Amethyst Scorpion Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 For the record, I am not the Mediationform. I know that was asked/discussed, so I want to clear that. Them voting against Mavset-im doesn’t guarantee that they’re village, sadly, though, since any Elims wanted to remain hidden last cycle still. I expect this cycle to have to deal with a potential hammer by the Elims, though. Hopefully we still have the ability to fight it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said: For the record, I am not the Mediationform. I know that was asked/discussed, so I want to clear that. Them voting against Mavset-im doesn’t guarantee that they’re village, sadly, though, since any Elims wanted to remain hidden last cycle still. I expect this cycle to have to deal with a potential hammer by the Elims, though. Hopefully we still have the ability to fight it. Just going to point out since the Elims likely already know this that PoE dictates it can only be Weasel or Heron. If not Heron, Heron's probably in workform for tomorrow. Please do not claim workform, guys. We don't want the Elims to be able to easily have a countertrain to hammer on and if they have to pick their targets carefully, all the better. If you really feel like claiming, I guess you can always drop a trust a PM, but honestly we don't need to know at this point anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amber Vulture Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 Ooo the flip feels good. At this point, the game is more about casting votes than having discussions, but just so y'all know if I suddenly become less active, from Friday evening to Sunday evening I have Secret Plans that will hinder my ability/motivation to do much SE. Also, what can be added to what to make theatre? The answer was 'stra'. As in strawhat summer theatre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Amber Vulture said: Also, what can be added to what to make theatre? The answer was 'stra'. As in strawhat summer theatre. Spoiler Will probably just do the info dump after the game Kind of eh now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 You know, I've been wondering something. Vulture was no longer Scholar when I made the elim gem. Why were people talking about elim gems being created? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Azure Mouse said: You know, I've been wondering something. Vulture was no longer Scholar when I made the elim gem. Why were people talking about elim gems being created? I think they were just handed out from the elim stash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cream Tuatara Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said: I think they were just handed out from the elim stash. That's my guess as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted August 5, 2021 Report Share Posted August 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, Azure Mouse said: You know, I've been wondering something. Vulture was no longer Scholar when I made the elim gem. Why were people talking about elim gems being created? I mentioned Elim gems appearing - figured they were handed out from the stash because lack of decayform / stormform action seems to imply significant use of Village gems so Elim stash must not have been touched. I think Falcon assumed a Scholar had made them, and Heron ran with it because good excuse to band onto a Vulture train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onyx Flamingo Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 I agree with the suggestions not to claim vote manipulation if you haven't yet. I'm going to try to take a closer look at Mouse before the end of next turn. I'm still doubting that RP claim of theirs. @Plum Rhinoceros Why do you consider Mouse confirmed village? And would you still consider them village after this night turn and a second chance to convert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted August 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 You guys have 3 hours to submit any actions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Rhinoceros Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 9 hours ago, Onyx Flamingo said: @Plum Rhinoceros Why do you consider Mouse confirmed village? And would you still consider them village after this night turn and a second chance to convert? If they were elim, we wouldn't have been at exlo last turn. We would have lost. Granted, that's assuming the elims started with 5 and not 4, but I think that's a fair assumption. The ratio last turn was 6-5. If Mouse had been a convert it would have been 5-6. That's a loss, which didn't happen. Therefore, Mouse is village. If there's a next turn then Mouse is village. It's the same principle here. I guess technically they could have started as elim, but that seems like an unnecessary gambit and given some other things from today more behind the scenes I'd say that isn't the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 At the risk of triggering Vulture, given how we're basically locked in perma-lylo if we assume 6-4 (soon to be 5-4), I'm not super interested in team projections, to be honest. I get that suspicions need to stay fluid (thanks, Meta!) and should change as we get new information, though how much we get in the lategame depends. My question for everyone if I don't survive the Night is just simply: Do you really have a better candidate for the lynch than Heron? Because if you don't, you should vote Heron. Mouse and anyone else you're less sure about can wait. We need to lynch in order of certainty because until we know the disposition of the mediationforms (and especially if our mediationforms get gunned down in the Night), we have to assume we have no margin for error. That means you lynch the most certain suspect first and then if there is a next day, we move on to the next and to the next. I'm happy admitting I'm not dead certain even on Rhino and Vulture. I'm the sort of paranoid pain in the pula who retains that 0.1 or 0.01 credence they're playing the long game. It's just that my view is that in our lategame position, it doesn't really matter. We know we're against a team of four to five (three to four now) so assuming four, there's two other confederates out there to find first before reconsidering our priors. Ultimately it's the same principle: go from most certain to least certain. Happy revising Mouse credences later, but IMO, we can't control what Mouse does, we can't afford to lynch Mouse on the off-chance he switches teams, preventive/retaliatory lynching doesn't really take us to a good place (hi AG7 and Ventyl lynch), and most importantly - we're in perma-lylo. We mess up, we lose. It's not an enviable position to fight from, but I'm a Villager and I'm gonna go out fighting to the last. Most certain to least certain. Even if you think Mouse is Elim, or could be Elim, do you really think they're more suspicious or confirmed than Heron? And if Heron flips Evil, and using that information, you identify the connection to Tuatara - really worth opening that can of worms and ignoring Tuatara? And so on. (I'm not interested in possibilities where we're wrong about Heron because IMO the analysis points so heavily to Heron that if Heron is Village, we lose anyway. If any other Villager with a stone converts, we lose anyway. Why worry about those elements we can't control?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 (In terms of RP, Fumesh did take the gemstone, even if I failed.) Zure scampered through the camp, shivering off the rain. Her stomach felt painfully empty. The big nice one hadn't given her any food since he became a big mean one. She couldn't help feeling that it was because of her he wasn't nice anymore. It made her feel strangely empty inside, in a way that wasn't hunger. At least he had mostly ignored her so far. Some of the other big ones had tried to catch and kill her earlier, when they caught her stealing food. Even so, she could tell he wasn't the same anymore inside. A crunch sounded from under Zure's foot. She sighed in relief. Food. She settled down to begin to eat, wary of any big ones coming in that would try to kill her. It had been a mistake to listen to that spren, she decided. If she ever got home, she was never leaving the mountains again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 (edited) Freedom. What did it mean? There is no escape, the Fused had said. Atticus shivered and scratched in the dirt. The symbols and numbers ran together and then it was not cold rain falling outside the storm shelter but ash. "A risk you're taking, Mesist," Atticus said. But it wasn't him. It was someone else, someone else who felt closer to him than the blood in the jugular. Mesist shrugged. Human, by the looks of him, with a strange hat. "We all have to be takin' risks sometime, Erikell. You're a Lurcher. You goin' to risk it all, or wait for the skaa to cut our throats?" Dark dreams of blood and betrayal. The ramshackle buildings of a small town with a glowing spren frowning worriedly at him. "Hera..." Atticus muttered, but there was no spren, only lighting, the bright sheen of a swordblade, flickering off water. How far to come. How far to die. There is no escape. He was an Alethi, charging into battle with a spear in hand, determined to die. Foolish reason, pride. But they were fighting for more than pride. They were fighting for a man's dream, a man's ambition. But also a dream of a nation. One single united Alethkar. Chickens wheeled about overhead. He ducked beneath the spear-thrusts of the disintegrating battle-line and jammed his spear through another. "For Gavilar!" he roared. He was a trader, peddling pieces of bright shiny metal to a foolish hunter, promising him it was silver, that it would protect him from the lurking shades. Foolish man. Shadowed boughs and dark trees in the forests. He was an apothecary, mixing his poultices, and keeping a wary eye as the koloss closed in on the town of Tyrian Falls. Storms always on the horizon. You couldn't escape them. You lived in their shadow, and made your life, as best as you could. You ran from your past. And you kept fighting, kept trying. Because the only alternative was to lie down and die, and that was the one constant unyielding core as Atticus was swept from life to life: A will like the steel of a Shardblade. Fire blooming in gemheart, illuminating with its brilliance. Never give up. Never give in. Atticus dreamed and walked in dreams and the dark dreams swept over him and drowned him in their storm-surge. He was Karnan, Alethi swordsman, proud bodyguard, betrayed by the one he'd served. Karnad knew there was no escape: that he'd given his word, that you had to serve or die. He was Kaian, runaway boy, in love with the Queen of Arelon herself, brother to a Dula, but more than that, deeply in love with life itself, and fleeing the shackles of the Shu-Dereth monastery. He was Kalsin, who knew that sometimes, you had to pay the piper. Sometimes, you had to face the darkness. Sometimes, you had to stare it down, even if it swallowed you up. Even if you lost. Atticus stopped running. Atticus dreamed. He was Kwai, painter, poet, spy, Forger, and a killer of kings. A man who painted with blood as well as ink. A man who worked marvels in soulstone and the artisan's craft. A man of contradictions, with friends in high and low places. "He wanted me to do it," Kwai was saying. "To kill Frava and Urskevan. I refused. We choose, who we are. Every moment, every day. I chose to walk away.” We choose who we are, Atticus thought. Every moment, every day. He let the dreams, the lives, the blood and the darkness rush over him, but he was Atticus. He rode them, as though they were waves, attuned to them, as though they were Rhythms. He was Atticus and he was a Singer, and he would die on his feet rather than be dragged back to serve Odium all over again. He was done with their wars and his life and his body and his dreams were his. He was a hard, brilliant gemstone, flashing with fire, and water could wear down a gem but it could not—not yet—destroy it. He was Tenth of the Dusk, trapper, with a fragment of a slain god blazing inside him. You never stopped fighting, and that was the point, and what the man who'd come to claim Odium hadn't yet realised. You surrender when you're dead. The machete rose and fell and Atticus breathed. A faint glimmer out there in the falling storm. And then again. The sort of thing for a story about heroism, about spren, about the Knights Radiant. This was not one such story. There were no heroes here, only Singers, desperate and afraid. Only Singers who dared to dream of freedom, of potential unfulfilled. Of living their own lives in a quiet, fruitful place, far from the war, far from the fighting, far from the demands of the ancestors. Far from the hatred. Atticus got to his feet and brushed clean the patterns he'd drawn in the dirt, every last one of them. With each deliberate stroke, he attuned to Valour. He was Attikas, one of the last sons of the Last Legion. He was Atticus, and one of the last of the free Singers, and never again would he submit. Edited August 6, 2021 by Opal Lion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted August 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 The night is over. Do not PM during rollover. The day will be up soonish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeldancer he/him Posted August 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 LG79/AN10 Day 7: The Tipping Point The hectic events of the day before had left everyone exhausted. But having found a fused among them, it was time to gather and confer. Not only about the fact that there were traitors were among them, but there were other problems as well, which now felt obvious after what the Fused had said. "We have no food. We have no idea where we will shelter for the next highstorm. And where are we going to settle when we get there? It was great that we made it this far, but we will all starve on this barren land. We must turn back if we want to live." Pavli sang to Despair. The remaining singers whispered among themselves. They had been rationing, but indeed they did not have enough. And this flat land offered no protection against the raging highstorms that would come within the next couple of days. These, on top of the ideological problems that also had been brought up, were legitimate reasons to turn back. But if they turned back, they also turned their back on their only shot at freedom. Most likely, if they returned, they would all be executed. A decision needed to be made today. Thane sighed, and began to speak. ---- After having stabbed this Edith once, they wanted them gone once and for all. Nobody even noticed Edith slump over as the meeting began. --- Plum Rhino was killed. They were a Warform Rebel! Village Stash Spoiler Nimbleform Gem- 3 Workform Gem- 4 Mateform Gem- 3 Artform Gem- 4 Player List Spoiler 1. Amber Vulture 2. Amethyst Scorpion 3. Azure Mouse 4. Charcoal Hyena Mateform Rebel 5. Chartreuse Penguin- Elrin Mateform Rebel 6. Coral Swan Dullform Rebel 7. Cream Tuatara 8. Emerald Falcon Mavset-im 9. Fuchsia Ostrich Dullform Rebel 10. Indigo Weasel 11. Ivory Dragonfly- Kethri 12. Magenta Albatross Dullform Rebel 13. Mauve Crocodile Dullform Rebel 14. Melon Dingo Dullform Rebel 15. Mint Heron- Chashen 16. Onyx Flamingo 17. Opal Lion- Atticus 18. Oxblood Beagle- Jalnor Workform Rebel 19. Plum Rhinoceros- Edith Warform Rebel The day will end in about 48 hours at 12AM EDT, 8/8/21. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 I'll start us off, having beaten the wardrums for the past few days. It's been sad having to stop doing my usual write-up vandalism but it's in a good cause. Heron, because I accuse you of being a traitor to your fellow Singers, of trying to sell us back into servitude to Odium. Oh, and because I'm told I need to say you hate cats. That should do it, shouldn't it? If not I have an essay's worth of reasons I think you're Evil. Lesgo guys. (No but seriously I'll come back in with the analysis again later on. I've been talking about it nonstop since last cycle - suspicious reactions, odd tone in posting, the D2 voting swap, and Heron's D4 voting patterns in light of Beagle-Falcon's flip gives us significant reason to believe that Heron isn't on the up-and-up. If anyone can top that and give me a far more suspicious candidate, I'll go for them instead. Ni su'cuyi, gar kyr'adyc, ni partayli, gar darasuum, Rhino. Ib'tuur jatne tuur ash'ad kyr'amur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onyx Flamingo Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 I choose Heron, because your mother is a hamster and your father smells of elderberries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amber Vulture Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 A small part of me still thought Rhino was evil, so it's good to finally know their alignment A friendly reminder that this will be my it post this cycle. I like Mouse's theory about Heron being e!Mediationform, so I agree that they're the best target for today. Plus the whole Beagle thing. You have three hours to make me change my mind, then this will be locked in. Heron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mint Heron Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 30 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said: A friendly reminder that this will be my it post this cycle. I like Mouse's theory about Heron being e!Mediationform, so I agree that they're the best target for today. Plus the whole Beagle thing. You have three hours to make me change my mind, then this will be locked in. Heron I know I am village, and yes, I am in mediationform. After I attuned warform, I spent most day turns grabbing gems, in case I lost my extra life. I attuned mediationform after the turn I lost my extra life, because what else was I supposed to do? It was either that or workform, and I think deciding where exactly my double vote goes is better than just getting a -1 to any votes on myself. In addition, I officially accuse Tuatara of being an elim. I've been suspicious of them all game and honestly? I have no leads, besides them and Scorpion. I've come around to thinking Vulture is village, mostly because they would have to be doing some insane deepwolfing this game if they were an elim. And I don't think Mouse is an elim because I don't want to think that a villager would self-convert. It was most likely a ploy to get an elim to claim to them, accidentally outing themselves, and therefore get an elim death. Beyond that, I'm not sure. I trust Lion, because they too have been really helpful for the village and I can't buy them being a deepwolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azure Mouse Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mint Heron said: I know I am village, and yes, I am in mediationform. After I attuned warform, I spent most day turns grabbing gems, in case I lost my extra life. I attuned mediationform after the turn I lost my extra life, because what else was I supposed to do? It was either that or workform, and I think deciding where exactly my double vote goes is better than just getting a -1 to any votes on myself. In addition, I officially accuse Tuatara of being an elim. I've been suspicious of them all game and honestly? I have no leads, besides them and Scorpion. I've come around to thinking Vulture is village, mostly because they would have to be doing some insane deepwolfing this game if they were an elim. And I don't think Mouse is an elim because I don't want to think that a villager would self-convert. It was most likely a ploy to get an elim to claim to them, accidentally outing themselves, and therefore get an elim death. Beyond that, I'm not sure. I trust Lion, because they too have been really helpful for the village and I can't buy them being a deepwolf. If you've been suspicious of them all game, why didn't you vote for them D4? I accuse you of being an eliminator, Heron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Azure Mouse said: If you've been suspicious of them all game, why didn't you vote for them D4? If you've been suspicious of them all game, why didn't you vote for them D4 since that could have killed them? This was the vote situation when you came in: Quote Beagle (3): Tuatara, Hyena, Dragonfly Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle Hyena (3): Lion, Rhino, Vulture Heron (1): Flamingo Falcon (1): Heron Vulture (1): Scorpion You chose to go onto Hyena, now known to be a Villager, ignoring Tuatara, a player you have been suspicious of all game. It was decently close to the end of the cycle that you should have expected your vote might be decisive. (As it turned out, it wasn't, but no one expected the Dragonfly-Lion-Vulture trifecta, least of all ourselves.) More damningly, your vote saved Beagle, whom we know now to be Malibu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amethyst Scorpion Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 I suspect Tuatara may also be Elim and Heron is just getting desperate, but my vote is of course going on Heron this cycle. We need to stay united. Hopefully I can prove to everyone that I am indeed village. There will be no voting shenanigans from me, nothing suspicious if I can manage to not accidentally incriminate myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Opal Lion Posted August 6, 2021 Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 (edited) Reminder to all Villagers: as Dragonfly mentioned last cycle, we need to claim and hold these workform gems. Otherwise we could face a very tough road ahead as we fight our way out of lylo. The Elim wincon is not based on player parity but on voting parity, so it is critical to be able to secure the gems and enter workform if you can. We shouldn't be dividing the vote at this stage anyway as @Amethyst Scorpion has pointed out, so the drawback of workform doesn't matter. Edit: If you have secured a gem and entered workform, please do not claim. This makes it harder for the Elims to decide who to form a counterwagon on, should they attempt to hammer us. Edited August 6, 2021 by Opal Lion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indigo Weasel Posted August 7, 2021 Report Share Posted August 7, 2021 I agree that Heron is a good candidate for elim and the best grinch candidate for today. Vote Heron D7 grinchee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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