Quick Fix Game 54: The Smoking Mirror

[Kasimir he/him]

4 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Oh, wow, the rules for this one are really simple.

Sir, I promise you this is an extremely complicated QF and if it's not complex enough for you, you can ask my bro Wyrm for your money back 

[Steeldancer he/him]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Sir, I promise you this is an extremely complicated QF and if it's not complex enough for you, you can ask my bro Wyrm for your money back 

pff I can sneeze out a rule set more complex than this one. Even for a QF. 
Fortunately I don't want my money back, I'm fine with it being simple. Since I'm about to start GMing, complexity is not something I want. 

[Archer he/him]

I will not be voting in this game. (Unless the elims reach parity.) That’s one less village vote in play, but I hope to create a net increase in votes by encouraging the team to vote often and early. Expect me to @ you if you haven’t dropped some red text yet.

Steel, that poke has my approval

Rules Analysis

12/4=3. Even with the evil wincon being to outnumber, I can’t imagine they have anything other than three on their side. Gaming out the possibilities:

---Three elims with efficient win: D1: 9v;3e, D2: 7v;3e, D3: 5v;3e, D4: 3v;3e (not a win, but can hammer, so could end there or), D5: 2v;2e (again hammer and could win or), D6: 1v;1e (coinflip for winner). Basically, we must catch an elim in the first three cycles or we will have to win three RNG coinflips in a row, which is impractical.

---Three elims with one teammate killed: D1: 9v;3e, D2: 7v;3e, D3: 5v;3e, D4: 4v;2e, D5: 3v;2e (elims win with a mix or), D6: 2v;1e (village can win or a mix gives the elims a win)

---Four elims: D1: 8v;4e, D2: 6v;4e, D3:4v;4e (hammer and win or), D4:3v;3e (hammer and win or), D5:2v;2e (hammer and win or), D6: 1v;1e (coinflip for winner). This scenario forces us to catch an elim in the first two cycles, which is impractical.

---Three elims with no D1 exe: D1: 9v;3e, D2: 8v;3e, D3: 6v;3e, D4: 4v,3e (elims win on mix or no exe equals D5: 3v;3e and the village must win three coinflips or) D5: 3v;2e (mix equals elim win or no exe equals D6: 2v;2e and two coinflips or) D6: 2v;1e (you get the idea).

The most interesting part of the ruleset is the ability to forgo the exe. If we do that once and it just has the effect of skipping a village kill instead of helping us find and kill and elim, we’ll get to a round of 4v;3e instead of 5v;3e. Since getting the factions into a tie at any point make sit very difficult for us to win, I view it as a functional loss, and therefore those would be our final rounds where victory could be achieved.

The argument can be made that 4v;3e is more winnable for us because there’s less villagers available for the elims to mix, but if any of them are inactive, the hammer will be a challenge to deal with. I worry No Votes will be used as an excuse for complacency. If we skip the exe hoping to be able to analyze the NK, the elims will kill an inactive and we’ll have wasted time and resources. So my instinct is to plan for a 4v;3e scenario by making sure everyone is engaged and to never use the exe skip option. If there’s no threat of death every day, the elims will have no reason to worry. 

[Mat he/him]

Yeah I totally didn’t forget this game started today okay cool. This game has the same rule set as my first QF, aka none  

12 people I do think equates to 3 elims.

Araris

Edited July 16, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[Steeldancer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Archer said:

I will not be voting in this game. (Unless the elims reach parity.) That’s one less village vote in play, but I hope to create a net increase in votes by encouraging the team to vote often and early. Expect me to @ you if you haven’t dropped some red text yet.

Steel, that poke has my approval

Rules Analysis

12/4=3. Even with the evil wincon being to outnumber, I can’t imagine they have anything other than three on their side. Gaming out the possibilities:

---Three elims with efficient win: D1: 9v;3e, D2: 7v;3e, D3: 5v;3e, D4: 3v;3e (not a win, but can hammer, so could end there or), D5: 2v;2e (again hammer and could win or), D6: 1v;1e (coinflip for winner). Basically, we must catch an elim in the first three cycles or we will have to win three RNG coinflips in a row, which is impractical.

---Three elims with one teammate killed: D1: 9v;3e, D2: 7v;3e, D3: 5v;3e, D4: 4v;2e, D5: 3v;2e (elims win with a mix or), D6: 2v;1e (village can win or a mix gives the elims a win)

---Four elims: D1: 8v;4e, D2: 6v;4e, D3:4v;4e (hammer and win or), D4:3v;3e (hammer and win or), D5:2v;2e (hammer and win or), D6: 1v;1e (coinflip for winner). This scenario forces us to catch an elim in the first two cycles, which is impractical.

---Three elims with no D1 exe: D1: 9v;3e, D2: 8v;3e, D3: 6v;3e, D4: 4v,3e (elims win on mix or no exe equals D5: 3v;3e and the village must win three coinflips or) D5: 3v;2e (mix equals elim win or no exe equals D6: 2v;2e and two coinflips or) D6: 2v;1e (you get the idea).

The most interesting part of the ruleset is the ability to forgo the exe. If we do that once and it just has the effect of skipping a village kill instead of helping us find and kill and elim, we’ll get to a round of 4v;3e instead of 5v;3e. Since getting the factions into a tie at any point make sit very difficult for us to win, I view it as a functional loss, and therefore those would be our final rounds where victory could be achieved.

The argument can be made that 4v;3e is more winnable for us because there’s less villagers available for the elims to mix, but if any of them are inactive, the hammer will be a challenge to deal with. I worry No Votes will be used as an excuse for complacency. If we skip the exe hoping to be able to analyze the NK, the elims will kill an inactive and we’ll have wasted time and resources. So my instinct is to plan for a 4v;3e scenario by making sure everyone is engaged and to never use the exe skip option. If there’s no threat of death every day, the elims will have no reason to worry. 

Goodness gracious how did you get that much analysis out of like 2 sentences worth of rules. I know its actually just strategy, but still. 

[Archer he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Yeah I totally didn’t forget this game started today okay cool. This game has the same rule set as my first QF, aka none  

12 people I do think equates to 3 elims.

Araris

@Danex when Mat saw I wanted everyone to vote he edited in an Araris poke. Do you think that's him trying to avoid attention? 

2 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Goodness gracious how did you get that much analysis out of like 2 sentences worth of rules. I know its actually just strategy, but still. 

What do you mean, they're very complicated rules. The GM said so and the GM is always right 

(the ability to skip the exe is actually a cool feature that I've never played with, so there's that. I just probably won't use it) @The Unknown Order do you think casting a No Vote is a good idea? 

[Mat he/him]

15 minutes ago, Archer said:

@Danex when Mat saw I wanted everyone to vote he edited in an Araris poke. Do you think that's him trying to avoid attention?

Actually I voted you first but you ninja’d me so I switched it :P.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Guess I’ll start off on Liranil. Might switch if anyone seriously advocates for the “no kill” vote option.

[Aureole]

A painting found in a hollow tree, left behind by a soldier on watch. It is labelled "Long Live the King".

Spoiler

Forgive me if I failed to read the incredibly complex rules correctly, but where did the rules state that a dud vote was possible? I merely recall a no vote minimum and random ties.

All that I wished to state has already been covered by Archer, so I shall simply throw a random vote at someone. As Liranil already has a significant following, I hereby vote for StrikerEZ for not having an RP character.

I do not know anyone well enough to wish to reach out, but I would welcome being sought after in DMs.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Aureole

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

Hello everyone! I don't really have too much to say right now, but I guess I'll poke Devo @Devotary of Spontaneity, since they have neither posted nor been poked.

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Aureole said:

Forgive me if I failed to read the incredibly complex rules correctly, but where did the rules state that a dud vote was possible? I merely recall a no vote minimum and random ties.

Apparently I hallucinated extra rules. You appear to be correct, I can't find anything about No Votes anywhere in Kas' post. I blame the incredible complexity of the rules for messing me up. By the way, what's your preferred nickname? Olé? Aur? I'm not good with... vowels. 

Everyone who has posted has voted. My plan is working perfectly.

*

Jacques Noir knew how to survive in a jungle. He'd co-starred in a survival themed play called Le Jumanji once. "Oui, oui!" he exclaimed handsomely. "Le spies should be le mort, c'est la vie!" 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I see Liranil has two votes on her already and that two people thought there was a possibility to vote for no exe. I think Steel is evil because he hates cats and his poor teammate Liranil.

Bonfire Day Five:

Confirmation that Hallandren has agents placed within our company to prevent us from completing this mission. I'm choosing to see this as a positive for now. If these agents are willing to break their cover to sabotage our efforts, these dye fields indeed represent a great vulnerability, but the lack of an open assault means that we have not provoked Hallandren enough for them to declare war. Of course, the fact that people in Hallandren's employ know what we're planning means we could easily arrive at the dye fields only to walk into an army of Lifeless, even if we act now to prevent all outgoing communication. We'll have to keep everyone together and stay on the lookout for any Awakened constructs or animal Lifeless who could convey a message back to Hallandren. We can't even warn Idris that we've been compromised and that they need a backup plan if any one of us could be in the enemy's service.

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I see Liranil has two votes on her already and that two people thought there was a possibility to vote for no exe. I think Steel is evil because he hates cats and his poor teammate Liranil.

Bonfire Day Five:

Confirmation that Hallandren has agents placed within our company to prevent us from completing this mission. I'm choosing to see this as a positive for now. If these agents are willing to break their cover to sabotage our efforts, these dye fields indeed represent a great vulnerability, but the lack of an open assault means that we have not provoked Hallandren enough for them to declare war. Of course, the fact that people in Hallandren's employ know what we're planning means we could easily arrive at the dye fields only to walk into an army of Lifeless, even if we act now to prevent all outgoing communication. We'll have to keep everyone together and stay on the lookout for any Awakened constructs or animal Lifeless who could convey a message back to Hallandren. We can't even warn Idris that we've been compromised and that they need a backup plan if any one of us could be in the enemy's service.

Devo TUO (I think TUO hasn't been poked yet)

i will poke all the inactives :>

[Archer he/him]

20 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Bonfire Day Five:

Confirmation that Hallandren has agents placed within our company to prevent us from completing this mission. I'm choosing to see this as a positive for now. If these agents are willing to break their cover to sabotage our efforts, these dye fields indeed represent a great vulnerability, but the lack of an open assault means that we have not provoked Hallandren enough for them to declare war. Of course, the fact that people in Hallandren's employ know what we're planning means we could easily arrive at the dye fields only to walk into an army of Lifeless, even if we act now to prevent all outgoing communication. We'll have to keep everyone together and stay on the lookout for any Awakened constructs or animal Lifeless who could convey a message back to Hallandren. We can't even warn Idris that we've been compromised and that they need a backup plan if any one of us could be in the enemy's service.

As Gatemaker finished their speech, the five year old boy with sitting next to him at the bonfire finished swallowing his marshmallow, then burst into tears. 

"MUM SAID YOUF WOULD TELL GHOST SYORIES!"

*

[Thats non cannon, by the way.]

12 minutes ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

Devo TUO (I think TUO hasn't been poked yet)

i will poke all the inactives :>

That takes the teeth out of your poke votes, doesn't it? Wouldn't you agree @StrikerEZ

 

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

2 minutes ago, Archer said:

That takes the teeth out of your poke votes, doesn't it? Wouldn't you agree @StrikerEZ

Eh, it's better than nothing. Since we have so few players, we can't afford to have very many inactives. @The Unknown Order

[Ashbringer he/him]

Faleast burned brass.

He was still learning the intricacies of emotional allomancy, as he hadn't had much of an opportunity to use it back on Scadrial. Or at least, not... subtly. It was easy for him to overwhelm someone, but Soothing could be much more potent than that. Much more. 

Fortunately, Awakening couldn't break into a Hemalurgist's mind. At least with the skill that these Halladrians had. It was a potent system, one that he'd never really investigated, but AraRaash had filled him in on some details. Nalthis had... strange customs. More normal to Scadrial than Roshar's, but still mostly alien. Colors, a lot. Colors were important. He'd learned that.

Wait... how did AraRaash know more about Nalthis than he did?

Faleast's thoughts drifted. Ever since the Republic, since AraRaash's jaunt back through time. The darkened spike. He had some idea what it did, and it was useful... but it had changed things. Not much, but their path crossed those of many, and that led to a lot of differences over time. The end result, was AraRaash had different memories than Faleast did. And the kandra wasn't exactly sharing what had changed. It was possible he didn't know what had changed, but... neither of them seemed to want to talk about it. 

The spike was binding their souls together, but their minds weren't cooperating very well with that. Faleast still felt... more... angry. It was disconcerting. Hence the Soothing. Plus, it didn't hurt to Soothe the crowds a bit. It wouldn't help in the long run, but perhaps it could calm things in the moment.

Perhaps.

[The Unknown Order he/him]

Hello, so the consensus is three elims with a veeeeeerrrrry distant chance of four? 

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, The Unknown Order said:

Hello, so the consensus is three elims with a veeeeeerrrrry distant chance of four? 

I’d say there’s no chance whatsoever of four, but generally yeah 

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

2 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

Hello, so the consensus is three elims with a veeeeeerrrrry distant chance of four? 

TUO

awww there's no one left to poke :<

Edited July 17, 2021 by Szeth_Pancakes

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

awww there's no one left to poke :<

Poke, poke, poke, Stab! Kinda like duck, duck, goose, except the SE murder variety.

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

TUO

awww there's no one left to poke :<

I can't help but notice you're no longer voting for anyone! Might suggest Steel, who hates cats? Or perhaps Ashbringer who had only RPed?

Hey Ashbringer, it appears you too haven't voted. I hear Szeth has it out for you, have you anything to say about it? :P. 

4 hours ago, The Unknown Order said:

Hello, so the consensus is three elims with a veeeeeerrrrry distant chance of four? 

Would that change your approach? 

[Szeth_Pancakes he/him]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

I can't help but notice you're no longer voting for anyone! Might suggest Steel, who hates cats? Or perhaps Ashbringer who had only RPed?

Hey Ashbringer, it appears you too haven't voted. I hear Szeth has it out for you, have you anything to say about it? :P. 

Would that change your approach? 

Yeah, Ash. Anything to say about it? @Ashbringer

[Mat he/him]

Archer

Call me stereotypical. 

[Aureole]

9 hours ago, Archer said:

By the way, what's your preferred nickname? Olé? Aur? I'm not good with... vowels. 

Anything works. I've typically been called Auri on other platforms. Do what you want.

Some thoughts on the people that have existed so far.

Steeldancer: Stated confusion. Complimented Archer, which I note as a way to superficially gain trust. However, this site appears to be generally more relaxed than the mafia environments I've played with in the past, so think little of it.

Archer: Deep analysis. I find it interesting that the distro is unknown at the start, making speculation more prevalent, but I also note superfluous analysis. Also misread the incredibly complex rules somehow. 

Matrim's Dice: Concurs with 3 scum, votes. The first vote as a random one is reasonable, but the recent change seems odd.

Araris Valerian: A random vote. Nothing of note.

Szeth_Pancakes: Seemed invested in voting for inactives, which seems unproductive and somewhat pointless. Easily swayed by Archer, which is mildly concerning. Then again, the random vote stage is always a bit sporadic.

Devotary of Spontaneity: Random vote. Nothing of note.

Ashbringer: RP. Nothing of note.

The Unknown Order: An incorrect summary of opinions. Noted.

A banner hung up on the wall of the barracks:

Spoiler

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Aureole said:

Matrim's Dice: Concurs with 3 scum, votes. The first vote as a random one is reasonable, but the recent change seems odd.

It’s partly from PMs, for context.