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Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom


Steeldancer

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Time to get a new gem I guess. Not sure why the elims would have gone for one of the 7 people who could have possibly been Warform even before any PM information they had other than Lion making a N1 PM. @Chartreuse Penguin, would you have broken a tie yesterday had it come up?  @Oxblood Beagle, did Albatross getting themself killed make you want to save them?

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Me too, Lion. Caught myself before pushing submit though.

To me this reinforces my village read of Dragonfly though there always is WGG. Personally though since Dragonfly was already generally trusted, WGGing them doesn't seem to have much of a point so I'm sticking with village.

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3 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Me too, Lion. Caught myself before pushing submit though.

What is this me too referencing?

I will agree that the attack on Dragonfly mostly clears them. I feel like it would have been silly to waste a kill confirming someone who was already being strongly village read.

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Just now, Charcoal Hyena said:

What is this me too referencing?

White text and Oops Awards :P.

Also something to keep in mind- Dragonfly perhaps is a higher Mavset-im target further down the road. It's... definitely A Thing that we can't even trust the attacked/survived for long. Or maybe the elims will steer clear since we'll be watching, but there are infinite mind games so I have no idea.

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1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Also something to keep in mind- Dragonfly perhaps is a higher Mavset-im target further down the road. It's... definitely A Thing that we can't even trust the attacked/survived for long. Or maybe the elims will steer clear since we'll be watching, but there are infinite mind games so I have no idea.

That's a fair point. We could possibly counteract that be just always throwing Dragonfly into PM groups and just making sure they are always responding. So long as we have people that we trust put in those (so Dragonfly and whoever else we decide to soft clear as friendly) then we can keep people soft cleared. 

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1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Also something to keep in mind- Dragonfly perhaps is a higher Mavset-im target further down the road. It's... definitely A Thing that we can't even trust the attacked/survived for long. Or maybe the elims will steer clear since we'll be watching, but there are infinite mind games so I have no idea.

I'd say it's another reason I hold two seemingly-contradictory positions:

-Information will increase/leak over the course of this game. It can't be helped. Every PM we start essentially notifies other players of what our action was. This information can be traded and will likely appear in thread as players legitimately discuss suspicions, just like what happened with my N1 PM. This is a dimension I hadn't considered as strongly until I was looking at the warform/scholarform listings.

-PM safety is important. If you collect info or have a lot of PMs with many different players, you will be a prime Mavset-im target, if only because of the information you have, since I believe the account is handed over with PMs intact, and the PM history should not be expunged. I don't think it's the most critical thing, but it could be the last straw that helps an Elim team zoom in on the last scholarforms they'd like to take down, or warforms to avoid. (Assuming they didn't get those in the first place.) This is ignoring the catastrophic effect that considering a player trusted and therefore refusing to revise beliefs on them can have. I'd say we especially have to keep our reads flexible and continue to update our beliefs until we know Mavset-im is down for the count.

The good news is that because Dragonfly survived a kill, we know Mavset-im hasn't body-hopped yet. Otherwise, of necessity, the corpse would be written up as warform and there is no corpse. (Incidentally, if they do choose to use the unblockable kill on a warform, I think this would be telling. If a warform suddenly drops dead without any prior attack or lynch, we know it's Mavset-im.)

2 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

That's a fair point. We could possibly counteract that be just always throwing Dragonfly into PM groups and just making sure they are always responding. So long as we have people that we trust put in those (so Dragonfly and whoever else we decide to soft clear as friendly) then we can keep people soft cleared. 

If Mavset-im can read past PMs, then such PMs will be an informational goldmine. Not saying don't PM as that's a good tell, just saying be careful what goes in PMs, period.

5 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

White text and Oops Awards :P.

Can't spell shame without same, amirite mate :ph34r:

It was so bloody annoying I cannot even I had the Skittles text perfectly formatted waiting to go and then I almost hit submit and realised my pfp colour was wrong. Bloody hell... >>

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1 hour ago, Opal Lion said:

PM safety is important. If you collect info or have a lot of PMs with many different players, you will be a prime Mavset-im target

This could be a double-edged sword for Mavset-im, though. If they knowingly take over an account active in lots of PMs, they run the risk of being caught for suddenly not PMing. But I do wholeheartedly agree with PM safety here. Stay active in PMs, but don't reveal information you wouldn't want falling to Mavset-im in the event of the the players involved gets taken over.

For now, I'm going to vote Penguin again.

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On 7/25/2021 at 2:53 PM, Onyx Flamingo said:

For now, I'm going to vote Penguin again.

Can you (or someone else) clarify exactly why you're voting for Penguin?

Looking at the D1 count again-

Quote
  • Coral Swan (4): Opal Lion, Amethyst Scorpion, Onyx Flamingo, Magenta Albatross
  • Cream Tuatara (3): Emerald Falcon, Mint Heron, Azure Mouse
  • Chartreuse Penguin (2): Charcoal Hyena, Amber Vulture
  • Plum Rhinoceros (2): Melon Dingo, Coral Swan
  • Melon Dingo (2): Plum Rhinoceros, Ivory Dragonfly

And who voted, I can narrow down to a group I think holds an elim based on the assumption that at least one elim voted D1, which I think is fair.

Didn't green myself for everyone else's benefit but I'm village, and I'm taking out Dragonfly as well. Removing Vulture and Lion for village reads, and Dingo, Scorpion, and Hyena as slight village leans. Those three are a lot more flexible in their village status though.

That leaves Flamingo, Falcon, Heron, and Mouse. Respective reads are Null+, Null-, Null-, and Null, which maybe should have been expected. Adding Dingo, Scorp, and Hyena and the respective reads are Null++, Null+, and Slight vil. I'll probably vote within those seven, likely the first four, but I really don't know. That's simply considering who voted and my reads, and not how and where those votes landed. It's not the best way to pick an exe target, really, but it helped me think.

D2's count-

Quote
  • Magenta Albatross (3): Plum Rhinoceros, Opal Lion, Ivory Dragonfly
  • Chartreuse Penguin (2): Amber Vulture, Onyx Flamingo
  • Ivory Dragonfly (1): Amethyst Scorpion
  • Cream Tuatara (2): Mint Heron, Magenta Albatross
  • Oxblood Beagle (1): Oxblood Beagle

Sad that the Albatross train was v/v/v assuming no WGG and v!Lion.

If I do a similar narrow here it makes the pool of Flamingo, Heron, Beagle with Beagle being the only new addition. I do want to read Beagle's posts again. Their self vote does look like a Warform soft and it makes me wonder if it's also and elim attempting to make their exe look like a waste of one, while also providing an excuse for their continued survival.

Edited by Plum Rhinoceros
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15 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Can you (or someone else) clarify exactly why you're voting for Penguin?

My read from last turn:

Quote

They've made a few villagery points at the beginning, but their ambivalence to the exe last turn still seems weird. See my reason for voting them last turn.

At the point Penguin hadn't voted at all, but didn't move to break the tie between them and Albatross. That could have been an elim trying to avoid the suspicion of breaking against a villager, and preferring a tie where no one dies. Or giving a teammate enough time to break the tie for them.

I'm willing to vote on Falcon as well, as they were another elim read, but didn't feel a train in the first few hours of the turn would be super helpful. We need discussion more at this point than a solid exe.

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53 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Can you (or someone else) clarify exactly why you're voting for Penguin?

The reason I voted for Penguin day 1 was due to the tone of their posts. They were very indecisive. And it just had a weird tone to it that made them a possible Elim, to me at least.

That said their tone really hasn't changed at all, and I'm thinking that it is more likely than not just the style of play of that player, which is fine. 

Since Day 1 they haven't said much, besides a few filler posts agreeing with people, proposing a joke idea, or saying that they had no ideas.

To me it could be read as an Elim trying to keep a low profile while still being "active" but my gut is telling me it's not. 

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Emerald Falcon (1): Opal Lion

Chartreuse Penguin (1): Onyx Flamingo

Oh great. There's only two votes, and one of them is on me. I suppose I should vote on Scorpion, but I've cooled on that. Their post voting on Albatross was poor logic in my opinion, but poor logic doesn't mean evil player. In addition, Albatross was attacked last night, which feels too blatant if Scorpion was evil.

I think I'm going to vote for Plum Rhinoceros instead. They refuted Swan's vote a bit too vigorously, as if they were overcompensating. In addition, they've somehow slid into a position of trust due to their activity, but they don't have much to show for it.

Also, here's some mechanic questions.

Just to confirm, what happens when the conversion hits a player in Warform? I know the conversion is unlockable, but would the writeup tell us that someone in Warform died?

How do Mediation form and Work form interact? If a player with Mediation form is the only vote on a player in Work form, does the Work form player have 1 vote on them, or no votes?

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3 minutes ago, Emerald Falcon said:

I think I'm going to vote for Plum Rhinoceros instead. They refuted Swan's vote a bit too vigorously, as if they were overcompensating. In addition, they've somehow slid into a position of trust due to their activity, but they don't have much to show for it.

I don't even know what you're referencing here, if I'm being honest. And I wouldn't say I'm in a position of trust, I'm more just noted for my activity but hovering around the nulls for most people.

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8 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Scorp, given your views about Swan voters, I'm interested that you went for Dragonfly instead last Day. Why?

It was partly what I said, and partly the fact I didn't have a lot of time to go through the posts and see who else felt that way. I haven't been spending a lot of time analyzing.  

What's your reasoning on Emerald?  Just trying to get them to discuss, or is there a read on them as possible Elim too?

I'm curious why Emerald thinks Plum is trusted.  I haven't picked up on that, though they're not on a lot of Elim reads either, just nulls as they said. I envy that, being on several Elim or slightly Elim reads myself, but still, I wouldn't say they're trusted by any means. I myself certainly don't trust anyone. :-P

I don't know what to think about the other vote today.  Penguin just feels like a play style difference to me, which I've been on the wrong end of before. I don't feel like I can drop a vote there myself.

I'm not going to vote just yet, but I'll come back on tomorrow and vote. I had a crazy busy day today IRL, so I'm keeping this short. 

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4 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

What's your reasoning on Emerald?  Just trying to get them to discuss, or is there a read on them as possible Elim too?

Bit of both. Null minus to me so I felt it was a good time to hear more from them. Slight minus drift because I felt like the stab vote assertion was a bit convenient and disengaged; at the same time. Felt a bit like an Elim shopping for a target that wouldn't draw too much question. But their recent post has me considering again:

5 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Oh great. There's only two votes, and one of them is on me. I suppose I should vote on Scorpion, but I've cooled on that. Their post voting on Albatross was poor logic in my opinion, but poor logic doesn't mean evil player. In addition, Albatross was attacked last night, which feels too blatant if Scorpion was evil.

Could be an Elim deliberately trying this tactic. We've used this "they're so out of it they can't be Elim!" reasoning to exonerate players enough times I think it's clear eventually an Elim will try it. No idea if this is what is going on here. But part of me does say Falcon seems so out of it I am reconsidering.

Steel has already clarified that if the conversion hits a player in warform, then we'll get <Original Mavset-im Player> was a Rebel Warform! And if the warform hasn't been hit before, that's a really significant warning sign. Which means we know for certain no conversion happened this cycle, even though it's too early for it. (I mean, yeah, I did ask Steel via PM but that being said, I also don't really gain anything from lying about the rules :P ) 

I...do have negative reads of Plum Rhino and Mint Heron, which is strange and hypocritical of me, as I do think Vulture was constructing an Azbantium-grade tunnel on me but I also do think that players without my role PM or identity information (cf. how we play is informed by our formative experiences) are a bit too quick to dismiss that as a bad argument. Well, it's not great not terrible 3.6 Roentgen hi cyning this one's specially for you :P but it's not awful either. Saying: "Player X had a sus vote and also might fit an Elim profile" isn't the strongest but it is par for the course for D2. It feels like it's a good place for an Elim to position themselves. I do think the manner in which it went down doesn't make so much sense for an Elim, so I still have a light Village read of Vulture.

9 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

This could be a double-edged sword for Mavset-im, though. If they knowingly take over an account active in lots of PMs, they run the risk of being caught for suddenly not PMing. But I do wholeheartedly agree with PM safety here. Stay active in PMs, but don't reveal information you wouldn't want falling to Mavset-im in the event of the the players involved gets taken over.

Agreed.

Hey Elan if you ever read this thread, shout-out to you for your hard work. So many threads locked! Now I have to post to bump this up right on top again ;) 

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Going to start off with Mint Heron here. I get the sense they care more about how their voting patterns will be perceived than in voting for elims. D2 they first voted for someone other than their #1 suspicion because they didn't feel like creating a tie ~35 hours before the cycle ended. After switching to said suspect, they moved to Albatross to secure an exe, which would be neutral except they then retracted after public backlash. Villagers are supposed to get themselves read as village, but I think Heron's caring too much about deflecting suspicion.

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11 hours ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Oh great. There's only two votes, and one of them is on me. 

Technically it's a tie there so you're out of danger :P. 

10 hours ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

It was partly what I said, and partly the fact I didn't have a lot of time to go through the posts and see who else felt that way. I haven't been spending a lot of time analyzing.  

What's your reasoning on Emerald?  Just trying to get them to discuss, or is there a read on them as possible Elim too?

I'm curious why Emerald thinks Plum is trusted.  I haven't picked up on that, though they're not on a lot of Elim reads either, just nulls as they said. I envy that, being on several Elim or slightly Elim reads myself, but still, I wouldn't say they're trusted by any means. I myself certainly don't trust anyone. :-P

I don't know what to think about the other vote today.  Penguin just feels like a play style difference to me, which I've been on the wrong end of before. I don't feel like I can drop a vote there myself.

I'm not going to vote just yet, but I'll come back on tomorrow and vote. I had a crazy busy day today IRL, so I'm keeping this short. 

There's a lot not to like here that could be evil, could be business. (Strategically) withholding vote, not doing analysis, protecting e!Penguin, not trusting anyone (good guys need to build trusts more than baddies do). 

My initial red flag was +1ing the Rhino suspicion, but looking at the wording, that's an odd way of doing it. So, I'm leaning busy on this post, not evil. 

For what it's worth though, Plum Rhino seems cool. They've regularly said things I was thinking, so they're at least in the same zone as me. I've been deciding not to overcomplicate things and just take the gut trust there. 

So my list is I trust Rhino, Lion, Dragonfly (agree with everyone, a WGG is unnecessary), Tuatara, 

I'm less interested in voting for Mouse (cremshoot and I think they were trying to waste the evil supply), Falcon (again, I don't think I've actually seen any analysis of theirs I disagree with, and I can see how a good guy would come to pick Rhino), 

5 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Azbantium

Mate, I'm a Vulture, not Wolverine 

15 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said:

For now, I'm going to vote Penguin again.

Whose rule was it that if you try to kill someone enough times and it doesn't stick, they're probably evil? I'll go on record as being down for a Penguin kill at any time, but... now I'm wary enough of it possibly being just a playstyle thing that I've decided to back off. 

*

I agree with Rhino that I suspect at least one evil person voted the last two days. Assuming someone went for Stormform, one definitely did last Day. So removing my trusts, that makes a pool of: Flamingo, Scorpion, Heron, Beagle. Is Beagle too easy a pick there? Both Flamingo and Heron seem to have points against them. And look at that, both voted villagers on D1. So I'll shamelessly sheep Dragonfly's observations on this one and vote Mint Heron

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2 hours ago, Amber Vulture said:

Mate, I'm a Vulture, not Wolverine 

Why don't we have a Wolverine? For that matter, why don't we have a Tiger? Malaysia demands representation!

Agreed with Dragonfly here; it's something that makes me a bit uneasy of Heron, on top of my other concerns. (cf. Lion, 2021.) At this point in the cycle, I am not yet ready to turn this into a solid train, noting there may be mediationform hijinks, but also that I do think the votes should remain competitive for the time being.

Oxblood Beagle Emerald Falcon, interested in your thoughts at this point in the cycle. Here's another question: if Albatross hadn't broken the tie, would you still have voted yourself?

Edited to add: Thank you for subscribing to Lion 2.0 pinch-hitting services! What do you call the anon accounts Amaranth Crow and Cornsilk Crow?

Edited by Opal Lion
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Chashen couldn't remember much of the previous night. She had meant to stay up and keep watch, but she had fallen asleep without even realizing it. Even with everything going on, her aging body could still find time to make her pass out. That was humbling for her.

Shortly after she woke up, however, she was accosted by several of the other singers. They were accusing her of being one of the spies. Well, Chashen would just have to set them straight.

[OOC: So, some thoughts. Also, apologies for disappearing for a bit. Life has been hectic lately.

7 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Going to start off with Mint Heron here. I get the sense they care more about how their voting patterns will be perceived than in voting for elims. D2 they first voted for someone other than their #1 suspicion because they didn't feel like creating a tie ~35 hours before the cycle ended. After switching to said suspect, they moved to Albatross to secure an exe, which would be neutral except they then retracted after public backlash. Villagers are supposed to get themselves read as village, but I think Heron's caring too much about deflecting suspicion.

So, first off, I'm not even sure who you're referring to as my number one suspicion. In my mind, I have 3-4 players that I suspect so far, two of which were being voted on when it was the six way tie. I don't remember ever mentioning that I suspect any one of them more than any other player. Even if I had mentioned that I suspected one player more than the others, my personal philosophy on voting is that is always better to vote to add/create pressure than to try and make a new train. Going for a player I suspect a little less, but still suspect, that already has a vote or two is better than trying to start a whole new vote train.

As for my reaction to everything with the Albatross train, my vote was, like I've said, made in order to make sure we had an exe, especially because I was unsure of when I'd next be able to get on. And I was tired and frustrated from having a rough day, so I reacted somewhat poorly to people's reactions to my votes. But even then, I still stand by my actions. Even a misexe, at least this early in the game, is valuable for gathering information.

As for my own vote, I am incredibly conflicted. I've added the VC down below (which will be updated with my vote, whatever I decide that is), and looking at this, none of my options are great. Even if I suspected anyone on this list (which I don't really), voting on any of the other trains creates a tie. And I know that rollover is still a little while away, but voting to make a tie and therefore self-preserve feels wrong. But voting on a player I do suspect does nothing really, unless other people want to follow me onto another train. 

Okay, I've thought about this (there is a significant amount of real life time between this paragraph and the last), and I think I'm going to vote for one of my current suspects. There is plenty of time left in this turn, and I can always my vote to a better position later if I need to. My main suspects so far are Dingo, Vulture, Tuatara, Scorpion, and recently Falcon, though that is probably the weakest. I'm willing to give Dingo the benefit of the doubt for now, since they're busy right now. I'm probably not going to vote for Falcon because others have apparently decided they don't like that exe and I'm least confident of my suspicion on them. I'm going to avoid voting on Scorpion as well, because their post this turn is giving me more villager-y vibes, even if I still have that gut read of them. Of Tuatara and Vulture, I think I'm going to have to go for Vulture. Tuatara hasn't been on nearly as much, and I'm beginning to wonder if my gut read of them was simply because of early D1 weirdness. As for Vulture, I still am not a big fan of how they reacted to the Weasel train, the fact that they suspect Rhino, one of my main trusts, and the fact that they so casually dismiss all of their trusts from their stormform suspect list. It all just feels strange to me.

Here's the VC:

Heron (2): Dragonfly, Vulture
Beagle (1): Lion
Penguin (1): Flamingo
Rhino (1): Falcon
Vulture (1): Heron

Hopefully that is accurate.]

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44 minutes ago, Mint Heron said:

So, first off, I'm not even sure who you're referring to as my number one suspicion. In my mind, I have 3-4 players that I suspect so far, two of which were being voted on when it was the six way tie. I don't remember ever mentioning that I suspect any one of them more than any other player. Even if I had mentioned that I suspected one player more than the others, my personal philosophy on voting is that is always better to vote to add/create pressure than to try and make a new train. Going for a player I suspect a little less, but still suspect, that already has a vote or two is better than trying to start a whole new vote train.

As for my reaction to everything with the Albatross train, my vote was, like I've said, made in order to make sure we had an exe, especially because I was unsure of when I'd next be able to get on. And I was tired and frustrated from having a rough day, so I reacted somewhat poorly to people's reactions to my votes. But even then, I still stand by my actions.

You mentioned that you wanted to vote for Vulture but chose to put a second vote on Scorpion instead. At the time, there were more than 35 hours left in thread making threats of a tie far distant, and all six candidates only had one vote, which would have given plenty of time for a vote on Vulture to create pressure and start a train.

Voting Albatross to make sure there was an exe is something someone who wouldn't have been able to post again until rollover might do. It's a very different thought process to retracting that vote in favor of someone you suspected more, making a tie. I do understand having different priorities based on how well rested you are at the time.

And now your current vote diverges from a perceived pattern of voting for optics rather than efficacy, which is nice. I'm not ready to retract though.

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I see no reason why elim!Heron couldn't find a reason to vote someone who's already been voted to tie it up and give themselves a better chance of survival. Aside from that, however- I know I said earlier that I irrationally read Heron elim? Now I irrationally am getting a really bad feeling about this train, which is somewhat annoying as two of my strongest village reads are the only voters. Otherwise I would consider voting one of Heron's voters. Which is quite a switch but the gut goes where the gut goes.

@Opal Lion- I came out swinging against Vulture's post on you for various reasons, namely because I still read you as village and I definitely read you as Kas. It was less of a condemnation of Vulture's arguments and more of a validation on your behalf.

@Emerald Falcon- I legitimately don't understand your vote, so I can't explain anything I did that you're referring to because I don't know what you're referring to.

I think I'll further go against all my reads and vote Onyx Flamingo.

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4 hours ago, Mint Heron said:

 Of Tuatara and Vulture, I think I'm going to have to go for Vulture. Tuatara hasn't been on nearly as much, and I'm beginning to wonder if my gut read of them was simply because of early D1 weirdness. As for Vulture, I still am not a big fan of how they reacted to the Weasel train, the fact that they suspect Rhino, one of my main trusts, and the fact that they so casually dismiss all of their trusts from their stormform suspect list. It all just feels strange to me.

I disagree with your method of play, but I'm choosing not to think too hard about playstyles anymore. 

I don't suspect Rhino. See this comment:

For what it's worth though, Plum Rhino seems cool. They've regularly said things I was thinking, so they're at least in the same zone as me. I've been deciding not to overcomplicate things and just take the gut trust there

I'm not sure what you're getting at there.

And using my trusts to narrow down evil suspects is part of the game. You have to trust AND suspect go get anywhere fast. So I'm not sure that's a valid criticism either. 

As for the Weasel thing, we appear to be at odds over whether Tuatara is evil or not. I think the votes against them weren't there, but I can see how you'd suspect them. 

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On ‎7‎/‎25‎/‎2021 at 0:16 PM, Ivory Dragonfly said:

 @Oxblood Beagle, did Albatross getting themself killed make you want to save them?

7 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Oxblood Beagle Emerald Falcon, interested in your thoughts at this point in the cycle. Here's another question: if Albatross hadn't broken the tie, would you still have voted yourself?

Sorry, it's been a busy few days for me. Still is, but I have enough time to actually contribute this half of the turn.

Ivory, it was actually more of the opposite. If Albatross wanted to die, then I was fine letting them, and I didn't really want to fall into a trap of saving someone just because they were on for rollover. (I'd been typing that self-voting post for a while, so it was obvious I was watching.) That feeling was compounded by Albatross's last post asking if I could switch to Penguin. So no, I made the conscious decision to let Albatross die instead of there being a tie and watched to see if anything else strange occurred.

Opal, if Albatross hadn't tie-broken, my plan was to post my self-voting post as is, then go through the cycle and make a decision to break the tie one way or another. I wanted to get my quotas in before doing anything else, but my skimming of the cycle had gotten limited reasons for Albatross and essentially no reasons for Penguin besides not-Albatross, so I didn't really have a read on either of them. Cream Turatara had more reasons, but was a late set of votes and from what I can remember I could have just tied Turatara with Albatross.

I'll read through the past few days and see what I can come up with.

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