibly annoyed at him and feeling bad for him.
this is the now-toothless dog.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Dannex said:

I would be very surprised if the Elims don't have a smoker, it seems like a very Elim-oriented role. How would a Vill smoker even use the role? Copperclouding other players seems like it would be generally a bad idea for a Vill smoker, am I wrong?

You're forgetting that it avoids vote-manip, and that if the elims have a Seeker they'll be likely to target anyone who comes up as anything other than Regular Village.

Also, assumptions about distro were what caused the village to all but lose QF50 : P shouldn't we have learned from that? though then again we obviously haven't learned from the ties in LG72 XD

[StrikerEZ he/him]

44 minutes ago, Flyingbooks said:

If there's an elim Smoker (which I think is pretty likely), they'lll scan as a normal villager for the entire game, plus they'll also protect some of their fellow elims as well. They have a zero percent chance of dying to an elim kill because they're elims plus if people trusted their scans of them they probably wouldn't be coinshot-killed or executed either, so they'd die at a much lower rate than any other role. If somebody registers as an elim or as a non-vanilla villager then the scan should be trusted, but all vanilla villager scans should be taken with a grain of salt because they could likely be elims.

(This is the last post from page 2 I saw before testing if I could keep this quote and go back to page 1. Not gonna risk losing all of this by going back to page 2 ) 

I mean, yeah. I was gonna say that. The only time Seekers need to worry is when they scan someone as vanilla villager. Otherwise, they know for sure that their scans are good (or evil ).

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Other thing I disagree with about Striker's post: His vote on Gears, who posts analysis like that every game and has done so without fail for a very long time. I detected no difference and it looks to me like another vote on Gears for something entirely NAI which is a... trend.

I mean...if it’s a trend...what’s it a trend of? (Hint: it’s a village trend for me)

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

StrikerEZ, for the vote, the coinshot point, and in a really weird way, the Seeker point. The paranoid side of me wonders if it's set up for an elim to PM a villager claiming to be a Seeker who scanned them. But the one thing I don't want is a repeat of the last LG where I voted Striker immediately after his first post, so this is pretty tentative and I'm watching to see if there will be more or if it's more of a general difference in playstyles.

I mean, you vote on me and say you don’t want to vote on me anyway. Which is it, Mat?

Also how do we keep ending up in this dance on D1 Mat?

[STINK he/him]

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

mmmmMMMmmm

thats what people say when they eat your cake right?

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Also how do we keep ending up in this dance on D1 Mat?

Okay, well I've learned my lesson even if you haven't. Staying out of it this time XD

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean...if it’s a trend...what’s it a trend of? (Hint: it’s a village trend for me)

A trend of voting Gears D1 for NAI stuff. Happens every game.

3 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I mean, you vote on me and say you don’t want to vote on me anyway. Which is it, Mat?

Also how do we keep ending up in this dance on D1 Mat?

What I don't want to repeat is my immediate misexe  

And that.

[danex he/him]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

You're forgetting that it avoids vote-manip, and that if the elims have a Seeker they'll be likely to target anyone who comes up as anything other than Regular Village.

Isn't the vote-manip cancelling a passive attribute? Like, as long as the coppercloud is active, all vote manip is cancelled no matter who is in the coppercloud? Or does the smoker have to actually target the vote-manipers?

If we have a Vill smoker, I think you should keep your personal coppercloud up the whole time, but don't extend it to any other players, unless you are 100% sure they are Village.

[---]

wait i think i don't understand how smokers work

[Flyingbooks]

7 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Because of your hesitation to provide a firm stance on Striker plus the stuff about the smokers just seems like an elim planting a seed of suspicion for later against seekers coming up with vanilla village. Apologies if that seems like a stretch or too nit-picky, but it's D1 and I gotta do what I gotta do  Might change vote if someone more suspicious appears

• I don't have a firm stance on Striker because I'm confused by his first post, which felt on the very edge TWTBAW to me, though I am leaning a bit towards him being village
• I'm not trying to plant suspicion against seekers at all. I never even said a single thing about the allignment of seekers. Maybe you're thinking of Smokers? In that case, I'm not suggesting that all Smokers are elims. I just think that we should assume that there's at least one elim smoker because it's better to be too cautious than careless

[Shard of Reading he/him]

4 minutes ago, Dannex said:

If we have a Vill smoker, I think you should keep your personal coppercloud up the whole time, but don't extend it to any other players, unless you are 100% sure they are Village.

Personally, I disagree with this, because I'd rather have a seeker be able to confirm a villager instead of avoiding vote manip. Because if you are voting on a elim, the odds that you specifically going to be vote maniped is rather slim.

[danex he/him]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

wait i think i don't understand how smokers work

I'm not sure I do either

Here's all the info we have on them.

Quote

Smoker: The Smoker shows up as a regular Villager and he can extend this power to one other person each night. If scanned by a Seeker, the Smoker or the person encompassed within his coppercloud will show up as regular Villagers. Alternatively, the Smoker can turn his coppercloud off. This would allow them to be scanned. In addition, the Smoker and his target are unaffected by emotional Allomancy. As long as the Smoker is using their coppercloud, the Soother and Rioter cannot change their votes.

• Do Smokers need to send in an order to Smoke?

Smokers begin the game with their Copperclouds switched on. There are three possibilities for a Smoker:

1. You want to Smoke someone else. If so, you must send in an order to me. This will result in both the Smoker and their target being Smoked.

2. You want to switch your Coppercloud off. If so, you must also send in an order to me.

3. You want you, and only you to remain Smoked. If so, you do not need to send in an order to me.
 

• Do Smokers get to send in an action every Turn?

No. Only at Night. This does mean that the Smokers will enter this game with an involuntary switched on Coppercloud D1 - in usual OG Tyrian, the game begins N0 so they could choose to switch it off then. But the Committee was concerned that it might be rough for a player to get NKed without even getting to play the game, and I agree with that assessment, so we are beginning on a Day. As a result, sorry to the Smokers, but your first chance to send in an order on Smoking will be N1.

Yeah I'm still kinda confused on how smokers interact with Soothers/Rioters. I guess only the smoker and the smoker's target are immune to vote manip. 

 

[---]

So the smoker is immune to vote manip

smoker's target would be immune as well?

but other than that

it does nothing?

how about we all just agree to be friends and not do vote manip

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Illwei said:

how about we all just agree to be friends and not do vote manip

Sorry, Illwei, but as the elim Rioter I can personally guarantee that that's not going to happen  

[danex he/him]

1 minute ago, Quintessential said:

Sorry, Illwei, but as the elim Rioter I can personally guarantee that that's not going to happen  

remembers the time Elim!Quinn told Elim!Me to put all my reads as perfectly accurate, just for the mind games.

................................Quinn

[---]

2 minutes ago, Quintessential said:

Sorry, Illwei, but as the elim Rioter I can personally guarantee that that's not going to happen  

no no see as the Elim Rioter you could also personally guarantee that that's going to happen, see! :P.

Edited February 26, 2021 by Illwei

[Quintessential she/her]

Just now, Dannex said:

remembers the time Elim!Quinn told Elim!Me to put all my reads as perfectly accurate, just for the mind games.

................................Quinn

Hah! I knew it! I knew you'd say that XD

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

no no see as the Elim Rioter you could also personally guarantee that that's going to happen, see!

Weellll but I really can't though 'cause I have my teammates to think of...

[Mailliw73 he/him]

Startled, Marll shot up awake. Something had happened, he could feel it. Had he heard something? He wasn't sure, but there was something left of his old instincts and they hadn't failed him yet. The old cobbler hadn't always been the storytelling cobbler of Fallion's Tears. He had always been a gambler though. he found something thrilling, exhilarating about the chance. You stood on the edge of a triumph or a tragedy and you never knew which was which until the dice settled and the pips showed your fate. It was a rush that Marll had felt in few other circumstances, but it was the thrill that he lived for. There was a joy, an excitement that made one feel truly alive and Marll loved being alive. The instincts that had pulled him through both failure and conquest alerted him now that there was something on edge in town.

Marll quickly put himself through the motions of getting ready. As quickly as he could at least. His joints hadn't taken well to life and his fingers hadn't taken well to cobbling, but he'd lived longer than plenty of skaa did anyways. Smelling a tinge of smoke and hearing distant shouts, Marll paced to the tavern. He ordered his regular potatoes and gravy for breakfast, but he held off on the ale; he still had a headache from his mug (or three) the night before and the tension in the air told him he'd need what clarity he could muster. Marll pulled out a coin and flipped it, muttering, "Ruler, I ask first. Spires, I wait till someone mentions it." The spires of Kredik Shaw glinted as the coin landed in his hand. Grunting, he sat to eat and primed his ears to listen to the mutters and gossip going around the room. A storm was building, he knew it. He'd felt the tension in the room before, when he was younger and storms were what he enjoyed most. Those days were past, but with Kast dead, there weren't likely to be many left in town ready to handle the mess that was going to follow here soon. Death begets death. Marll knew that all too well. Oh did he know that. But enough of the past, the present was busy enough. 

Koloss were destructive, Marll knew, but the destruction of a people under paranoia's fervent grip could be just as complete. This town would fall to that insidious parasite if he didn't step up and help them get away from it early. "A people, long ago, longer than the Lord Ruler, found themselves in a tempest. This tempest was not one of winds or of debris, but one of words. The storm raged in their hearts as they harbored their petty grievances and boiled their discontent long past steaming. When one tea kettle finally erupted over, they all exploded promptly after, one then another, then all. Anger followed bitterness followed by rage and people under the influence of rage do things more akin to beasts than even a storm. Blood and ashes silhouetted the emotions inside and the skeletons outside. The tempest tossed, the steam spewed, and the town itself wept. That's why it's called Fallion's Tears, you know, and now we begin anew, figures going in circles."

Marll felt himself tugged into this new story again and he cried inside because his eyes had already seen the end and emptied themselves through the night. 
——

Wow three pages already, geez. I’ll post more tonight when I have more time, but a few thoughts for now. 

quick train on Striker. I’d be interested in the person who put the third vote on him, but I’m on mobile and not going to check that right now. 

Thanks Quinn for bringing up distribution. I agree with her! Guessing distribution is how the village got completely sidetracked from the elims in Kas’s first game and I know he is big on that. So I’m not going to assume much about the distribution and recommend not using that for major suspicions. 

Smokers can definitely be useful to the village. Like has been mentioned, they prevent elim vote manip from moving their votes, and also prevent elim seekers from finding their roles. 

Clarification on Smokers. They choose to turn off their copper cloud or to extend it to someone else as their action. Anyone covered by the copper cloud is immune from vote manipulation and will show up as a vanilla villager to a Seeker.