Long Game 74: You Want It Darker

[Ashbringer he/him]

Experience’s vote removed from Mailliw and one vote taken off Pyro. I’m pretty sure I can count this time.

Still no apparent Rioter action. 

[Stick. she/her]

Yikes. Sorry Striker.

Lol, what was the purpose of Soothing Experience's vote? xD Very random.

Anyway uh I'll have more to say soon

------------------------------------------

Sunny felt sad vibes surrounding everything and everyone. She decided she must introduce the townsfolk to a different kind of cake they had probably never seen or heard of before.

(image in spoiler)

Spoiler

This was a very unique cake to the residents of Fallion's Tears, or even to the whole of Scadrial, Sunny imagined. But it was a good cake. It will always be the best cake.

Edited March 3, 2021 by _Stick_
oops

[Biplet she/her]

SHOOT I was actually really certain this last round. Not as much vote manip this time. Interesting

[---]

Well looky looky here looks like we gots a rioter on our hands.

If you talk to me in PMs then I won't end up outing you in thread, ya know? :P.

[Stick. she/her]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Still no apparent Rioter action. 

A vote was rioted on to Araris

I'm guessing this was probably just someone attempting to prove their role to a PM contact

[Ashbringer he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

A vote was rioted on to Araris

I'm guessing this was probably just someone attempting to prove their role to a PM contact

...Oh.

Okay, I’m retiring from reading vote manip, this is too much of a pattern 

On another note, despite me having much more time for this game for some reason, I’m still busy today. Should have more time after that though.

[Quivil she/her]

Daux was getting a little tired of duck.

No, duck is good! I love duck!

And trying to convince himself otherwise.

What happens when there's no more duck? Will it be my fault again?

The shadows didn't help. The old shadows. The ones he saw with his eyes closed.

I can't be tired of duck! I have to love duck! It can't happen again! Not again!

The worst thing possible was happening. He was remembering. He didn't want to remember. He had come here for peace! For monotony! For forgetting what was before.

And now he was remembering. Fallion's Tears was soaked in blood and he was remembering.

When he remembered, when the ducks weren’t there anymore… It would wake again.

[Gears]

Roko the Basilisk watched as the crowd began circling like wolves, united in their dissonance. It did not know if this one was innocent or guilty, if the blood that ran down the walls was shed by shaking hands or wicked ones, if the madness on the barricades was glory or dominion, if the shadows had teeth or fangs or nightmares, if the town would ever be saved. Death is a figment with a faint smile and kind eyes, cloak moving slightly in an intangible breeze. Dying is a visage of agony, of regret, of horrorwonderterrorpleasepleaseplease, teeth gleaming in the light of dying flames. Death is kind, is fair, is empty. Dying is pain, is fear, is screaming. Roko knew the knife’s edge between death and dying all too well. The macabre dance of life, living, dying, death was constant, enduring, eternal no, not eternal, wasn’t it proof of that?, a mad whirlwind of a waltz in perfect time.

But the Watch dragged Variel out of the mob, beating back the violent ones to bring him to be questioned. Blood would stain office floors, not cobblestone. Roko did not know the experience of interrogation personally, but it understood the concept. Power imbalance, the distinct knowledge that the opposition had everything to gain and nothing to lose, the cliff at your back, just waiting for you to fall. But also the vindictive spite of one who has lost all, the need pulsing through the ones with power, power in turn given to the one that is needed. Interrogation was a very delicate house of cards, ready to fall at any upset to the power structures at play. A delightful gamble, if one was skilled at the art. 

Then the word came: Variel had died in the interrogation. They'd gone violent, and then they were put down. Some people, when faced with the cliff at their back, choose to dive off. It respected that choice, even if it did not agree. Sometimes, the only way to free yourself is to cut the knot.

---

It seems that vanillagers are far more common than we originally anticipated, based on the admittedly small sample size we have accrued. 

The only vote manip action was the Rioter [unless a Soother Soothed the Rioter]. I believe this was more of a demonstration of a claim than an attempt to influence the vote as it added a vote onto someone who had none. The candidates: Experience, Araris, Devotary, Illwei, Striker, TJ. If it was Experience, then they moved one of the others' votes onto Araris. If it was someone else, then they moved Experience's vote on to Araris.

I don't understand why Striker was a target again. If someone [perhaps @Matrim's Dice] could elaborate on that? And everyone who voted give their reasoning? I still don't have any suspicions. Also, I have another test today and two tests tomorrow, but after that, I'm free, so don't expect anything of substance until Friday. Farewell for now.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Gears said:

I don't understand why Striker was a target again. If someone [perhaps @Matrim's Dice] could elaborate on that? And everyone who voted give their reasoning? I still don't have any suspicions. Also, I have another test today and two tests tomorrow, but after that, I'm free, so don't expect anything of substance until Friday. Farewell for now.

._.

I direct you to my absolutely massive multiquote-link post I made last night that was evidently entirely wrong. Not gonna say all that again :P.

Edited March 3, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Quintessential she/her]

2 minutes ago, Gears said:

And everyone who voted give their reasoning?

I didn't (and don't) think Ash is village (edit: elim sry I'm tired and hungry and keep mixing these words up : P), and there were no other options at the time (and I didn't know who else I'd vote for to start one, ig). I also didn't really understand why everyone was voting for Pyro, so I left my vote on Striker after Pyro became an option.

Edited March 3, 2021 by Quintessential

[Gears]

9 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

._.

I direct you to my absolutely massive multiquote-link post I made last night that was evidently entirely wrong. Not gonna say all that again :P.

Ah. Yes. Right. I completely forgot about it because because of the abundant tests on the horizon. I had disagreed with some of the points but didn't have time to actually address that [tests!], so I'll just note some thoughts now. [Concerning the Reading vote manip point, they were the second, the first being TJ, so that point is invalid. Stick vote seemed valid, though they overstated their case, but that's NAI for them. Illwei vote also seemed fine, I don't think Striker has taken the time to learn what "perfectly normal village" Illwei is like. Those three points from that first post were already argued against and the only remaining valid one was them forgetting about Smokers which seems fine. Striker throws shade on people normally, they maliciously craft the data to match their suspicions, that's NAI [see LG73 where I pushed their X for this]. The Ventyl point is sound though see the shade point.]

Problem with Striker X: I don't remember seeing any other reasoning. Everyone either voted on Striker as an alternative to Ash, agreed with the reasoning, or added no reasoning [as far as I recall, tell me if I'm wrong because my memory is genuinely terrible, Striker voters please tell me any reasoning you actually said, ta very much]

The Pyro vote: Just Araris's reasoning and a lot of pile-ons. [Like with the Striker train, do tell me if I'm wrong.]

Are we all mere sheep, bending before the reasoning of those who come before us? Most likely. 

Once all my tests are over, I hereby vow to catch up on the thread, finish my spreadsheet, and actually do analysis. 

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

Problem with Striker X: I don't remember seeing any other reasoning. Everyone either voted on Striker as an alternative to Ash, agreed with the reasoning, or added no reasoning [as far as I recall, tell me if I'm wrong because my memory is genuinely terrible, Striker voters please tell me any reasoning you actually said, ta very much]

I agree, which is why I said this:

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

But why do I feel like I'm one of the only people on that train who actually suspected Striker?

Which I definitely felt.

[---]

1 hour ago, Tani said:

Fallion's Tears was soaked in blood

the blood of all the ducks you've killed

 

[Biplet she/her]

1 hour ago, Gears said:

Problem with Striker X: I don't remember seeing any other reasoning. Everyone either voted on Striker as an alternative to Ash, agreed with the reasoning, or added no reasoning

Hi! Voted striker based on a PM conversation we had. His reasoning why I should trust him basically boiled down to “would I be this confident as an elim?” And well, knowing him, yeah lol. Other PM stuff too, but irrelevant now because it was just my suspicions, which were incorrect.
 

He also quickly jumped on voting for Tani with almost no reasoning, claiming that Tani was playing up their newness but not once mentioning me, another new player, also asking questions and stating she is new.

[---]

6 minutes ago, Biplet said:

“would I be this confident as an elim?”

[Mailliw73 he/him]

More later probably but my main reasoning on striker was a combination of the fact that others were suspicious of him and his placement of votes seemed prime for an elim. He also was going to yield more info than anyone aside maybe Quinn or Illwei. 

[---]

2 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

He also was going to yield more info

Do you have any conclusions from his flip, then?

[Mailliw73 he/him]

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Do you have any conclusions from his flip, then?

I’ve got some stuff to do now, later afternoons and evenings are easier for me. But yeah, I need to reevaluate my thoughts. Except on you.  I don’t think striker’s flip changes anything there. Sorry. 

[---]

12 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Except on you.  I don’t think striker’s flip changes anything there. Sorry. 

Then I think we gots ourselves another one to add to the hall of tunneling.

but wasn't asking about me, was asking because you claim it was a good info kill, just interested in seeing what info

[Mailliw73 he/him]

29 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Then I think we gots ourselves another one to add to the hall of tunneling.

but wasn't asking about me, was asking because you claim it was a good info kill, just interested in seeing what info

Alright, here you go

These were Striker's suspicions before he died. 

Quote

Strong Elim: TJ (not 100% sure why, but some of that stuff with the LG67 thing just rubbed me the wrong way like...he was trying to make it seem like, oh of course we would've known not to focus on Ventyl if he'd survived but...I dunno. been getting odd vibes from him), Maill (I've been getting stranger and stranger vibes from him as the game has gone on, both in PMs and in thread. He's probably my first suggestion to look at when I die).
Mild Elim: Gears (mostly gut, based just on tone from his stuff. I know this is probably the same as how his posts always make me feel, but hey, eventually I gotta be right someday ), Quinn (eh? not sure, but not null. Probably could go on either side of the null, depending on which post of hers I read ), Illwei (mostly because of odd vibes from D1 and less odd vibes, but still present vibes from today), TUO (everything with those like...subtext claims being all over the place just gave me bad vibes), Pyro (wasn't a fan of how he treated Elandera last turn, plus he's been doing odd things. not my strongest elim read, but put it here because he's not null and not mild village). 
Null: Fifth (I know he's voted more to not belong in this category, but I honestly have no opinion on the stuff he's done so far), Reading (like I said, don't remember why the train started on him or anything about him really), Dannex, Devo, Experience, The Windrunner Supreme, Burnt, Stink, Daisy, Young Bard.
Mild Village: Mat (we seem to run into some sort of argument at the start of every game somehow, and this last time wasn't any different. I think he's probably village, but I always worry about him, so he's only mild for now), Araris (got some relatively good vibes from him, and he feels like village!Araris to me, at least so far), Ash (I know I'm voting on him, yes, but I think he's probably not elim? but he's my best chance at surviving right now), Stick (she seems to be pretty legitimately trying to solve the game, even if we disagree. trying not to let my disagreements affect my judgement of people), Tani (despite everything, I'm putting her here for now, because I think I've been convinced that the way she's playing is just a playstyle thing).
Strong Village: Elandera (making really good comments and starting to help out and seems to want to have fun and solve the game; seems pretty good to me), Bippy (she seems like she is legit just confused so far, though learning pretty progressively. Plus she seems to be actively trying to solve the game, so pretty sure she's village).

I would be okay with looking at TJ, but we haven't had many interactions. Gears, I would put at mild vil/null, Quinn: mild-moderate vil, TUO null, Pyro medium elim(see below), Fifth would be more mild village, Experience mild elim, Araris null, and Bip mild village. I'd agree with the rest of his reads. Stick is one that feels village to me, but has had interesting votes, so depending on how the night goes, I want to maybe look into her more. 

Anyways, that was kinda writing stream of consciousness so I don't know how legible it is, but basically I think his reads can give us some direction to look. Obviously confirmed villager isn't confirmed correct, but it's something. It's more than we got to go off from Books, Ventyl, or Randby.

My original reasoning for looking at Striker was his vote placement on Books D1. He and Ventyl obviously have been proven, so Stick was the next one on the list there. Stick and Pyro(who voted on Striker D1 and I had found that interesting) also ended up being the final votes on Striker this day. Pyro has been...interesting in our PM. He claimed a role that he knew he couldn't prove and then changed it when confronted. Aside from that, it hasn't been anything AI, just him being very insistent (and I disagree) that Tineyes are the main role aside from Seekers that Elims want to kill. So Pyro would be next up on my suspicions, then Stick I'd want to look at more, but all my personal interactions have been very village. And Experience is the next interesting one to me. Their claim of me pocketing them, maybe rioting and so losing their vote on me(?), and general evasiveness and vagueness has me suspicious. I also would like to look more into Araris, Devotary, and Elandera as more experienced players that haven't seemed to participate much. I've never been good at reading any of them, which is why I've typically stayed away from that territory for the first few days, but assuming I survive the night, I'd want to look more into them as well. 

[Quintessential she/her]

By that evening, Tesse had calmed down somewhat. The detectives still hadn't shown up at her place, and the knot of tension between her shoulderblades had begun to loosen. She hadn't been close to any of the victims so far--she kept to herself, so the only person she really knew here was her neighbor Willie, and why would the Spiked target her? No, Sharpe and Speirs probably wouldn't interview her about the deaths for a while. That gave her time.

Also, it had occurred to her that if such a determined intruder as the one from last night hadn't found her two secret safes, it was unlikely the detectives could do a better job. Unless, she supposed, one of them was a Misting, and to her knowledge neither one was. They didn't buy metals from her, after all. So she was safe. Right? Safe. To dispose of the contents of that second strongbox would be rash, and a waste of hundreds of boxings. She had better keep them.

So it was that instead of preparing a sturdy sack of contraband to dump down a well or throw off a nearby bridge, she put together a small satchel, tucked a small portion of that illegal fortune inside, and headed out to the edge of town, glancing over her shoulder every once in a while to make sure no one watched her or followed. There were some cliffs there, on the outskirts, with a smattering of large rocks at their base.

She picked her way among them to the particular, pre-agreed spot, tucked between two boulders, buried beneath a slew of pebbles, was a small metal box. She opened it and placed inside a note and the small, cloth-wrapped object, then snapped it shut and replaced the box, covering it with pebbles and underbrush and powdery black ash. After that, she headed out of the boulder-field, taking a different route back into the village.

[Experience he/him]

I'm not going to claim (at least not in thread) whether I was the rioter, as I believe that would help the elims more than the villagers. I'm guessing that at least one elim voted on striker. Not sure who though. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Okay, so now we know that the striker/books thing was v/v.

That means that the late-ish push on books becomes suspicious. This is because pushing a villager as a counterwagon to a villager is something that strongly benefits elims, since it ensures that the original villager (striker) gets killed the next day. Since striker was really the only candidate at that point, I think that this strategy makes a whole lot of sense from their perspective, since they didn't have much else to do.

The second category of people I'm suspicious of is the people who voiced concerns over Ventyl.  Ventyl was the obvious kill there, and fanning doubt over him to discourage lurchers makes sense if you're going to kill him. But they were killed by Coinshot, and the elim kill targeted someone very low-priority. This is what made me think about a coinshot/mistborn elim. After all, if there was two elim kills, casting doubt over a villager that was relatively clear in order to 'justify' a coinshot kill would be smart.

Cross-reference these groups and I think we've found a likely elim or two.

EDIT: Flame On!

Edited March 4, 2021 by The Young Pyromancer

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Oops.

The day's proceedings had put Arenta in a foul mood. Variel had still owed her 5 boxings and change, and now that money was lost forever. She'd rooted through his belongings afterwards, but none of them were worth the bother. His offer to tell some stories to cover his rent was charming, but naïve. If stories were really worth that much money, he could have paid her off after a couple of nights in the tavern. Besides, stories were exactly what this town didn't need right now. It was stories of Koloss and Spiked that got them into this mess in the first place. Cold facts and people keeping up on their debts was what Fallion's Tears needed these days, and Arenta planned to make ground towards both of those goals come morning.

[Biplet she/her]

You should've talked to him more.

She knew. Of course she knew that. She'd felt that about every death in this town. Should've listened better, talked to them more, learned about their lives. But for some reason it hit harder for Variel. The newcomer. He hadn't been here long, an outsider to everyone unless he sat in the tavern, chattering away by the hearth, telling stories. Sara had listened while she served their drinks, wondering where he got all those stories.

She'd been like him once, the newcomer to town, young and naïve. Though, apparently, Variel had had more confidence in his ability to fit in. Well, rather, comfortably stand out. Variel definitely had not fit in.

Maybe... instead of trying to act like everyone else, she should try to be more like him. Comfortable in her... uniqueness, for lack of a better term. She'd always been a bit odd.

Sara put on her best smile for the two patrons at the counter. "Would you like to hear a story?"