Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Okay, so I did something I haven't done in a while and did some player by player analysis from last cycle (day and night turns, though mostly I went back to day, since there's more to get info from there). Here's my conclusions:

1. Amber Vulture    Slightly Elim, claims Mouse is just trying to waste Elim gem supply.
2. Amethyst Scorpion    Totally village.
3. Azure Mouse    Possible Elim by now, maybe not. Willing to be converted.
4. Charcoal Hyena    Mavset-im plan is possibly helpful but could be easily faked by Elims, blocks other actions. Slight Elim read.
5. Chartreuse Penguin    Slightly vil for Mateform confirmation, and action discussion. Dead, was using an old list and forgot.
6. Coral Swan    Didn't post, null read for now. Dead, was using an old list and forgot.
7. Cream Tuatara    Suspects Mouse (reasonable), suspected by Heron without good reason. Slightly vil.
8. Emerald Falcon    Slightly vil for Mateform confirmation.
9. Fuchsia Ostrich    Didn't post, null read for now. Dead, was using an old list and forgot.
10. Indigo Weasel    Moderate vil lean from Mateform link.
11. Ivory Dragonfly    Slightly Village from tone
12. Magenta Albatross    Didn't post, null read for now. Dead, was using an old list and forgot.
13. Mauve Crocodile    Didn't post, null read for now. Dead, was using an old list and forgot.
14. Melon Dingo    IRL difficulties, null for now.
15. Mint Heron    Seems genuine in considering suspects, even though I am one. Slight vil lean.
16. Onyx Flamingo    Slightly vil for Mavset-im comment about prior PM contents.
17. Opal Lion    Null
18. Oxblood Beagle    Slightly Elim because of late bandwagon
19. Plum Rhinoceros    Slightly village, don't suspect WGG, worried about late bandwagon on Penguin but they gave good reason

I'm dropping a vote on Amber Vulture this round I think, not just for their comments on Mouse, but that's a large part of it. Their tone seems too in-the-know.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Amethyst Scorpion
Formatting, then fixed for dead players.

[Azure Mouse]

Fumesh watched the flames flicker fiercely.

Puff, puff, puff, rose the smoke. Curling and twisting. Rising and listing. Softly whispering.

Tonight, the highstorm would come and wash it away. The smoke would join the winds, becoming a part of the storm.

A sort of Soulcasting. Like fire, turning wood and flesh to smoke. Alluring, dangerous smoke. What would it be like, he wondered, to ride the storm like it could?

He became aware of someone nudging him, telling him to snap out of it. Telling him to hurry up, or be left behind. With some reluctance, he followed.

As the group moved on, he shot one last glance back at the smoke rising gently into the wind. Not yet, he thought. Not yet.
---
Later that day, Fumesh felt a... something, nudging his foot. He looked down. A small furry creature looked back at him. He looked at it for a minute, until it went back to nibbling on the small morsel of food it had found in his pocket.

Your name is Zure, thought Fumesh. It wasn't a decision, but rather a realization. How strange. Perhaps the smoke had sent it.

When the time came to resume walking, he scooped up the creature in one of his pockets, where it almost immediately fell asleep.

Good night, Zure, thought Fumesh.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Reads: I only read past D2ish so when I finish later tonight some things might be different. I'll make a new post if that's the case. Not every person has reasoning and that's because I had to leave as I was finishing, I'll update those sorry xD

EDIT: Updated now, should all be up to date.

Spoiler

Village:

Spoiler

Opal Lion: Just... village :P.

Ivory Dragonfly: Aside from being attacked, I think their early posts, especially D1, come off as very village.

Maybe Village:

Spoiler

Amber Vulture: Vulture actually jumped down a tier for me... they went after Penguin early, and stuck with them every turn until they were exed- something I didn't pick up on before my reread. A lot of their posts come off as village but there are a few that just don't for me. I'm more inclined to read those as a difference in playstyle (especially because of my guess for Vulture's identity) but it's still something. The main one of these being their post where they said all their reads were entirely built off of elim!me. That just doesn't make sense. Everything else about them seems village though :P.

Cream Tuatara: Rereading their analysis, not only did I still agree with my previous conclusion that it is too blatant to come from an elim, I noticed a few gem statements that went unnoticed D1-2 that I think come from a very village mindset. They also stuck to their guns for a long while, when I'd expect an elim would drop off.

Null Leaning Village:

Spoiler

Amethyst Scorpion: We reacted to the Tuatara situation D1 in nearly identical fashions, and I've reread their posts and the posts about them several times and cannot for the life of me figure out why they're so suspected. I find it... odd that they apparently forgot that people died though.

Onyx Flamingo: I really am so undecided on Flamingo it's just not even funny  Rereading made me see why I initially village read them, but I still have the nagging feeling they're not. I don't know, sticking them here, if there's one person I should look at even deeper it's Flamingo. I also get the feeling that if I knew their meta (AKA identity) I would be able to get a better read but ha, that's not happening.

Null:

Spoiler

Oxblood Beagle: Help me read them  I get nothing from their posts, save a few, balanced on both sides (meaning I get the occasional elim vibe and village vibe, and they're about equal.) Literally no idea. Flying under my radar 100%.

Melon Dingo: Probably my weirdest read. They had that thing about the Scholarforms D1 that was similar to Tuatara's post, but in the context of everything else around it I'm rewriting my opinion on that to be a villager thinking too far ahead and not necessarily in the moment... and I guess their tunnel on me sorta reads village, maybe they deserve to be a tier higher. But they dropped off me early and then went inactive after reading but not responding to my PM to them. Maybe I'm sticking them here still subconsciously tinfoiling that they're Mavset :P.

Indigo Weasel: I forgot they existed until after I finished this post and the updated version, so I guess they're here :P.

Null Leaning Elim:

Spoiler

Mint Heron: After lots of thinking I moved them here- I still didn't like their train but Heron themselves still gives me a negative vibe. Might be because they're someone I always get a negative vibe from, I know I have a few people like that :P.

Maybe Elim:

Spoiler

Charcoal Hyena: Early D1 they had the thing about how we should go for Mateform and Scholarform- I originally found it odd they prioritized Mateform so high, but this time around it didn't strike me as odd as it did then. However, they went after Penguin pretty hard, going as far as to twist a statement in a form of confbias simply for the sake of calling them out. A few other Hyena posts, rereading them, strike me as off.

Azure Mouse: I disliked OG Mouse's first post a lot more this time around... their vote on Tuatara sticks out to me the most there. NewMouse said the thing about my WGG being unlikely, which I guess that could come from either alignment... maybe Mouse is an honorary Null Leaning Elim? I think NewMouse's initial elim read of me pre attack/survive was elimmy though... I'll leave them here.

Emerald Falcon: I think I've disagreed/got a bad vibe from every single one of their votes this game so far? Still seems to be stuck on Tuatara for no reason, I think.

Elim:

Spoiler

N/A, not confident enough in anyone. Rip.

 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Emerald Falcon]

Okay, I'm voting for Cream Tuatara for two reasons. One, they haven't voted during this game. That's completely unhelpful if they're good, and extremely detrimental if they are evil. Second, I keep circling back to Day 1. Something about it makes me suspect that it was a V/E lynch.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

I updated my reads post just up there, if anyone didn't see the final version.

I'll put my vote on Falcon to start.

[Opal Lion]

It's been an interesting few hours and Lion.exe has stopped working. 

I'm going to place a vote on Hyena while I re-evaluate when I have the time. Rhino. 

[Amber Vulture]

What good is a WGG if people know its a WGG? I'll add that giving too much information unprompted is a Thing evil!Mat did in that LG they were a theif in. They made an offhand comment about what they did with their night action to preemptively cover if anyone asked what they did, which was either stealing or submitting the kill, I can't remember. Seems like they gave TMI this time around, mentioning getting a gem to have one prepared. It'd be cool if they submitted the kill on themselves then had a teammate pass them the gem for cover. 

In more reliable analysis news, I'd still like to know if anyone made a PM last night. To those that didn't, why not? It would have cleared you of having submitted the NK

[Opal Lion]

I see the Tuatara arguments, it just doesn't really feel V/E/E or V/V/E D1 to me, depending on your view of Dingo. Ross was also the late deciding swing so I don't really know if I'd take it to be especially indicative. Guess I'm agreeing with Rhino and Mouse on Tuatara which I don't know about. 

Of the two, I obviously still feel worse about Scorpion than Flamingo — with the caveat that yes I know you've responded and thank you, I' ll go over those again, but the voting patterns are what still don't seem right to me. My general philosophy is that players can have a silver tongue but voting patterns reflect strategic priorities. I guess this gives me a Scorpion-Heron-Rhino triad to re-examine. 

Brief point on the WGG — I intuitively agree with Mouse, as I personally dislike WGGs as a play. (Reasons I don't want to go into here, involving squabbles between SE players around the LG12 era.) But I don't think it's right to say a lynch survivor automatically has suspicion cleared from them, or is as likely to. Lynches tend to ostensibly be more Village involved. Often, a failed lynch just has the Village determined to go for round 2 to get closure or more information. WGGs, when they do work, work because they involve the Elim kill—they rely on the target being soft-cleared because the Elims seem to want them dead. Seeing as this was the reasoning we employed to clear Dragonfly, I feel as though it's stretching it to suggest that WGGs and lynch survivals have equivalent effects. No, and that's why they don't play the same role in the calculus. 

Anyway, reasons mentioned yesterday stand for Hyena. 

P.S. I didn't send a night PM because it's been years since I had a Tineye role and wanted to make beautiful art. But I've told two players beforehand what would go into the write-up and can obviously explain a couple of stuff about it. 

Edit: Whoa there Rhino ninja 

Edited July 29, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Plum Rhinoceros]

1 hour ago, Emerald Falcon said:

Second, I keep circling back to Day 1. Something about it makes me suspect that it was a V/E lynch.

What, exactly? Because I just reread it, and that doesn't seem to be something that can even be made a case for:

It's ~10 hours before the turn ends, and the (relevant) count is-

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse

Swan (2): Lion, Scorpion

The only changes to this count here are Ross- a confirmed village- moving to Swan, and Flamingo voting Swan as well. So I guess your case makes sense if and only if Flamingo is elim, but since Flamingo voted Swan before Ross switched that doesn't make sense either. So what is making you suspect it's V/E?

4 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

What good is a WGG if people know its a WGG?

Exactly- and my attack being a WGG is literally the first thing everyone thought of once I survived. There would be no good in WGGing elim!me, then, because everyone would automatically think it's a WGG. It would have been completely pointless, for this reason and others, like the one Mouse brought up.

7 minutes ago, Amber Vulture said:

I'll add that giving too much information unprompted is a Thing evil!Mat did in that LG they were a theif in. They made an offhand comment about what they did with their night action to preemptively cover if anyone asked what they did, which was either stealing or submitting the kill, I can't remember. Seems like they gave TMI this time around, mentioning getting a gem to have one prepared. It'd be cool if they submitted the kill on themselves then had a teammate pass them the gem for cover. 

I don't see why me doing anything Mat did is relevant  

But this does just feel like you need to come up with reasons to exe me. Like you're fighting the fact that this doesn't make sense. My action list wasn't an unprompted offhand comment, it was a direct response to Lion's accusation. You could say I gave TMI, but I'm sure if I hadn't given a complete list someone would have asked for one :P. The situation kinda demanded it, or at least I thought so. My mind was kind of fried at that point and revealing my entire action list might have just been a gut reaction.

I also almost put in what gem I took lol. Restrained myself there.

[Opal Lion]

5 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

What, exactly? Because I just reread it, and that doesn't seem to be something that can even be made a case for:

It's ~10 hours before the turn ends, and the (relevant) count is-

The only changes to this count here are Ross- a confirmed village- moving to Swan, and Flamingo voting Swan as well. So I guess your case makes sense if and only if Flamingo is elim, but since Flamingo voted Swan before Ross switched that doesn't make sense either. So what is making you suspect it's V/E?

Exactly- and my attack being a WGG is literally the first thing everyone thought of once I survived. There would be no good in WGGing elim!me, then, because everyone would automatically think it's a WGG. It would have been completely pointless, for this reason and others, like the one Mouse brought up.

I don't see why me doing anything Mat did is relevant  

But this does just feel like you need to come up with reasons to exe me. Like you're fighting the fact that this doesn't make sense. My action list wasn't an unprompted offhand comment, it was a direct response to Lion's accusation. You could say I gave TMI, but I'm sure if I hadn't given a complete list someone would have asked for one :P. The situation kinda demanded it, or at least I thought so. My mind was kind of fried at that point and revealing my entire action list might have just been a gut reaction.

I also almost put in what gem I took lol. Restrained myself there.

The real question is, how many times do you think Dingo counted for ':P.'?

[Plum Rhinoceros]

My stance on the Mateforms: I absolutely think that no more than one of [Falcon, Scorpion, Weasel] is evil. It just does not make sense in any way for the elims to have gone for two Mateform gems. Honestly I sort of doubt any elims would go for Mateform in the first place, which admittedly weakens my vote, but I'm sort of ignoring that for now. Actually, that gives me an idea...

@Everyone how do we feel about claiming if you have a gem from the village stash/are in a form from the village stash? Not which one, just that you're in one or have a gem. If there's more people claiming to be than there are gems, we know there's an elim in the pool. I'd guess with near certainty that at least one elim took a gem from the elim stash instead of the village stash, so the people that don't answer (or answer with a no) would create a pool of people that likely holds an elim.

Typing it out makes me think it's not as good of an idea as I thought, because I'm realizing that the pools it creates aren't really definitive, but it potentially could be something we can do if people want to. If people don't that's fine though xD

2 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

The real question is, how many times do you think Dingo counted for ':P.'?

I didn't use it all when I was all formal and stuff, and they went inactive once I stopped doing that, so I'm going to guess zero

...Don't see how that's relevant to anything either, though  

[Cream Tuatara]

1 hour ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

My stance on the Mateforms: I absolutely think that no more than one of [Falcon, Scorpion, Weasel] is evil. It just does not make sense in any way for the elims to have gone for two Mateform gems. Honestly I sort of doubt any elims would go for Mateform in the first place, which admittedly weakens my vote, but I'm sort of ignoring that for now. Actually, that gives me an idea...

@Everyone how do we feel about claiming if you have a gem from the village stash/are in a form from the village stash? Not which one, just that you're in one or have a gem. If there's more people claiming to be than there are gems, we know there's an elim in the pool. I'd guess with near certainty that at least one elim took a gem from the elim stash instead of the village stash, so the people that don't answer (or answer with a no) would create a pool of people that likely holds an elim.

Typing it out makes me think it's not as good of an idea as I thought, because I'm realizing that the pools it creates aren't really definitive, but it potentially could be something we can do if people want to. If people don't that's fine though xD

I'll say that I did get a gem from the stash, but it was on d2, not d1.

[Mint Heron]

[OOC: First off, here is a poorly formatted VC due to the restraints of the mobile text editor.

Tuatara (2): Mouse, Falcon

Rhino (1): Vulture

Vulture (1): Scorpion

Falcon (1): Rhino

Hyena (1): Lion

Second, why is that two of my suspicions are being voted on by someone else I suspect (Scorpion voting for Vulture and Falcon voting for Tuatara). Surely it’s not because some of them might actually be incorrect.

Is it strange of me to suspect Falcon for going for what I feel like is a poorly reasoned vote on someone I do actually suspect for other reasons? Yes, I agree that not voting is odd, but there have been countless villagers in previous games that have spent most of their games not voting. I do not think this fact alone makes one an elim, and to me it looks like an elim trying to find any reason to vote on someone. Whether or not Tuatara is an elim like I believe they are doesn’t negate the fact that the reasons given for the vote on Tuatara feel odd to me. For this reason, and the odd feelings their tone has given me in the past, I shall vote on Falcon. I am trying to avoid reacting negatively to creating ties in this game, because I know that it is still only roughly a quarter of the way through the cycle. There is plenty of time for the tie to be broken, whether by myself or someone else. Take this as a promise that I shall move my vote later in the cycle if I need to prevent a tie.

I’m not too upset about either of the current leading exe candidates. I am aware that my reasonings for them both being elims in my mind is…contradictory, at first glance, but I believe it works.

Anyway, here is a the new VC, as of my vote:

Tuatara (2): Mouse, Falcon

Falcon (2): Rhino, Heron

Rhino (1): Vulture

Vulture (1): Scorpion

Hyena (1): Lion

In addition, I shall go ahead and say that I am in possession of a gem from the village stash. I will leave whether or not I used it a secret, to prevent from too much information going into elim hands.]

[Indigo Weasel]

Rhino, one problem with claiming gemstones is that some people may have claimed more than one, causing errors in the count. In addition, indicating that (multiple gemstones) could cause (... whichever form destroys gemstones... decayform? Anyways) to know which people to target for an effect. 

[Oxblood Beagle]

I do have more time. Cream Tuatara, the cycle is young. Like me you haven't done too much. Unlike me you haven't made much effort to do so, especially since your D1 post gathered a bunch of negative attention. So I'll ask again. You have anything to share, vote, anything?

 

I'm working on analyzing previous posts, but I'm rather exhausted from today's activities and nearly missed the fact Amethyst Scorpion had returned. So, that will occur tomorrow. But it will.

[Onyx Flamingo]

I'm going to try to do a dive into reads before rollover tomorrow, but for now, Hyena. Others have brought up good points about them, and I don't remember ever thinking something they said was super villagery.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Onyx Flamingo
color formatting

[Plum Rhinoceros]

7 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Rhino, one problem with claiming gemstones is that some people may have claimed more than one, causing errors in the count. In addition, indicating that (multiple gemstones) could cause (... whichever form destroys gemstones... decayform? Anyways) to know which people to target for an effect. 

I know I claimed two gems from the count- the one I hold right now and the Warform one that doesn't exist anymore. This isn't a problem if people with two just claim two, which I assumed would happen anyway. The elims knowing who has gems is a downside I had mentioned from the beginning, and it's something we're going to have to live with if we want this information- we're getting to the point in the game where it's do-or-die and I'm not sure if holding on to this information right now is for the best.

[Opal Lion]

31 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

I know I claimed two gems from the count- the one I hold right now and the Warform one that doesn't exist anymore. This isn't a problem if people with two just claim two, which I assumed would happen anyway. The elims knowing who has gems is a downside I had mentioned from the beginning, and it's something we're going to have to live with if we want this information- we're getting to the point in the game where it's do-or-die and I'm not sure if holding on to this information right now is for the best.

If there's an Elim in decayform, it's information we still don't have. They'd have to spend an action first which could help us if we are looking at action logs and I'm not necessarily convinced they went for decayform at this juncture. Unless they've been hitting inactives or players without gems (possible), that's radio silence from anyone who should've sounded out on a decayform hit. That's still something to work from, if there really is someone in decayform. Apart from our warforms tanking NKs for us, I honestly think the biggest superpower we need right now are Villagers signing on to discuss and vote. This game was always meant to be analysis-centric. Role gems are nice but they're not game-winners especially at this juncture.

I'm with Rhino on the fact that there's a time and place for secrecy, and that we're rapidly reaching the point where it's more important to find an Elim than to hide roles we...really weren't hiding all that well anyway. Our four mateforms are already known and I believe that due to circumstantial reasons and tracking, I know with a bit of room for error and one or two operational assumptions all the scholarforms and warforms. This is entirely due to player behaviour rather than opsec. If we want to talk about opsec, opsec already failed when we had such a low vote and post size count that those roles couldn't blend in.

I'm going to take a stab at the pool of players who didn't score a gem D1.

I'm one of them, as indicated by the N1 group PM I made. We know Ross and Ostrich were two other players, and confirmed Villagers. Tuatara has claimed to have gotten a D2 gem, which puts them among those who failed D1. (FYI, I'm the D2 artform claimant, so we know Tuatara either went for nimbleform or mediationform. If you aren't the recepient of a Tuatara PM, we should probably ask what's happening with Tuatara's extra action.) I received a PM from Flamingo N1 so Flamingo didn't succeed either. (Sorry Flamingo, I think it's time to bring this out into the open.) This gives us a pool of five out of seven players.

If we make a few operating assumptions, I think we know who all seven are. I will assume that Dingo and Mouse were in the seven. I think it is rare for players to go inactive on scoring a 'fun' role or a 'power' role; this has also been my defeasible reasoning for being less gung-ho on Dingo now. I think given Dingo's prior enthusiasm to be an Elim, and this general psychological tendency among a certain profile of player, it is less likely for Dingo to be an Elim. Also, I think the filter will take care of Dingo for us anyway, so that's not a big deal right now. Similarly, given Mouse's inactivity, while RL happens, I do think this might make Mouse a candidate for a failed role grab D1. But this is an assumption so I shall mark it as one.

I don't think it's impossible that all seven players are Village but I think it would be very unlikely for all to be Village without a single Elim among us. I acknowledge the inclusion of Dingo and Mouse sort of muddies things, but minimally, we have certainty on the identities of five and allegiances of two.

I would argue it's beyond question that Weasel, Scorpion, Penguin, Falcon, Rhino (due to the N2 and N3 PMs unless those were with teammates and that would be such a weird lie that I'm ignoring this possibility), and Dragonfly all got gems D1 due to verifiability. (Vulture and Heron have made claims but I will rank claims one step below this level of verification - we can add them in on Level 2.) This gives us 6 players who demonstrably got D1 gems, 8 if we take Vulture's and Heron's claims as plausible. I will tentatively add Beagle to this list for demonstrating a few tells. 

I don't think the mateform grab is necessarily allegiance-indicative: being unable to vote for your mate is convenient, and I could see having a lasting PM without needing to spend actions as being something Elims would like. (Village too, to be fair.) What's important is that because everyone was roleless (except Mavset-im) and there were more mateform gems than demand, everyone was guaranteed a mateform gem anyway. On the assumption that twelve players (7 + 5) went for the warform/scholarform gems, we have very slight reason to believe these are more likely to be Village, but RNGesus is a pain, frankly, and we don't know the distribution and base probabilities so there is that.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

@Opal Lion do you know off the top of your head how many gems have been taken from the village stash in total? I could check myself but WoK Shallan says that there's no point in discovering information already known, so...  

And then, maybe I'm misunderstanding here- you have a group of people who verifiably got a village gem D1, and then a group of people who verifiably went for one and missed- who's in neither group? An elim who went for the elim stash would be in neither group.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Cream Tuatara]

@Opal Lion, I kinda forgot I had a second action. I'm using it to grab a gem and make a PM today.

[Opal Lion]

32 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

@Opal Lion do you know off the top of your head how many gems have been taken from the village stash in total? I could check myself but WoK Shallan says that there's no point in discovering information already known, so...

I can do you one better

Tracker of Gems Taken:

Spoiler

D1:

Spoiler

- 4 mateform gems
- 2 scholarform gems
- 3 warform gems
- 1 artform gem

= 10 gems; that's how we got the 7 who didn't get gems. Swan excluded because lynch is first on OoA, Crocodile excluded though we do know Crocodile succeeded and didn't go for mateform, but their gem went back to the stash so we wouldn't be able to tell which of the gems they went for, just that it wasn't warform/scholarform.

D2:

Spoiler

- 2 nimbleform gems
- 1 artform gem (it me  )
- 2 mediationform gems

= 5 gems; recall that 7 ostensibly failed to get gems D1, though of course, some people especially the warforms could've double-dipped.

D3:

Spoiler

- 1 nimbleform gem
- 2 mateform gems
- 5 workform gems

= 8 gems; I am concerned that the workform rush is predominantly Elim, though it could be a reaction to the mediationform gems disappearing.

 

32 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

And then, maybe I'm misunderstanding here- you have a group of people who verifiably got a village gem D1, and then a group of people who verifiably went for one and missed- who's in neither group? An elim who went for the elim stash would be in neither group.

Yes, and in my view, that's something that has to be ascertained based off the data in the first place: did the Elims go to their stash, or no? Where are the Elims to be found? Back on N1, Flamingo speculated that the Elims were to be found on every major train. At this point, I'm really just interested in profiling and modeling Elim action and combining that sense of what the Elims are doing with vote analysis.

To be a bit blunt, all we have for Heron, Vulture, and Beagle right now are claims they got specific gems and softing certain forms. There's no mechanical evidence, though it's certainly verifiable. The core group of four players who demonstrably either did not get a gem, or claimed to not have gotten one and spent their Night action on PMs also can be minimally ascertained to have not successfully claimed a gem from the Village stash (cf. Ross and Ostrich dying in dullform). Tuatara's form is entirely claimed at the moment; I feel my claim is a tad stronger in light of the fact the D2 artform gem is missing, no one is contradicting me on having gone for it, I did spend my N1 action on that PM, and I predicted the contents of the Tineye vandalisation art  So it would be strange for me to have gone for an Elim gem and then just overwritten it with an artform gem. It's not really impossible but it'd be an odd way to waste an action.

You mentioned at most one Elim in the mateform group; I agree with this assessment. I do think the pool of seven i.e. those who did not claim a Village gem likely contains at least one Elim, and an Elim who went for the Elim stash has to be in the group of seven as well because the seven is derived from nineteen players subtracting Swan, Crocodile, and the ten who successfully claimed a Village gem.

It's just that I don't necessarily find 'went for the Elim stash' a helpful possibility because an Elim could also try to go for the warform/scholarform fight. The main reason it might be helpful to consider this is just that the more Elims went for their stash, the more we can lightly clear anyone with warform/scholarform. Keyword: lightly.

Edited to add: Let me phrase it this way as I think it's more direct and so more helpful. A simple count of the D1 missing gems confirms for us that ten players successfully claimed Village gems. Eleven if we want to add Crocodile, though I think nothing is lost by excluding Crocodile. Subtraction from total player numbers tells us that seven players failed to claim Village gems. They could be Elims who tried and failed in the warform/scholarform gem fight, they could be Villagers who failed, or they could be Elims who went for the Elim stash. I think we have enough information to work out some possibilities, but since some of us are essentially just claiming to have failed D1, the possibility of having gone to the Elim stash instead is a live one. I will point out I think Mavset-im definitely went for a Village gem D1 - they have nothing better to do with their action anyway as claiming an Elim gem is functionally useless and wastes their action unless they were feeding teammates.

Edited July 29, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Plum Rhinoceros]

24 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

I can do you one better

Thanks  

So 23 gems taken total, and some number of those claimed and accounted for. We should do our best, I think, to completely fill that out as unspecific as possible. Off the top of my head-

My 2, Lion's, Dragonfly's, the 4 Mateforms, Heron's, Tuatara's, Vulture's- are those the only ones we know? That makes 11, which is about half :P. Dragonfly probably has another but I don't think we actually know that. Maybe you said Beagle has one idk

Edited July 29, 2021 by Plum Rhinoceros

[Opal Lion]

7 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Maybe you said Beagle has one idk

Beagle hasn't claimed but there are only so many players voting and with posts of > 150 words each Day Turn.

Excluding Crocodile, since no one died N2 or N3, we know that there's some gem-hoarding going on. Penguin died a mateform so that's one gem to write off, and they used the gem D2, so having been lynched D3, had no further opportunity to claim a gem. That brings us down to 22 gems. Ross didn't claim a gem either due to OoA, and neither did Swan, so we're looking at a total of 18 - 3 = 15 players, and 22 gems. Either seven players really wanted redundancy or I think we're seeing some Elim day grabs potentially. Minus you and Dragonfly because you'd both have no reason not to go for gems especially having lost warform's one benefit - five players chasing redundancy. Could be other mateforms and warforms as well, so maybe it's overly-hasty to suspect Elim action. The fact we haven't seen mediationform in action should imply it's being hoarded, I think.

[Amber Vulture]

If @Oxblood Beagle has Scholarform, why haven't they claimed it? 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

Just now, Amber Vulture said:

If @Oxblood Beagle has Scholarform, why haven't they claimed it? 

Why would they claim it?