Long Game 81: Lasting Integrity?

[Mat he/him]

14 minutes ago, Azmine_king said:

Mmm, I don't like that explanation for either of us but mostly Lahilt

 

You only listed a negative and yet have him at an above null stance. I'm fine being null but at least there's potential town points I've gotten compared to many of those above me.

I mean yeah those are bad reasons

I feel like there was something that made me put Lahilt higher than null in the moment but I can’t remember what it was. I should reread in general but maybe that’s a better thing to do after Mage actually flips.

[Archer he/him]

Quick thoughts:

-I'm getting weird vibes from people who are eager to remind us how villagery they've been. Cactash keeps mentioning how they claimed elim, and Mat that they didn't know the elim doc rules. I am more convinced of ignorance like Araris', as he said D1: "An elim could definitely post misleading probabilities (in the case of a newer player, likely at the behest of their team) in order to throw people off."
-I can see a Danex-Mage team being a thing. I'll probably go down the list of D1 TJ voters as my top suspects if Mage flips elim. I can't see elims sticking to vanity wagons if their teammate is under fire like they were. Also, I think Mage voting for Ashwastaken was a legitimate CW attempt, so take the first point with a grain of salt.
-Yes, Mat, you should have just explained those from the beginning :P. 
-Araris, I like the emoji.

[Lahilt he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean yeah those are bad reasons

I feel like there was something that made me put Lahilt higher than null in the moment but I can’t remember what it was. I should reread in general but maybe that’s a better thing to do after Mage actually flips.

Ha Ha, I do want to point out that I am generally a more low content player due to the four letter word called WORK and the lack of the five letter one called SLEEP, this does not make me more likely village or elim it just is normal for me so do not read to much into it. 

@Mage I would like to see a list of reads from you, if you are indeed a villager it could be very helpful when we prove your true alliance.

Currently I do not have very many reads I prefer analyzing votes and actions to gut feelings because my gut is often wrong.

Mage did seem a bit off so I am totally fine with killing them, but I am not convinced that they are elim.

if Mage = Village 

I am suspicious of those who are pushing the lynch too much or those hopping early on the bandwagon. probably most suspicious of Mat slightly less sus of Araris

if Mage = Elim

although I do expect that an Elim voted for Mage, I do not think that two would gang up on a fellow elim on the first round, suspicisions TUO, Azmine King, and Danex in that order.

Edited October 26, 2021 by Lahilt
typo

[Azmine_king]

1 hour ago, Lahilt said:

if Mage = Village 

I am suspicious of those who are pushing the lynch too much or those hopping early on the bandwagon. probably most suspicious of Mat slightly less sus of Araris

if Mage = Elim

although I do expect that an Elim voted for Mage, I do not think that two would gang up on a fellow elim on the first round, suspicisions TUO, Azmine King, and Danex in that order.

I think I would fall into a contradictory category by your logic, although I didn't vote for Mage D1, did I not start the wagon on him today. So I want to know where that would place me depending on his flip.

[Mage he/him]

@Lahilt Okay, my reads. I'll guess I'll just go through the player list.

TJ, has not posted since the beginning of day one. Not sure what to think of that. It could be suspicious, but I feel like an elim would be more active because they had an important role.

Matrim's Dice, is voting for me, so that biases me a bit, but beyond that they don't seem suspicious. All their logic for their actions seems sound. They claimed to not know about the elim doc, but that could be a clever ruse. From the previous games I have looked at, Mat seems like a master so anything's possible. (this game is turning me paranoid)

The Unknown Order, has posted sparsely, but consistently. This could be the result of a busy schedule so I won't read into it too much. They would have voted me D1, but claim to have forgotten. What to make of that? No idea. Wanting me dead could mark them elim, because I believe the elims are encouraging the vote on me to cast suspicion off of them. Or the forgetting could have been on purpose because they are vil and want me alive, or are elim and for some reason don't want me dead.

Araris, on D1 used my flawed math as a reason to be suspicious. I did read my GM PM, but legitimately did not think through the probability in that post. The point of that post wasn't to calculate probabilities, it was to get a random vote out there to see what happened. They kind of seized on that a lot and kicked off the exe Mage bandwagon.

Archer, made a good point during the first night that we do need to kill someone because the easiest way for elims to win would be by stalling every vote. I agree with this point, I just don't agree with the subject of it: me. Seeing from their point of view, it would make sense to vote me, so I don't suspect them too much. However anything that seems unsuspicious could be suspicious in and of itself. Paranoia.

Ashwastaken, not sure what to think. What does it mean to "claim elim"? Going by gut feeling I don't strongly suspect them, but I have no evidence whatsoever to back that up.

Azmine King, like unknown order forgot to switch to me D1. Same logic there. They now are very much wanting to get a lynch. I get that, because it is the only thing we can do as a village, I just wish it weren't me. Gut feeling wants to suspect them, but rationality doesn't. Make what you will of that.

Danex, one of the ones that would have switched to me but forgot. They actually said they maybe would have switched to me. I think that they, like the rest of us, realize the importance of needing to kill for information, but originally they didn't want it to be me. They now are voting for me, but that might just be for a consensus. I don't know. My self-preservation bias is showing itself again.

Lahilt, at this point all the different players are blurring together in my head. They haven't done anything outright suspicious. I think they are voting for me, but would be willing to switch if someone more suspicious was presented. They don't necessarily suspect me, but realize that we need to do something and get information.

I think that's everyone. Tani is dead, not sure what to make of that, and I don't suspect myself. These reads are probably wildly inaccurate, and not what you are looking for, but I hope they clarify some things about my thought process.

[|TJ| he/him]

Yikes, we didn't have a D1 vote and I almost got killed. Sorry guys, been a busy couple of days. 

Alright, now we gotta think why the Mage vote didn't go through. I know I'm village so the shift from me to Mage is either v/e or v/v meaning whoever shifted from me to Mage is village, hence I'm v reading Archer. 

The only possible reasons why Mage vote didn't go through was either because - 

• they are elim and were vote-protected, which would make voters on me suspicious
• they are village but elim team composition did not want a D1 vote, which would make people on side trains suspicious
• they are village but the elims just did not have the numbers and the support from village to push the vote through, meaning people on Mage are suspicious

Kinda feel like option 2 and 3 are more likely. Azmine and TUO were on sidetrains (group 1/2). Danex and Lahilt stayed on me and cited they did not come back to change the so they also belong to group (1/2). And of course, Mat, Ash and Araris on group 3. Mat could have been subconsciously conditioned to kill Tani as he voted for her during the day, but I feel like that's pushing it. We can also see players with similar activities to that of Tani and ask why she was preferred to the others. I had lesser content than her but had 3 votes so my death would have revealed suspicious parties among my voters. I'll go for group 3 and specifically ashwastaken.

[Mage he/him]

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

Yikes, we didn't have a D1 vote and I almost got killed. Sorry guys, been a busy couple of . 

Alright, now we gotta think why the Mage vote didn't go through. I know I'm so the shift from me to Mage is either v/e or v/v meaning whoever shifted from me to Mage is village, hence I'm v reading Archer. 

The only possible reasons why Mage vote didn't go through was either because - 

• they are elim and were vote-protected, which would make voters on me suspicious
• they are village but elim team composition did not want a D1 vote, which would make people on side trains suspicious
• they are village but the elims just did not have the numbers and the support from village to push the vote through, meaning people on Mage are suspicious

Kinda feel like option 2 and 3 are more likely. Azmine and TUO were on sidetrains (group 1/2). Danex and Lahilt stayed on me and cited they did not come back to change the so they also belong to group (1/2). And of course, Mat, Ash and Araris on group 3. Mat could have been subconsciously conditioned to kill Tani as he voted for her during the , but I feel like that's pushing it. We can also see players with similar activities to that of Tani and ask why she was preferred to the others. I had lesser content than her but had 3 votes so my death would have revealed suspicious parties among my voters. I'll go for group 3 and specifically ashwastaken.

I concur. It is either option two or three, and I have been leaning toward three. Therefore I'll vote the same as you Azmine ashwastaken.

[ashwastaken]

7 hours ago, |TJ| said:

And of course, Mat, Ash and Araris on group 3. Mat could have been subconsciously conditioned to kill Tani as he voted for her during the day, but I feel like that's pushing it. We can also see players with similar activities to that of Tani and ask why she was preferred to the others. I had lesser content than her but had 3 votes so my death would have revealed suspicious parties among my voters. I'll go for group 3 and specifically ashwastaken.

I honestly don’t really understand this reasoning (why specially me?) but sure I suppose? I think what’s more likely is just that some people were inactive around rollover, and tani’s ‘sorry’ kind of makes me think she was going to switch onto mage, but didn’t. 

 

18 minutes ago, Mage said:

I concur. It is either option two or three, and I have been leaning toward three. Therefore I'll vote the same as you Azmine ashwastaken.

This really just feels like you’re eager to find a new vot train other than yourself, but I’d probably do the same if I was a really new village player. Still, mage because we should lynch someone today, it’s really the only thing you village people can do.

[Mage he/him]

Well rust it all. Looks like I’m gonna die.

Unless out of the collective mercy of your hearts you want to switch to another vote.

[---]

Cycle's Over!

[---]

- Night 2 -

Mage has been removed! They were a Loyal Honorspren

Mage (7): ashwastaken, Danex, Araris, TUO, Matrim, Archer, Azmine, Lahilt
ashwastaken (2): Mage, TJ

---

Night 2 has started, and will end in 24 hours, on Wednesday, October 24th at 4PM PST

• Days are 48 hours long and Nights are 24. 
• There is an activity filter of 2 Turns (One cycle.)
• There are NO PMs.
• The Elims may communicate in their doc.

 

Spoiler

1. @Araris Valerian - Tresspasser's will

2. @Archer - Spren 10

3. @ashwastaken - Oak

4. @Azmine_king

5. @Danex

6. @Lahilt - Lahilt

7. Mage - Therla - Loyal Honor Spren

8. @Matrim's Dice - Phrylsena

9. Tani - Loyal Honor Spren

10. @|TJ| - Fiorlan

11. @The Unknown Order

 

Edited October 27, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

I want to give points to TJ for that but I also am paranoid about giving points to TJ for that :P.

Sorry Mage, hope you stick around for future games.

I'll reread/post conclusions later this cycle.

[Archer he/him]

Well. That's frustrating. I think I'm actually less annoyed that we wasted five days on killing a teammate and more annoyed that I locked in on Mage and didn't really give them a chance. +1 to what Mat said, I hope you join us again soon. 

I gotta reread, but my initial thought is that that was probably easy killin' for the elims. TJ had the luxery of being able to step off, be it distancing or foresight, because the mix was decided in C1. 

How unlikely do y'all think it is for the elims to be the A team? :P. Also, Ashwastaken, why do you keep saying you're evil? And everyone who said any flip is a good flip, what were we supposed to learn here? 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

And everyone who said any flip is a good flip, what were we supposed to learn here?

While I didn’t say that, we learned that Mage is village and we managed to drag Mat out of his tunnel.

11 minutes ago, Archer said:

How unlikely do y'all think it is for the elims to be the A team?

You realize that you would be on this team, right? And since I would be on it as well, it makes perfect sense for me to :bus: you. Archer.

[Archer he/him]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

While I didn’t say that, we learned that Mage is village and we managed to drag Mat out of his tunnel.

You realize that you would be on this team, right? And since I would be on it as well, it makes perfect sense for me to :bus: you. Archer.

You right. Shame on you Mat, for tunneling. The rest of us engaged in perfectly well thought out... inquisitive digging. 

Also, I reckon a four-person team of A-listers would be overpowered (because of the awesome alliteration). But a three-man Azmine, Araris, and Ashwastaken group would work out fine. :P.

EDIT:

Reads list, from most villagery to least:

TJ:

-Extremely cool under pressure D1. (Reason/Excuse: IRL stuff)

-Voted Ashwastaken D2. I like their view at the time that it looked like the elims tried to kill them and didn’t have the votes for whatever reason.

Araris:

-Second Mage vote. Araris gets away with piggybacking as an elim a lot

-Implied he thought elims had active Day doc

-Said okay voting off new player D1. Perhaps a sensitive subject

-Pinged TUO, Tani, TJ, and Az. If an elim, I’m guessing one of those pings was a shoutout to a partner, and the others were to conceal the signalling.

Mat:

-Tani liked the Mat-TUO e-e theory

-First Mage vote! With no explanation! That’s pretty villagery

-Asked about ethics of voting off a new player D1 – possibly cued Ashwastaken to switch to Araris

-Jokingly(?) asked for village cred from not knowing about elim doc rules

-Posted a reads list! With no reasons

TUO:
-Called Az’s vote contrived… which was stolen reasoning from Araris’ post

Ashwastaken

-“RNG” self-voted initially and advertised their pokes as pokes. And backed off of them quickly when got a response. In their self-analysis gave themselves a pass for poke voting, which could show e!overthinking. Doing a self-analysis is odd.

-Impatient to get the discussion going D1, but specifically said later they won’t post in depth notes unless asked for an opinion.

-Made comment about wanting to know what the spec doc was saying, which maybe stemmed from a conversation with Illwei in their GM PM? And elims usually talk to the GM more. That one’s a stretch.

-On Team Info Exe (pushing hard for an exe, any exe, even as they say it might kill a villager)

-In the back half of D1 there’s a stretch where Mat randomly said they had an irrational elim read on Araris and then Ashwastaken also came up with a mild elim read on Araris, both of which seemed out of the blue and shortly after the discussion about whether Mage should get a rookie pass.

-I still can’t find where they claimed elim, but they’re eager to advertise it. There’s a lot that could be performative to their discussion

Lahilt:

-Advertised their vote on TJ as a poke D1. No response to TJ becoming viable wagon because of it. (Excuse: IRL stuff)

-On Team Info Exe. Leaned into it D2 as sole reason for their vote.

Danex:

-Tani voted for them. More interestingly, Mat said Danex-Tani likely v-v, so the kill removes a threat and gets village cred.

-On Team Info Exe – sheeped Mat for D2 vote too

-Gave a lengthy rebuttal to Tani connection accusations. Seems like e!overthinking

Azmine:

-First post didn’t have a poke, which was a surprising bit of hesitation. They then voted Mat at random.

-On Team Info Exe

-About faced and came out strongly on Mage D2. I think they read the elim doc in the Night and the team decided to go after Mage

Edited October 27, 2021 by Archer

[Lahilt he/him]

11 hours ago, Illwei said:

- Night 2 -

Mage has died! They were a Loyal Honorspren

Mage (7): ashwastaken, Danex, Araris, TUO, Matrim, Archer, Azmine
ashwastaken (2): Mage, TJ

Not Voting: (1): Lahilt

---

Night 2 has started, and will end in 24 hours, on Wednesday, October 24th at 4PM PST

• Days are 48 hours long and Nights are 24. 
• There is an activity filter of 2 Turns (One cycle.)
• There are NO PMs.
• The Elims may communicate in their doc.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

1. @Araris Valerian - Tresspasser's will

2. @Archer - Spren 10

3. @ashwastaken - Oak

4. @Azmine_king

5. @Danex

6. @Lahilt - Lahilt

7. Mage - Therla - Loyal Honor Spren

8. @Matrim's Dice - Phrylsena

9. Tani - Loyal Honor Spren

10. @|TJ| - Fiorlan

11. @The Unknown Order

 

I did vote for Mage, is this a mistake?

[---]

The cycle is over.

[---]

- Day 3 -

TUO has been released into the physical world! They were a Loyal Honor Spren

---

Day 3 has started, and will end in 48 hours, on Friday, October 29th at 4PM PST

• Days are 48 hours long and Nights are 24. 
• There is an activity filter of 2 Turns (One cycle.)
• There are NO PMs.
• The Elims may not communicate in their doc.
• There are 8 players left, and 5 votes are needed for a removal.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Araris Valerian - Tresspasser's will

2. @Archer - Spren 10

3. @ashwastaken - Oak

4. @Azmine_king

5. @Danex

6. @Lahilt - Lahilt

7. Mage - Therla - Loyal Honor Spren

8. @Matrim's Dice - Phrylsena

9. Tani - Loyal Honor Spren

10. @|TJ| - Fiorlan

11. The Unknown Order - Loyal Honor Spren

Edited October 28, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

I lied; life got in the way. I’ll do something tonight :/

[Lahilt he/him]

 

While reading through the post for day 2 I found this interesting from Ashwastaken. The last part where they say  'it’s really the only thing you village people can do'. Is this an Elim claim or am I reading this wrong? @ashwastaken

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Lahilt

[Azmine_king]

@Illwei will we be informed of MYLO/LYLO?

[Archer he/him]

1 hour ago, Azmine_king said:

@Illwei will we be informed of MYLO/LYLO?

What's MYLO? 

Nothing, what's the mylo with you? 

2 hours ago, Lahilt said:

While reading through the post for day 2 I found this interesting from Ashwastaken. The last part where they say  'it’s really the only thing you village people can do'. Is this an Elim claim or am I reading this wrong? 

They've been kinda claiming elim the whole game through. The skeptic in me says someone told you in the elim doc that that was an easy vote to camp on. I've pulled that move as an elim before. 

I'm gonna kick things off with a vote on Dannex. See my reads list for the rationale. 

Also, TUO is an interesting pick. I guess thread control isn't a concern. I was lowkey hoping to get NKed before this cycle because starting tommorow, I've got a busy few days coming up. Perhaps they're just playing suboptimally to spite me :P. 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Archer

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, Archer said:

Also, TUO is an interesting pick. I guess thread control isn't a concern. I was lowkey hoping to get NKed before this cycle because starting tommorow, I've got a busy few days coming up. Perhaps they're just playing suboptimally to spite me :P. 

This pings many of my bells right now.

Also, can bluetext but I won’t because I don’t want to need to; was busy tonight. And I’m dead tired. Will post summary and new actual thoughts tomorrow morning or I give you permission to majority exe me

[|TJ| he/him]

Alright, elims are going for low info kills, Tani and TUO preferred over the likes of Az, Danex and Lahilt which might be indicative. I do think group 3 which I mentioned last cycle is more probable than 2. Someone on Mage in D1 is evil [Mat, Araris, Ash] (excluding Archer, I'm v reading him) and someone else who could not switch to Mage for whatever reason [Danex, Lahilt, Az]. I'm thinking 2 from the first part and 1 from the second. Also, note it's unlikely that Araris and Ash are e/e because of D1 interactions. I'll vote for Lahilt because their vote on me D1 felt like bandwagoning. 

[Azmine_king]

7 hours ago, Archer said:

What's MYLO? 

Nothing, what's the mylo with you? 

Mislynch and Lose, basically you must lynch correctly to win, alternatively you can no lynch which is optimal